Gold price has been predicted to reach $3,500 in the next three months amid deteriorating U.S. economic indicators, rising inflationary pressures, and intensifying geopolitical risks.
In a note released Monday, Citi raised its three-month gold price target to $3,500 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,300.
It also widened its expected trading range to $3,300–$3,600, compared to the earlier projection of $3,100–$3,500.
“U.S. growth and tariff-related inflation concerns are set to remain elevated during 2H’25, which alongside a weaker dollar, are set to drive gold moderately higher, to new all-time highs,” Citi analysts stated.
Economic Headwinds Fuel Bullish Sentiment
Citi’s bullish outlook comes amid signs of economic strain in the United States. The bank pointed to weaker labor market data in Q2 2025, including a sharp slowdown in nonfarm payroll growth.
According to recent figures, U.S. employers added just 73,000 jobs in July, following a downwardly revised 14,000 in June, a trend that has revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
The CME FedWatch tool now places the probability of a rate cut at 81%.
The dollar also weakened last week, further supporting gold’s upward momentum. A softer dollar typically boosts demand for gold, which is priced in U.S. currency.
Geopolitical Risks and Tariff Shock Add Fuel
Citi also cited elevated geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, as a key driver of safe-haven demand.
In addition, President Donald Trump’s recent imposition of steep tariffs on exports from major trading partners, including Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan, has stoked fears of prolonged trade disruptions.
“The tariffs imposed last week on scores of countries are likely to stay in place rather than be cut as part of continuing negotiations,” said U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during an appearance on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday.
Gold Demand Surges Across Sectors
Citi estimates that gross gold demand has surged by over one-third since mid-2022, nearly doubling prices by Q2 2025. The rally has been fueled by strong investment flows, moderate central bank purchases, and resilient jewellery demand, even in the face of elevated prices.
At 0340 GMT on Monday, spot gold was trading at $3,356.88 per ounce, inching closer to Citi’s revised target.
Gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset continues to shine amid economic uncertainty and global instability. With inflation concerns mounting and institutional confidence in U.S. statistics and Federal Reserve policy waning, investors appear to be doubling down on the precious metal.
