Funding cuts to the global HIV response could trigger a surge of 6 million new infections and 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has warned.
In its 2025 Global AIDS Update released on Thursday, the agency called for urgent international action to prevent the reversal of decades of progress in the fight against HIV/AIDS.
UNAIDS noted that the abrupt withdrawal of support by the world’s largest donor earlier in 2025 severely disrupted HIV treatment and prevention programmes across many countries.
Currently, international assistance accounts for about 80% of HIV prevention efforts in low- and middle-income countries.
“UNAIDS modelling shows that if the funding permanently disappears, there could be an additional 6 million HIV infections and an additional 4 million AIDS-related deaths by 2029,” Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of UNAIDS.
At the same time, she noted, the number of countries criminalising populations most at risk of HIV has increased for the first time since UNAIDS began reporting.
“The AIDS response may be in crisis, but we have the power to transform. Communities, governments, and the United Nations are rising to the challenge. Now, we must get to work,” she said.
Emerging shift to sustainable financing
Despite setbacks, progress is still within reach. According to UNAIDS, the consensus behind the old model of financing the HIV response may be fading, but a more sustainable path is emerging.
“Twenty-five of the 60 low- and middle-income countries included in this report have found ways to increase HIV spending from domestic resources into 2026.
“This is the future of the HIV response nationally owned and led, sustainable, inclusive, and multisectoral,” said Byanyima.
However, she cautioned that this transformation cannot happen overnight. “Global solidarity and renewed commitment from funding partners will be needed as countries plan and lead sustainable transitions towards self-financing.
“The HIV response has already saved 26.9 million lives. With an HIV prevention revolution, we could end AIDS as a public health threat, saving many more lives.
“And it could be better value for money too: UNAIDS estimates that if the world embraces new technologies, efficiencies and approaches, the annual cost of the HIV response could fall by around US$7 billion,” she Byanyima.
More insights
The 2025 UNAIDS Global AIDS Update reveals that by the end of 2024, just before a sudden collapse in funding triggered a crisis, the global AIDS response had achieved remarkable progress.
Efforts by communities and governments have successfully reduced new HIV infections by 40% and AIDS-related deaths by 56% since 2010.
However, significant challenges remain. The report shows that despite the progress, HIV prevention efforts are still falling short. In 2024, there were 1.3 million new infections, nearly unchanged from the previous year, highlighting persistent gaps in access and effectiveness.
Yet 2025 also brings new hope.
- The year began with excitement around lenacapavir, a breakthrough long-acting medicine capable of preventing HIV with just two injections per year.
- Lenacapavir is part of a new generation of long-acting prevention tools, including potential annual injections and monthly oral tablets that could become widely available in the coming years.
UNAIDS believes the world could be on the verge of an HIV prevention revolution, one that could dramatically reduce new infections and move us closer to epidemic control. But achieving this will require collective global action to overcome monopolies, drive down prices, and ensure equitable access to these life-saving innovations for all who need them.
