Bitcoin consolidated on Thursday, while the wider crypto market remained subdued amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a hawkish U.S Central Bank.
The pioneer crypto asset traded at $105,200 at the time of publication.
Its recent performance has been clouded by renewed fighting in the Middle East; rising tensions between Israel and Iran have seeped into global prices and rattled the digital asset space.
Bitfinex researchers highlighted that Bitcoin’s weak buying pressure has triggered fresh selling, leaving BTC exposed and warning that a breakdown might follow if key support fails.
Their latest note compares the current retreat to earlier capitulation phases that often marked a local floor. They argue Bitcoin needs to hold between $102,000 and $104,000 to indicate that the worst squeeze is over; if that zone holds, a rally toward $112,000 or even a new record could unfold within two months.
Bitcoin inflows remain healthy
Meanwhile, US spot BTC exchange-traded funds received $388 million on Wednesday, extending a streak of eight consecutive days of inflows despite the Israel-Iran conflict. According to Farside Investors data, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw the largest inflows, with $104.4 million and $278.9 million, respectively.
Crypto analytics platform Santiment stated in a June 18 X post that the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep general interest rates unchanged at 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent, a move largely anticipated by the broader market.
- The strong inflow on June 18 indicates that institutional confidence remains robust as Bitcoin (BTC $104,777) held steady in the $105,000 range despite renewed Iran-Israel tensions initially rattling the markets.
- An average of 566 BTC per day is entering this long-term in contrast to the current daily issuance rate of 450 BTC “ancient supply” bucket, according to a June 18 report from Fidelity Digital Assets.
- The U.S Fed chief also stated that he doesn’t anticipate any indications of a slowdown in the economy anytime soon. He stated that “it’s been amazing to see how the US economy has defied all kinds of forecasts for it to weaken, really over the last three years.”
The Fed has decided to keep rates unchanged at this meeting for the fourth consecutive time, according to The Kobeissi Letter.
- This pattern could support the idea that Bitcoin is a scarce asset since it is the first time in its history that long-held coins are increasing more quickly than the new supply. The percentage of ancient supply also tends to rise daily, with daily declines occurring less frequently than 3 percent, according to the report.
- The ancient supply is now worth more than 34.4 million Bitcoin, or about 17% of the total supply, and it continues to grow every day in a manner that has changed after the 2024 halving. The coins of Satoshi Nakamoto also comprise about one-third of the ancient supply, though some are likely lost.
- However, the ancient supply has decreased more frequently since the US election in 2024, which may indicate that some long-term holders are taking profits or moving coins in response to market uncertainty.
The study also found that the supply of five-year holders had declined daily 39 percent of the time after the election as of June 8, which is three times higher than the average rate of 13 percent.
“Some of the sideways and downward price action seen during the first quarter of 2025 may be explained by this long-term holder movement,” Wainwright noted.
The fact that ancient supply typically outpaces incoming supply does not always translate into higher prices; in fact, it can have the opposite effect in shorter periods.
Hawkish U.S Fed weighs on Bitcoin
American Central Bank, popularly referred to as the U.S Fed, kept interest rates unchanged. Even though there was disagreement among policymakers regarding the necessity of rate cuts, they are still anticipated to reduce rates by half a percentage point this year.
Powell forecast that summer inflation in goods prices would rise, and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs would trickle down to consumers. Investors continued to focus on Middle East developments as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its seventh day on Thursday.
President Donald Trump continued his rhetoric on the U.S Fed’s hawkish stance, referring to Chairman Jerome Powell as “stupid” earlier this month. The Fed’s decision comes amid growing political pressure.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was referred to as “too late Powell” by President Donald Trump, who has been calling for policymakers to lower interest rates
