Nigeria and Angola are emerging as key players in Africa’s energy transformation, poised to lead the continent’s push for energy security as refining capacity is projected to rise significantly, reaching up to 90%.
This projection was made in the Africa Finance Corporation’s (AFC) newly-released report “State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025”.
The AFC stated, “If fully utilized, refining capacity could meet up to 90% of the continent’s fuel demand—compared to just 45% last year.”
The corporation noted further that, to unlock this potential, two complementary investment tracks will be required.
“First, brownfield upgrades: over $16 billion is needed to modernize existing refineries, meet clean fuel standards, and reduce reliance on imports. Second, greenfield investment is key to meeting future demand, with Nigeria and Angola emerging as new continental hubs.”
Dangote Refinery crucial in leading the charge
According to the report, the key to achieving energy security is the state-of-the-art Dangote Refinery facility, which has a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
The state of the continent’s refining industry has left it heavily dependent on imports of petroleum products, which are still subsidized in several countries.
According to the report, “In 2023, 55% of Africa’s demand for petroleum products was met by imports. However, if refining capacity were fully utilized, this number could drop to only 10%. In that regard, the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery, along with the gradual re-opening of the Port Harcourt and Warri Refineries in Nigeria (2024-2026) could significantly transform the continent’s fuel security landscape in the short term.”
The AFC noted further, stating “the sector’s growth is closely tied to the modernization of existing refineries in West and Central Africa, overcoming feedstock and financing challenges for new projects, and addressing critical infrastructure bottlenecks in transportation and distribution networks.
“To achieve fuel security and meet the continent’s increasing demand, Africa must prioritize investment in refinery upgrades, develop efficient distribution systems—including pipelines, railways, and diversified port infrastructure. As new energy infrastructure is built, it must also be resilient and capable of supporting future energy transitions. The successful integration of these elements will be crucial for achieving long-term fuel security and energy independence across the continent,” AFC stated.
What you should know
In May 2023, Africa’s largest oil refinery, the Dangote Refinery, was commissioned in Nigeria, with hopes that it would help alleviate the country’s chronic fuel shortages.
On Thursday, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu lauded the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, describing it as a “great point of reference, a great phenomenon of our time, and a massive investment” that showcases Nigeria’s capacity for industrial greatness and economic transformation.
The President thanked the owner, Alhaji Aliko Dangote, for his interest in developing the country through continuous investments.
