Global oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, the first day of trade in 2025.
Brent crude futures rose to $74.80 a barrel by 0547 GMT, gaining 17 cents, or 0.06%, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $71.91 a barrel.
Brent had risen by 65 cents on Tuesday, New Year’s Eve, while WTI closed 73 cents higher on the same day.
Global oil prices fluctuated throughout 2024 due to conflicts in the Middle East and a decrease in China’s oil demands.
Investors eye growth in China’s economy
Reuters reported that oil investors are optimistic about a possible growth in China’s economy and a consequent oil demand from the Asian giant, following President Xi Jinping’s to promote growth in 2025.
- In his New Year’s address, China’s President pledged to implement more proactive policies to stimulate economic growth in 2025.
- A Caixin/S&P Global survey on Thursday reported slow growth in China’s factory activity in December 2024, and a slight recovery in the country’s services and construction sector, suggesting evidence of policy stimulus.
- However, investors are concerned about the possible impact of tariffs threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump, who will assume office on January 20.
- Investors are also reportedly awaiting the weekly U.S. oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration which has been delayed until Thursday due to the New Year holiday.
IG market analyst Tony Sycamore told Reuters that WTI’s weekly chart is narrowing, indicating that a significant price movement is imminent.
“Tomorrow’s US ISM manufacturing release will be key to crude oil’s next move… Rather than trying to predict in which way the break will occur, we would be inclined to wait for the break and then go with it,” he added.
Nigeria’s oil price assumption for the year
President Bola Tinubu’s government pegged the 2025 budget on the assumption that global oil prices would be around $75 per, while also pledging to boost oil production above 2 million barrels per day.
Factors that will affect Oil Prices in 2025
China:
China’s Oil demand is expected to peak in 2025. If this happens, oil prices would likely go up. Oil demand by the world’s second-largest economy is projected to rise at approximately 770 million tonnes in 2025, according to a forecast by the China National Petroleum Corporation’s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI).
India’s Demand:
Also, if demand sores in India, which currently has the world’s highest population, we may see oil prices skyrocketing. Experts say India is set to displace China as the leading oil market in Asia.
Trump’s pledge to “drill, baby drill”
President Trump has pledged to increase oil production in the US immediately after assuming office. However, experts say this may not happen as America’s oil and gas industry is largely driven by the private sector.
OPEC’s influence:
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) struggled to control oil prices through production cuts last year. It is left to be seen how much impact it can have on the oil market in 2025. Experts believe OPEC may no longer wield as much power in the global oil market as it once did.
