Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow at a faster pace, with real GDP projected to rise from 3.0% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, according to new projections by Afreximbank Trade Intelligence Solutions.
The country’s economic expansion will be supported by increasing fuel production at the Dangote Petroleum & Petrochemicals refinery, declining inflation, and policy reforms aimed at stabilizing the financial sector.
“Output at the Dangote refinery will likely exceed domestic demand, enabling Nigeria to become a net fuel exporter for the first time, supporting export growth,” Afreximbank noted.
Between 2025 and 2029, real GDP growth is forecasted to average 4.0% annually, bolstered by stronger exchange rate stability and an improvement in household purchasing power.
Analysts at Afrexim TRIN predict that these factors will drive a recovery in private consumption and spur investment activity across various sectors.
Nigeria to become a net fuel exporter
Afreximbank noted that Nigeria’s dominance in crude oil exports will be reinforced by the Dangote refinery, which is expected to surpass domestic fuel demand, enabling the country to become a net exporter of refined petroleum products for the first time.
- This shift is projected to enhance Nigeria’s trade balance and reduce dependency on imported fuel, marking a historic milestone for the economy.
- With increased household spending and rising investment levels, demand for consumer products, raw materials, and capital inputs will climb, leading to higher imports in the coming years.
Policy reforms to boost business confidence
Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms are gaining momentum, strengthening investor confidence and improving business sentiment. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has increased capital requirements for banks—a policy announced in March 2024—to enhance financial sector resilience and foster industry consolidation.
“Reform impetus is gaining traction in Nigeria, which will positively impact the economy, support business sentiment and attract increased investment.”
Additionally, the government’s removal of fuel subsidies and foreign exchange reforms have been instrumental in addressing dollar shortages and creating a more transparent economic environment for both local and foreign investors.
Manufacturing and healthcare investments on the rise
It was noted that manufacturing and industrial construction sectors are poised for significant growth, particularly in Nigeria’s Export Processing Zones (EPZs), which offer incentives such as tax exemptions, duty-free imports, and capital repatriation.
- These zones, managed by the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), are expected to attract increased investments and boost local production.
- The pharmaceutical sector is also witnessing increased investment, driven by the Presidential Initiative to Unlock the Healthcare Value Chain (PVAC).
- A $1 billion memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Afreximbank, signed in February 2024, has already facilitated the establishment of over 70 healthcare manufacturing firms in the country.
The country’s ongoing reforms and infrastructure development are expected to strengthen its role as a regional economic powerhouse, further driving trade and investment opportunities.
