The agricultural sector in Nigeria maintained a positive business outlook in January 2025, although growth slowed as the Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Index declined to +10.85 points from +13.93 points in December 2024.
This was revealed in the recently released NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor for January 2025.
This moderation was driven by mixed performances across sub-sectors, with gains in crop production and livestock offset by declines in agro-allied and forestry businesses.
However, the sector remained resilient, supported by a bumper harvest season and improved security conditions in key food-producing regions.
Additionally, dry-season farming activities helped sustain business momentum, ensuring continued food production during a typically low-activity period.
“The Agriculture sector maintained a positive business outlook in January 2025, though growth slowed as the NESG-Stanbic IBTC BCM Index declined to +10.85 points from +13.93 points in December 2024. This moderation was driven by mixed performances across sub-sectors, with gains in crop production and livestock offset by challenges in agro-allied and forestry businesses. Nonetheless, agricultural activities remained robust, supported by the ongoing bumper harvest season and improved security in key food producing regions. Additionally, dry-season farming contributed to sustained business activity in the sector by bolstering food production during a typically non-productive period,” the report noted.
Sector-Wide Performance: Growth in Some Sub-Sectors, Decline in Others
According to the NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor for January 2025, sector-wide performance was mixed, reflecting both opportunities and constraints:
- Crop Production (+16.96 points) and Livestock (+5.66 points) recorded modest but positive growth, benefiting from seasonal demand and improved access to agricultural inputs.
- Fishing (+3.20 points) also showed positive sentiment, supported by steady demand and stable water conditions.
- Agro-Allied (-9.17 points) and Forestry (-1.07 points) recorded declines, primarily due to rising input costs, reduced processing activity, and the typical year-end slowdown in these industries.
Despite these mixed results, agricultural enterprises remained cautiously optimistic, as government interventions and ongoing sectoral reforms continued to provide stability.
Survey Methodology and Business Outlook
The Business Confidence Survey (BCS) targets business establishments operating in Nigeria that have been engaged in economic activities since early 2023. The survey is administered to senior managers and business executives, providing key insights into sectoral trends.
The NESG-Stanbic IBTC BCM Index combines leading qualitative indicators on production, investment, export demand, prices, employment, and overall business sentiment to assess the level of confidence in Nigeria’s economy.
While the overall agriculture sector remains on a growth trajectory, challenges such as fluctuating input costs, logistical constraints, and climate-related risks could influence business confidence in the coming months. Analysts anticipate that government policies on food security, financial support for agribusinesses, and infrastructure improvements will play a critical role in shaping the sector’s outlook in 2025.
