Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are not enough to meet net-zero ambitions. This is according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).
The agency made this statement in a November 2022 renewable energy targets report. According to IRENA, NDCs alone cannot get the world to where it needs to be in order to effectively tackle climate change impacts.
IRENA’s context: The agency says in addition to NDCs, targeted renewable power must also grow to meet goals. Approximately 90% of global electricity needs have to be supplied by renewables by 2050, up from around 26% in 2019, to put the world on a climate-safe pathway. For sub-Saharan Africa, IRENA says the region accounts for just 2.6% of global targets by 2030, with a target capacity of 140 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, up from around 43 GW already installed in 2021.
Going further, IRENA stated that sustainable renewable energy is fundamental to Africa’s future, as it currently hosts 77% of the world’s population with no electricity access. Countries in this region, like Nigeria, therefore have a strong imperative to harness their renewable energy potential, close the access deficit and boost the region’s welfare and economic development.
The Nigerian context: In July 2022, Nigeria raised its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) from 45% to 47% conditionally and 20% unconditionally below business as usual. The updated NDC is aimed at improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through mitigation measures in transportation, cooking, and lighting in households, industry, waste, oil and gas, agriculture, power, and hydrofluorocarbon.
Where Nigeria stands: In its renewable energy targets report, IRENA created sub-groups showing where countries currently stand as regards their NDCs. The sub-groups are; NDCS Achieved, NDCs in Law, NDCs in the Policy document, NDCs Declaration/pledge, and NDCs proposed/in the discussion. Nigeria ranks in Declaration/pledge, alongside Malawi and South Africa as the only African countries, out of 16 countries in that sub-group.
Renewable energy as bridge: According to IRENA, Rural electrification targets specifying off-grid renewables continue to be widespread in a bid to close the access gap that still exists for 733 million people, of which 568 million reside in sub-Saharan Africa. As of August 2022, renewable energy targets for rural electrification were implemented in almost 30 countries, mostly focusing on off-grid solar photovoltaic (PV). Nearly half of these countries are in West Africa, where all countries have set a target.
Nigeria’s rural electrification rate: On November 22, Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency (REA) announced that it had achieved 1 million solar home systems connections between 2019 to 2022. With the milestone, about 5 million people across the six geo-political zones of Nigeria are now enjoying access to clean, safe, reliable, and affordable electricity through the use of SHS technology.
For the record: The IRENA report notes that in order to meet renewable energy capacity targets set by 2030, totaling 5.4 terawatts (TW), countries would be targeting an additional 2.3 TW by 2030, equivalent to average yearly additions of 259 GW over the next nine years.
