Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank, Dr. Yemi Kale, has emphasized the need for Nigeria to achieve a 40% annual growth rate to reach the country’s ambitious one trillion-dollar economic growth vision.
His call came amid current economic realities with complications arising from the United States’ recent imposition of a 14% tariff on Nigerian exports.
Speaking at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos on Wednesday, Kale called for sustainable reforms to shield Nigerian exports from the fallout of U.S. trade policies.
“To reach a $1 trillion economy by the end of this administration’s term, Nigeria would require annual growth rates in excess of 40%—a pace that is virtually unprecedented and, under current conditions, simply unachievable,” he said.
Clear roadmap outlined
He outlined a clear roadmap for Nigeria to navigate the challenges posed by global trade shifts, urging the government to leverage the nation’s strengths, including its youthful population and abundant natural resources, to reposition itself as a key player in African and global trade.
“The path to economic resilience, inclusive prosperity, and reducing economic hardship is neither quick nor easy, but it is clear. We know what must be done. The foundational pillars are not in question,” Kale stated. He emphasized the importance of stabilizing the macro-economy, restoring credibility in fiscal and monetary policy, curbing inflation, and rebuilding investor confidence.
Kale also highlighted the need to diversify Nigeria’s productive base by unlocking the potential of agriculture, manufacturing, services, and the digital economy. “Invest in people and institutions because sustainable growth only happens when human capital is empowered and governance systems are effective,” he added.
Despite the challenges posed by the U.S. tariff hike, Kale expressed optimism about Nigeria’s ability to harness its opportunities. He stressed the importance of thoughtful policies that balance risks and potential, ensuring the country remains resilient in the face of global economic shifts.
Nigeria faces challenges of a shifting world order
Speaking at the event, President of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce Industries, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), Dele Oye, emphasized the urgent need for Nigeria to prioritize economic sovereignty and adopt a resilient, homegrown democracy.
Oye highlighted the impact of the U.S. administration’s isolationist policies and trade wars on global alliances, stating, “The current U.S. administration’s focus on isolationism and trade wars has led to a reevaluation of America’s long-standing alliances, leaving many nations, including Nigeria, to grapple with the complexities of a shifting world order.”
He stressed the importance of Nigeria developing a political structure capable of withstanding external pressures, adding, “For Nigeria, these developments underscore the necessity of prioritizing economic sovereignty and a shift to a homegrown democracy that is both viable and affordable.”
Despite the challenges, Oye expressed optimism about Nigeria’s future, citing advancements in technology, emerging trade partnerships, and the entrepreneurial spirit of its youth.
“The balance between these challenges and opportunities will shape Nigeria’s future, highlighting the need for thoughtful policies that harness our potential while addressing the risks ahead.”
Calls for Innovation and Collaboration
Editor of Vanguard Newspapers, Eze Anaba, echoed Oye’s sentiments, urging bold and pragmatic solutions to address Nigeria’s economic challenges.
“You will all agree that, now more than ever, Nigeria’s economy demands innovative thinking and pragmatic solutions,” Anaba said.
He described the event, themed “Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2025: Hardship and Pathways to Sustainable Recovery,” as part of Vanguard’s commitment to fostering impactful policy discussions.
Dr. Femi Egbesola, President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria (ASBON), criticized the federal government for insufficient engagement with private sector stakeholders, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
He revealed that 85.5% of Nigeria’s SME sector consists of nano enterprises—small businesses often overlooked in policymaking.
“Government must focus on this critical sector to drive real growth,” Egbesola stated.
He lamented the limited success of intervention programs, noting, “How many small businesses have become the next Dangote in 10 years? Almost none.”
Egbesola called for structured collaboration in policy design, implementation, and evaluation, insisting, “We don’t need pity; we need partnership. Policies should not be imposed but developed jointly.”
What you should know
- The Vanguard 2025 Economic Discourse brought together policymakers, economists, business leaders, and industry stakeholders to discuss Nigeria’s economic outlook and pathways to sustainable recovery.
- The discussions underscored the need for strategic responses to the challenges posed by global economic shifts and domestic reforms.
- The Vanguard Economic Discourse, which was first held in 2017, has served as Vanguard Newspaper’s contribution to national dialogue.
