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Macro-Economic News
IMF: Global economy is now projected to fall by 4.4%
The world economy is now projected to fall by 4.4% in 2020.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised the global economy’s growth slightly upward for the year 2020 but warned of “long and unstable roadblocks to full economic recovery.”
The world economy is now projected to fall by 4.4% in 2020, an upward guide from an earlier predicted rate of -4.9% made in June. The IMF’s projection anticipates that social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic will continue into 2021, but the transmission of the virus will plunge globally by the end of 2022.
“We are projecting a somewhat less severe though still deep recession in 2020, relative to our June forecast,” the IMF’s Chief Economist, Gita Gopinath, said in the latest World Economic Outlook.
She added that the revision was driven by better-than-expected growth in advanced economies and China during the second quarter of the year and signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter.
Backstory
Recall Nairametrics released an IMF report about a week ago, which shows against headwinds that the world economy has ended up performing better than the IMF had envisaged in Q2 and Q3.
- This is expected to lead to an upward revision, its growth forecasts which are scheduled to be released next week
- The report went on, “We have reached this point, largely because of extraordinary policy measures that put a floor under the world economy.”
- Governments have provided around $12 trillion in fiscal support to households and firms.
- Unprecedented monetary policy actions have maintained the flow of credit, helping millions of firms to stay in business.
Emerging market and developing economies are having to manage this crisis with fewer resources, as many are constrained by elevated debt and higher borrowing costs.
- These economies will need to prioritize critical spending for health and transfers to the poor and ensure maximum efficiency.
- They will also need continued support in the form of international grants and concessional financing, and debt relief in some cases. Where debt is unsustainable, it should be restructured sooner than later to free up finances to deal with this crisis.
Macro-Economic News
Price Watch: Nigerians paid less for Kerosene in December 2020
NBS Report shows that consumers paid less for Kerosene in December than they did in November 2020.
Macro-Economic News
Nigeria’s inflation rate hits 15.75% in December 2020, highest in 3 years
This is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.
Nigeria’s inflation rate increased by 15.75% (year-on-year) in December 2020, the highest rate recorded in 3 years.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the latest figure is 0.86% points higher than the rate of 14.89% recorded in November 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, the index increased by 1.61% in December 2020. This is 0.01% point higher than the rate recorded in November 2020 (1.60%).
READ: Inflation rate up 207% since 2009 as bad economic policies ravages naira.
Food inflation
The closely watched index rose sharply by 19.56% in December compared to 18.3% recorded in the previous month.
- On a month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.05% in December 2020, up by 0.01% point from 2.04% recorded in November 2020.
- The rise in the food index was caused by increases recorded in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fruits, vegetable, fish and oils and fats.
READ: Hope rises for employment in December 2020 and January 2021 – CBN survey Report
Core inflation
The “All items less farm produce’‘ or Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce stood at 11.37% in December 2020, up by 0.32% when compared with 11.05% recorded in November 2020.
- Also, on a month-on-month basis, the core sub-index increased by 1.10% in December 2020. This was up by 0.39% when compared with 0.71% recorded in November 2020.
- The highest increases were recorded in prices of passenger transport by air, medical services, hospital services, shoes and other footwear, passenger transport by road, miscellaneous services relating to dwellings, hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments, and repair of furniture.
- Others include vehicle spare parts, pharmaceutical products, motor cars, maintenance and repair of personal transport equipment, paramedical services, motorcycle, dental services, and bicycles.
READ: Cost of data subscription reduces by over 50% in 2020
Worst hit states
- In the month of December 2020, Bauchi State recorded the highest inflation rate at 19.85%, closely followed by Kogi State with an inflation rate of 18.4%
- Others include Edo (18.1%), Zamfara (17.9%), and Sokoto (17.6%)
- In terms of food inflation, Edo State also recorded the highest rise in inflation rate with 24.1%, followed by Kogi (23.16%), Sokoto (22.2%); while Kwara and Zamfara State recorded food inflation of 22.1% and 21.7% respectively.
READ: Nigeria’s inflation expected to maintain double digit in the next one year
Meanwhile, the urban inflation rate increased by 16.33% (year-on-year) in December 2020 from 15.47% recorded in November 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.20% compared to 14.33% recorded in November 2020.
What this means
The rise in the consumer price index indicates that consumers spent more in the month of December compared to the previous month.
- This implies that the purchasing power of Nigerians is continually eroding.
- Nigerians could be faced with new worries if the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic leads to a second round of lockdown in the country.
- The significant increase could, however, be attributed to the Christmas and New year festivities in the month of December.
Macro-Economic News
Nigeria’s total public debt rises to N32.2 trillion ($84.57 billion) as at September 2020.
The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020.
Nigeria’s total public debt stock as of September 2020, increased by over N6 trillion in just one year. This is according to the Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt report, recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The total public debt (External and Domestic) incurred by Nigeria stood at N32.22 trillion ($84.57 billion) as of September 2020, which represents an additional N6.01 trillion when compared to N26.21 trillion recorded as of the corresponding period of 2019.
READ: Nigeria total public debt hits N31 trillion as debt service gulp over N1.2 trillion in H1 2020
The breakdown shows that external debts accounted for 37.82% (N12.19 trillion) of the total debt stock, while domestic debts at N20.04 trillion represented 62.18% of the total.
Breakdown
- Further disaggregation of Nigeria’s foreign debt showed that $16.74bn of the debt was multilateral.
- Also, $502.38m was bilateral (AFD) and another $3.26bn bilateral from the Exim Bank of China, JICA, India, and
KFW while $11.17bn was commercial which are Eurobonds and Diaspora Bonds. - Total external debt grew by $5.04 billion (N3.9 trillion) within the period, indicating an increase of 18.72%.
- Total domestic debt on the other hand declined by $5.86 billion. However, it represents an increase in Naira value of N2.09 trillion, largely due to multiple devaluations of the currency during the period.
READ: Growing concern for Nigeria’s ballooning debt profile
A cursory look at the breakdown of the domestic debts show that 73.53% (N11.65 trillion) were in form of Federal Government bonds, 17.17% (N2.72 trillion) in Treasury bills, followed by Promissory Notes accounting for 6.13% (N971.9 billion) of the total federal government domestic debts.
Others include; FGN Sukuk (N362.6 billion), Treasury Bonds (N100.9 billion), Green bond (N25.7 billion), and Savings bond (N12.6 billion).
READ: Debt burden of the least developed nations rises to $744 billion – World Bank
More loans to be expected
On the 31st of December 2020, President Buhari signed the 2021 appropriation bill of N13.59 trillion into law, which 25.7% higher than the revised 2020 budget of N10.8 trillion. However, the budget comes with a deficit of N5.6 trillion, which is expected to be financed mainly through borrowings both externally and domestically.
READ: Global Economy to grow by 4% in 2021 – World Bank
According to the minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, Dr. Zainab Ahmed, in a budget presentation on Tuesday, N2.34 trillion will be sourced each from domestic and foreign sources respectively, N709.69 billion from Multilateral/bilateral loan drawdowns, and N205.15 billion from privatisation proceeds.
READ: Analysis: Nigeria needs an austerity diet
Recall that Nairametrics reported in December that, the World Bank finally approved a $1.5 billion loan request made by Nigeria as budget support in order to cushion the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the country’s revenue.
It is also worth noting that the federal government will be tapping into funds in unclaimed funds and dormant accounts.
