I still remember reading Ron Chernow’s Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller, Sr. during my master’s programme in international relations and political economy at the London School of Economics.
The book wasn’t on any mandatory reading list, but I was fascinated by how one man’s strategic control of oil refining and logistics in 19th-century America reshaped not just markets, but the architecture of capitalism itself.
Rockefeller understood that the real leverage in oil wasn’t only in exploration or production.
It was in owning the routes to market, such as the pipelines, the railroads, and the distribution channels. His genius (and controversy) lay in turning vertical integration into an empire. One that eventually became so dominant, it had to be broken up.
Fast forward to 2025, and I can’t help but think of that legacy as I reflect on Dangote’s latest N720 billion investment in 4,000 compressed natural gas (CNG) powered trucks. To many, this is just a logistics play, but to me, it signals that there may be a quiet but sweeping recalibration of power in Nigeria’s energy value chain.
To be clear, this isn’t a call for Dangote’s empire to be broken up à la Rockefeller. Rather, it’s a recognition that what he is building is structurally and economically revolutionary. As with all revolutions, the ripple effects will reshape not just business models but entire markets.
Understanding the economic opportunity
The headlines say this investment could save Nigerians N1.7 trillion annually in logistics costs. It could ease inflationary pressure, reduce fuel distribution bottlenecks, and enable millions of MSMEs to breathe a little easier. Beyond the savings is a bigger question of whether this will spark a systemic shift in how we think about energy infrastructure, or simply centralise it.
To appreciate the scale of this move, we need to look at the unit economics of CNG-powered trucks. A typical diesel truck covering long distances in Nigeria may consume 30 – 40 liters of diesel per 100 km, at current prices of around ₦1,200 per litre, translating to a fuel cost of N36,000 – N48,000 per 100 km.
By contrast, a CNG-powered truck consumes about 15 – 20 kg of CNG per 100 km, and CNG is currently priced around N200 – N250 per kg. That brings the fuel cost to just N3,000 – N5,000 per 100 km, an estimated 80 – 90% reduction in fuel cost per kilometre.
(Side Note: Prices vary by location and availability of refuelling infrastructure: Areas with few compression stations or long trucking routes may see prices go up to N300/kg. In addition, bulk industrial users (e.g., Dangote’s internal fleet) may negotiate rates below N200/kg, given volume and direct supply arrangements. During the rollout of Nigeria’s National Gas Expansion Programme (NGEP), CNG was priced between ₦190 – N220/kg in select Lagos and Benin stations.)
Now extrapolate this across 4,000 trucks, each running long-haul daily routes across Nigeria’s major corridors. The logistics cost of delivering refined fuel (PMS, AGO, etc) from depots or refinery sites to inland markets, historically a key driver of pump prices, drops drastically. That’s where the N1.7 trillion annual savings come from. So the conclusion is that we will see accumulated reductions in per-trip transportation costs, multiplied across the national fuel logistics system.
It goes beyond fuel. CNG-powered engines have fewer moving parts, lower combustion temperatures, and produce less carbon residue - translating into lower maintenance costs and longer engine life. Over time, fleet operators benefit from reduced total cost of ownership, making CNG trucks more economically resilient in volatile fuel pricing environments.
In a country where logistics account for up to 40% of product pricing in some sectors, this shift in trucking economics could be transformational. It potentially creates room for:
- Price stability at the pump,
- More affordable consumer goods, as supply chain costs fall,and;
- Improved margins for SMEs and local distributors.
However, this value will only be fully unlocked if the savings are passed down the chain – not just absorbed at the top.
What This Means for CNG Development
This is really a test case for whether Nigeria can build an entire CNG ecosystem from gas processing plants to virtual pipelines, modular compression hubs, truck assembly, and retail refueling networks. For entrepreneurial minds, if done right, it could catalyse:
- A new industrial base around CNG components and vehicles;
- Franchise opportunities for CNG truck leasing and maintenance SMEs;
- The development of green industrial parks powered by domestic gas.
- A redirection of fuel subsidy resources into productive CNG infrastructure.
The private sector can’t do this alone; however, it will require a deliberate state response – an industrial policy approach that sees CNG not as a niche substitute for diesel, but as a strategic pillar for economic diversification and energy security.
The Monopoly Question We Can’t Ignore
Like Rockefeller, Dangote’s boldness raises necessary questions about the concentration of market power. What happens when one player controls both the supply (refined product) and the route to market (CNG-powered distribution)? What safeguards ensure that this efficiency dividend is passed on to consumers, and not simply captured as margin?
I say this not to cast aspersions, but to encourage foresight and policy coherence. Monopoly is not always intentional – it often grows in the absence of countervailing structures. If CNG is truly the future, then regulators, financiers, and technocrats must work to ensure this future is shared, competitive, and scalable
Last week, during the Afreximbank meetings in Abuja, I attended a brilliant fireside chat where Dangote was interviewed by CNN’s Eleni Giokos. When the topic of his purported monopoly came up, he responded that fears of dominance would be tempered by his plan to list the refinery on the stock market in 2026, arguing that the public would then be co-owners. We gave him a rousing round of applause.
The truth is listing a company doesn’t automatically democratise power or address structural concentration. Public ownership through equity markets can still leave effective control in the hands of a majority shareholder or founder group – especially if strategic decision-making, board appointments, and operational direction remain tightly held. Market listing may improve transparency, but it doesn’t always deliver competition.
We must create room for other CNG fleet operators, build open-access gas refueling networks, and enable state-backed financing schemes for SMEs to participate in this evolving landscape. With the Presidential CNG Initiative launched by President Tinubu aiming to accelerate gas adoption nationwide, the timing couldn’t be better for public-private synergy. Dangote – more than anyone – has the opportunity and influence to lead by example, by helping shape an ecosystem that enables others to thrive alongside him. He is already on the path there and must be supported and encouraged. Without that, we risk replicating old inefficiencies in a cleaner, shinier wrapper.
In all honesty, my take is that Dangote has probably lit a match under the CNG opportunity. Some might think this conclusion is overblown. Nevertheless, now is the time for policymakers, financiers, gas companies and entrepreneurs to fan the flames of ecosystem development.
Now is our window to build an open, inclusive ecosystem, before the system settles into fixed patterns. Let’s design capital structures to back CNG ventures. Let’s incentivise the local assembly of trucks. Let’s invest in pipeline infrastructure, virtual compression hubs, and technical training programmes.
When I read Titan at LSE, I didn’t think the story of 19th-century America’s oil magnates would one day shape how I see energy strategy in Africa. Here we are now, facing a moment of transformation, where gas, logistics, and ambition are converging. The opportunity is immense, and the stakes are high.
About the Author
Rolake Akinkugbe-Filani is a Global Energy Finance leader and the Founder and Managing Director/CEO of Energy Inc. Advisors, a strategic advisory firm focused on capital mobilisation, market strategy, and investor engagement across Africa’s energy sector.
She previously served as GM &Group Head of Investor Relations at a Tier-1 Nigerian bank, Head of Energy & Oil and Gas at a leading investment bank, Senior Africa Advisor on Energy for IFU Danish Investment Fund and Group Head of Energy Research at a pan-African bank.
A respected industry voice, Rolake blends deep capital markets experience with technical energy sector finance expertise, having led and advised on multi-billion-dollar transactions and capital raises. She is recognised as one of Africa’s leading authorities at the intersection of energy, finance, strategy and leadership
