Soybean prices have risen above N950.00 in the commodities market, increasing by 15% and marking the fourth time in 2025 that the commodity has reached this level.
This rise follows a prediction from Africa Exchange (AFEX), which estimated a 23% year-on-year increase in soybean prices in 2025 after the prior year’s spike.
According to AFEX, soybean prices in Nigeria surged by 133% year-on-year in 2024, surpassing N1,000,000 per metric ton, with a peak price of N1,180,000 in the third quarter.
Several factors contributed to this increase, including a decrease in domestic production during the 2023/2024 season and strong export demand supported by favourable international prices.
In 2025, soybean prices have gained 15% since falling to a low of N843 on April 2, outperforming paddy rice and maize so far in April.
Performance in 2024
According to AFEX, soybean prices in Nigeria spiked by 133% year-on-year in 2024, surpassing N1,000,000 per metric ton, with a peak price of approximately N1,180,000 per metric ton in the third quarter.
- This surge was driven by multiple factors: diminished domestic production during the 2023/2024 season, robust export demand due to favourable international market conditions, currency devaluation, and Nigeria’s competitive advantage in non-GMO soybean production.
The soaring prices significantly impacted the poultry sector, leading to increased costs for chicken and eggs.
- The average domestic soybean price was N865,000 per metric ton, indicating notable market volatility with fluctuations around 25%.
- Additionally, the exchange reported a 22% increase in soybean price volatility. During this period, the exchange facilitated the trading of 16,000 metric tons of soybean, accounting for 22% of its total traded volume, with an average trade price of NGN673,000 per metric ton.
Outlook
Africa Exchange (AFEX) projects a 23% year-over-year increase in soybean prices, driven primarily by a decline in domestic production, which is expected to place upward pressure on prices.
“Exchange rate volatility and a slight reduction in domestic production are anticipated to contribute to this upward trend,” the exchange stated.
This optimistic outlook, however, stands in contrast to a more bearish perspective on global commodity prices.
- According to World Bank estimates, soybean production in Brazil and the United States is expected to increase by 10%, while Argentina is projected to see a 6% rise, attributed to improved yields and expanded cultivation areas.
AFEX noted that this growth could lead to an overall 9% increase in global soybean production in 2025.
