The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has raised concerns over the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, warning that Nigeria must take proactive measures to mitigate its impact.
The advisory follows the release of the NESG Foreign Trade Alert: 2024Q4 & Full Year 2024, which highlighted Nigeria’s vulnerability to global trade disruptions, particularly in its import-dependent industrial sector.
“The trade war between the U.S. and China needs to be hedged against. Nigeria needs to divert its trade pattern towards countries that are unaffected by the U.S. tariffs. This would reduce tariff-induced increases in import bills, considering that the country’s import-dependent non-oil industrial sector is highly vulnerable,” the report noted.
The United States imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports in February 2025, with plans to increase it by another 10% in April.
In retaliation, China announced additional tariffs of 10-15% on certain U.S. imports starting March 10, 2025, along with a series of export restrictions targeting designated U.S. entities.
These measures are expected to disrupt global supply chains, slow world trade growth, and drive up the prices of globally traded commodities.
Given Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported manufactured goods and raw materials, NESG warns that the country could face significant economic challenges if these trade tensions escalate further.
Nigeria’s vulnerability to trade protectionism
China remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner in Q4 2024, followed by India, Belgium, the U.S., and France. The most imported commodities during the period included refined petroleum products, sugar cane, and spare parts.
However, Nigeria’s reliance on imports, particularly from China, makes it susceptible to price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions stemming from the U.S.-China trade conflict.
The report also highlighted Nigeria’s dependence on imported raw materials, which poses a major economic risk. In Q4 2024, the country’s raw material imports totaled N2.1 trillion, significantly outweighing exports, which stood at just N0.7 trillion.
More insights
Nairametrics earlier reported that China and India have emerged as Nigeria’s largest sources of imports, accounting for a combined N20.31 trillion in total imports based on the latest trade report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for 2024.
- According to the report, China accounts for N14.14 trillion of Nigeria’s imports in 2024 while India accounts for N6.17 trillion.
- An emerging trend from the 2024 trade data suggests that Nigeria is increasingly tilting towards Eastern markets, particularly China and India, in its trade relations.
- Further reinforcing this Eastern pivot, in December 2024, the Nigerian government sought South Africa’s endorsement to attain full membership in the G20, BRICS, and the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB).
The BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, currently accounts for approximately 37% of global GDP and is recognized as a significant driver of global economic growth.
