Nigeria’s food inflation rate slowed to 23.51% in February 2025, marking a significant decline from the 37.92% recorded in February 2024, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The drop represents a notable moderation in food price increases, although the month-on-month data shows that food prices are still rising.
The report attributes the sharp year-on-year decline in food inflation partly to a change in the base year for measurement.
However, on a monthly basis, food inflation stood at 1.67%, reflecting a slower pace of price increases compared to January 2025. This suggests that while food costs are still going up, the rate at which they are increasing has reduced.
Key drivers of the decline in food inflation
The NBS report highlights that the average prices of several food items saw a decline in February. Key staples such as yam tubers, potatoes, soybeans, maize flour, cassava, and dried bambara beans recorded lower price increases compared to previous months. The slowing food price inflation suggests a potential improvement in supply conditions or reduced pressure from exchange rate fluctuations, which had previously contributed to food price volatility.
The report read, “The Food inflation rate in February 2025 was 23.51% on a year-on-year basis. This was 14.41% lower compared to the rate recorded in February 2024 (37.92%). The significant decline in the food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.
“However, on a month-onmonth basis, the Food inflation rate in February 2025 was 1.67%. Compared to the month of January 2025, there was an observed decline in the average prices of food items like Yam tuber, Potatoes, Soya beans, Flour of maize/cornmeal, Cassava, Bambara beans (Dried), etc.
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending February 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 34.74%, which was 4.67% points higher compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in February 2024 (30.07%).”
Despite the easing of inflation, food prices remain a major contributor to the overall inflation rate. Food and non-alcoholic beverages accounted for 9.28% of the total headline inflation rate, making it the most significant driver of inflation in Nigeria. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contributed 0.82%, indicating that food prices are still rising but at a reduced pace.
Regional food inflation trends
- Food inflation varied significantly across states, with some regions experiencing sharper price increases than others. Sokoto recorded the highest food inflation rate at 38.34%, followed by Edo at 35.08% and Nasarawa at 33.53%. The report suggests that food inflation in these states has been driven by supply chain disruptions, transportation costs, and seasonal factors affecting agricultural produce.
- On the other hand, the lowest food inflation rates were recorded in Adamawa at 12.18%, Ondo at 13.66%, and Oyo at 15.55%. These states saw slower food price increases, which could be attributed to better local production conditions and less reliance on imported food.
- Month-on-month, Sokoto recorded the highest food inflation increase at 18.83%, followed by Nasarawa at 15.32% and Kogi at 11.65%. In contrast, Ondo, Kaduna, and Oyo recorded month-on-month declines in food prices, reflecting local supply improvements or policy interventions that helped stabilize costs.
