Former President of the Nigerian Bar Association, Dr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN), has called for a complete and radical shift in Nigeria’s political and economic strategy, stating that only a “disruptive development plan” can enable the country to attain a national budget of N500 trillion by 2027.
Agbakoba made the remarks during an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday while discussing his newly released policy report, “Governance and Economic Analysis and Forecast 2025.”
“It does look ironic that this sort of proposal will come—going to a national budget of N500 trillion looks absolutely ridiculous, but I insist, it’s entirely possible if Nigeria is willing to abandon business as usual,“ he admitted
Agbakoba emphasized that the nation’s development history, dominated by traditional long-term plans, has failed to deliver real transformation. According to him, the issue is not the lack of resources but poor utilization, misaligned governance, and outdated political arrangements.
“We’ve had national development plans for the last 60 or 70 years, and I suggest to you that none have really worked. What I’m suggesting in order to drive this process is an entirely disruptive development plan,” he said.
Drawing inspiration from major global economic shifts—such as Donald Trump’s tariff reforms in the U.S., Mark Carney’s interventions in the bond market, and China’s attempt to decouple from global trade systems—Agbakoba argued that Nigeria must also chart a new path, starting with two key interventions: governance reform and economic reorientation.
Downsizing governance and devolution
In his assessment, Nigeria’s current federal structure is not only bloated but fundamentally unproductive. He called for a radical trimming of federal institutions and the decentralization of power to the states and local governments.
“There’s no way Nigeria can be successful unless it decapitates its current political arrangements. The federal government must downsize,” he said.
“The Oronsaye report is still gathering dust. Why do we have the Office of the Head of Service, the SGF, and the Chief of Staff all coexisting? The Office of HOS is a colonial relic.”
He urged the government to emulate systems with leaner structures, pointing out that the United States operates efficiently with just 16 federal departments. In contrast, Nigeria has proliferated ministries and agencies with overlapping mandates.
Agbakoba stressed the need for states and local governments to become economic powerhouses by devolving both political and fiscal powers to them.
“The federal government must devolve powers to the states and the local governments so they all become economic-bearing entities,” he said.
Economic Reform: National Control and Strategic Ownership
The legal luminary also spotlighted the oil and gas sector as one of Nigeria’s biggest missed opportunities. According to him, the country continues to outsource its oil capacity to international oil companies—leaving only a small fraction of generated wealth within its borders.
“My proposal is to do what the Saudi Arabians do—use only service contracts. We must own everything, so that 80 to 90 percent of the wealth from oil stays in the country. Right now, less than 10 percent does.”
He referenced recent successes in domestic revenue generation as a sign of what could be achieved with intentional reform. Citing the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) under its current leadership, Agbakoba noted the agency’s progress from generating N9 trillion to N50 trillion in tax revenue, with expectations of reaching N100 trillion in the near future.
“People doubted when we projected a N9 trillion economy. Now, look at what Zacch Adedeji has achieved. This shows it is possible to scale even higher.”
Agbakoba’s proposal for a N500 trillion national budget by 2027 may seem outlandish by today’s standards, but he believes the target is attainable with bold, decisive, and disruptive change across both governance and economic spheres.
“It is possible, it’s just a way to get things done in a different way”, he affirmed.
Nigeria is currently grappling with economic headwinds, including rising debt levels, high inflation, and dwindling oil revenues.
