Nigeria has, for the first time, imported more crude oil from the United States than it exported, marking a historic reversal in petroleum flow between the two nations.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), this development occurred in February and March 2025, driven by operational changes within Nigeria’s refining landscape and reduced crude demand on the U.S. East Coast.
The shift is attributed primarily to the rise in crude demand from the Dangote Refinery, which began processing oil in January 2024 and is on track to reach its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (b/d) later this year.
Located near Lagos, the facility is the largest single-train refinery in the world and represents a key component of Nigeria’s bid to reduce its reliance on imported refined fuels.
Oil Trade Reversal: The Numbers Behind the Trend
According to the EIA’s latest figures:
- U.S. exports to Nigeria surged to 111,000 b/d in February and 169,000 b/d in March.
- Meanwhile, U.S. imports from Nigeria fell to 54,000 b/d and 72,000 b/d, respectively—down from 133,000 b/d in January.
This reversal was partly due to refinery maintenance at the Phillips 66 Bayway facility in New Jersey, which slowed U.S. demand for imported crude. Later in the year, imports of Nigerian crude resumed as Bayway returned to normal operations and the Dangote refinery underwent unplanned maintenance.
“The new refinery in Nigeria and some issues in securing domestic supplies played a role for those unique flows earlier this year,” said Giovanni Staunovo, energy analyst at UBS.
“Going forward… it is difficult to forecast if the volume flowing from the U.S. to Nigeria will persist.”
Dangote Refinery Driving Domestic Demand and Global Disruption
Speaking at the West African Refined Fuel Conference in Abuja, Aliko Dangote, President/CEO of Dangote Group, confirmed that his refinery sources 9–10 million barrels monthly from the U.S. and other suppliers.
Ironically, he noted, some of this crude is purchased from international traders who buy Nigerian crude at a premium, only to sell it back, highlighting inefficiencies in Africa’s energy value chain.
“We produce plenty of crude, but we still import over 120 million tonnes of refined products annually,” Dangote stated.
“That’s a $90 billion market opportunity captured by countries with surplus refining capacity, while we export jobs and import poverty.”
Dangote decried the substandard quality of fuels often exported to African markets, urging a shift toward domestic refining, quality control, and regional self-sufficiency in energy.
What You Should Know
- Analysts such as Eli Tesfaye of RJO Futures emphasized that this trend is likely a temporary snapshot rather than a permanent shift in energy flow.
- Yet it underscores the impact of domestic infrastructure on global petroleum trade, and the pivotal role emerging economies like Nigeria now play.
- Dangote concluded by championing free market economics, while advocating for trade policies rooted in efficiency, comparative advantage, and quality standards.
