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Debt Securities

Collapse in domestic bills and bonds yields forcing local funds into stocks

A collapse in yields on domestic bills (3 months at 0.35%) and bonds (five-year at 3.5%) is forcing local funds into stocks.

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Nigerian Treasury Bills falls to 3.05% per annum, Implications of the new CBN stance on treasury bill sale to individuals

EFG Hermes has stated that a collapse in domestic bills yield (3 months at 0.35%) and bonds yield (five-year at 3.5%) is forcing local funds into stocks.

This is according to a recent report by the company tagged: 2021 The Year Ahead — Is the Recovery in the Price?

The report notes that current fixed income yields, of which bills and bonds are a part, seem unsustainable – citing that real 12 month yields are -13.8%. Hence, the report suggests that the country is likely to remain a cautious market for foreign investors in 2021.

READ: CAC says defaulting lawyers to face 2 years imprisonment for filing false documents

Despite the awareness, the company is of the opinion that fixed income yields in Nigeria could stay higher than 2020 lows for the next few months, which may lead to heavy bond issues in early 2021, as precedent suggests.  

  • The company believes that the macro context is weak and policy-making is unpredictable in the country – pointing that although the country is facing a slow-burning BoP and fiscal crisis, it appears the authorities are making little efforts towards the difficult decisions necessary to put the economy and market on a sustainable footing.
  • This may, according to the company, impact earnings growth negatively in 2021 and 2022.

Accordingly, the report contends that this is one of the reasons why foreign investors avoid investing in the country’s instruments – noting that foreign investors seem to be happy selling to the local institutional bidders so that current data on holdings and flows depicts there is not much foreign money left in the market – as illustrated by foreign and domestic portfolio investment.

READ: Nigeria’s GDP growth to rebound between 1.7% and 2.0% in 2021 – United Capital report

What EFG Hermes is saying

  • “While foreign portfolio investors are seeing some relief on the backlog, until we see serious policy changes, we do not think foreign investors will become net buyers of Nigerian stocks. There is no indication that such changes are in the pipeline.
  • “We, therefore, expect a rising share of future net contributions to go to stocks, as well as cash coming from bond and bill maturities. However, we note that PFAs remain reluctant buyers, and the list of stocks in which they are happy investors is short.”

Adeyemi holds a PhD in Accounting Sciences. He has worked in the Educational Sector and as an Independent Consultant.

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Debt Securities

DMO debunks misappropriation rumour, clarifies missing N2.2 trillion in 2018 Appropriation Act

The DMO has debunked rumours of misappropriation of a N2.2 trillion debt service provision in the 2018 Appropriation Act.

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Debt Management Office resumes FGN savings bond offer on August 10, Eurobonds, Patience Oniha, DMO, External debt servicing

The Debt Management Office of Nigeria (DMO) has vehemently denied the rumour making the rounds that it was unable to account for the sum of N2.2 trillion allocated to its office in the 2018 Appropriation Act.

The agency in a recent disclosure available on its website described the claims as not only false but extremely misleading.

It is pertinent to note that the rumours became rife, after DMO honoured an invitation by the Public Accounts Committee of the House of Representatives, to explain how it spent the sum of N2.2 trillion provided in the 2018 Act. The DMO appeared before the aforementioned committee on the 26th of February, 2021.

Clarifying the issue, the DMO explained that of the N2.2 trillion provided in the 2018 Act; only the sum of N721, 251,798.00 was appropriated to its agency, while the remaining N2.1 trillion was earmarked for Debt Service. In lieu of this, the DMO emphasized that the appropriated sum of ₦2.2 trillion was not available as the DMO’s total allocation.

What they are saying

Commenting on the issue, a part of the press release reads: ‘’ The DMO wishes to emphasize that the provisions in the Annual Appropriation Acts for Debt Service, including the 2018 Appropriation Act, are dedicated for Debt Service payments only; that is, for the repayment of Principal, Interest and Other Charges for both Domestic and External Debt.

“Indeed, the funds for Debt Service are never released to the DMO for spending, rather, in line with the mandate of the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), the funds are domiciled with the OAGF, who on the advice of the DMO, effects payments directly to the creditors as at when due. Such creditors include multilateral and bilateral lenders like the World Bank, African Development Bank, Exim Bank of China, investors in Nigeria’s Eurobonds, as well as, investors in securities issued in the domestic market such as FGN Bonds, SUKUK, Green Bonds and Nigerian Treasury Bills.”

It also went further to justify the need for Debt Servicing, emphasizing that: “The general public is invited to note that servicing of the public debt is absolutely necessary to ensure that Nigeria remains credit-worthy and retains or improves on its sovereign rating which ultimately, will support growth and development. It is for this reason as well as transparency purposes, that Debt Service is expressly provided as a line item in the Annual Appropriation Acts.’’

What you should know

  • The 2018 Appropriation Act authorized the Federal Government of Nigeria to withdraw a total sum of N9, 120,334,988,225 from the Consolidated Revenue Fund, in a bid to meet expenditure requirement in the 2018 fiscal year.
  • A breakdown of the 2018 Act showed that; N3,512,677,902,077 was earmarked for recurrent expenditure, N2,873,400,351,825 (capital expenditure), 2,203,835,365,699 (Debt Service and DMO’s allocation) and N530,421,368,624 (Statutory transfers).

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Debt Securities

DMO announces March 2021 FGN Savings Bond offer for subscription

The DMO, on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria, has offered for subscription, the March 2021 FGN Savings Bond.

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Debt management office, DMO,Nigeria's Debt to revenue ratio, DMO suspends April 2020 FGN savings bond offer

The Debt Management Office (DMO), on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria has offered for subscription, the March 2021 Federal Government of Nigeria Savings Bond.

This is contained in a notification published on the website of the agency on Monday. According to the notification, the savings bond offer comes in two tranches;

  • 2-year FGB Savings Bond due March 10, 2023: 5.181% per annum
  • 3-year FGN Savings Bond due March 10, 2024: 6.181% per annum

Details

  • Opening Date: March 1, 2021
  • Closing Date: March 5, 2021
  • Settlement Date: March 10, 2021
  • Coupon Payment Dates: June 10, September 10, December, and March 10
  • Units of sale: N1,000 per unit subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.

According to the circular, the offer is backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government of Nigeria and charged upon the general assets of Nigeria.

Interested investors were however advised to visit their website in order to get the list of stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents.

What you should know

  • Nairametrics had reported the offer for subscription of a similar Savings Bond in February with interest rates of 4.214% and 5.214% per annum for 2 years and 3 years tenor respectively.
  • The interest rate for the latest offer is, however higher than the offer announced in February. This could be a move to attract more investors to subscribe to the securities.
  • The FGN Savings Bond is an investment product issued through the Debt Management Office (DMO) on behalf of the Federal Government.
  • It also qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act, and is listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

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