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Macro-Economic News

IMF: Global economy not performing badly as anticipated

The world economy has ended up performing better than the International Monetary Fund had envisaged in Q2 and Q3.

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Antoinette Sayeh to join IMF as Deputy Managing Director 

“The economic crisis of 2020 may have performed so badly as anticipated earlier by many experts but road bumps still lie ahead said,” Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director said on Tuesday.

The IMF had earlier anticipated in June that the global economy will contract by 4.9% in 2020.

READ: FG ready for OPEC talks, as brent crude risk plunging to single digit low

Against headwinds, the world economy has ended up performing better than the International Monetary Fund had envisaged in Q2 and Q3. This is expected to lead to an upward revision to its growth forecasts which are scheduled to be released next week

The report went on, saying; We have reached this point, largely because of extraordinary policy measures that put a floor under the world economy. Governments have provided around $12 trillion in fiscal support to households and firms. And unprecedented monetary policy actions have maintained the flow of credit, helping millions of firms to stay in business.

READ: IMF considering an “emergency” bailout for Nigeria

But some were able to do more than others. For advanced economies, it is whatever it takes. Poorer nations strive for whatever is possible. This gap in response capacity is one reason why we see differentiated outcomes. Another reason is the effectiveness of measures to contain the pandemic and restart economic activities.

For many advanced economies, including the United States and the Euro Area, the downturn remains extremely painful, but it’s less severe than expected. China is experiencing a faster-than-expected recovery. Others are still hurting badly, and some of our revisions are on the downside.

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READ: Recession: Nigerian economy to slide by 3.4% in 2020 – IMF

However, the IMF boss pointed on the prevailing high risks bearing on the global economy from rising bankruptcies and stretched valuations in financial markets, coupled with many leading nations having their debt levels exponentially high because of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis and the fiscal revenue losses recorded.

The report continued, stating; “As we embark on this ‘ascent,’ we are all joined by a single rope—and we are only as strong as the weakest climbers. They will need help on the way up. The path ahead is clouded with extraordinary uncertainty. Faster progress on health measures, such as vaccines and therapies, could speed up the ‘ascent’.

READ: CBN finally alters rate, Cuts MPR to 13.50%

But it could also get worse, especially if there is a significant increase in severe outbreaks. Risks remain high, including from rising bankruptcies and stretched valuations in financial markets.

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And many countries have become more vulnerable. Their debt levels have increased because of their fiscal response to the crisis and the heavy output and revenue losses. We estimate that global public debt will reach a record-high of about 100 percent of GDP in 2020.”

Olumide Adesina is a France-born Nigerian. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than 15 years of working expertise in Investment trading. Message Olumide on Twitter @tokunboadesina. He is a Member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society.

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Macro-Economic News

Top Agro food products exported by Nigeria in 2020

Here is a list of the top 10 agro-food products exported by Nigeria in 2020

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Nigeria exported agricultural products worth N321.5 billion in 2020, representing a 19.16% increase when compared to N269.8 billion recorded in 2019 and a 6.27% increase compared to N302.28 billion recorded in 2018.

However, despite the increase recorded in export, imported agricultural goods surged by 78.58% in 2020 compared to 2019. Nigeria imported agricultural goods worth N1.71 trillion in 2020 as against N959.5 billion in 2019.

This is according to data tracked by Nairametrics Research from the foreign trade quarterly reports, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

  • In spite of crude oil, agriculture still remains the base of Nigeria’s economy, providing the main source of livelihood for most Nigerians. The sector remains the largest sector of the Nigerian economy and employs about two-thirds of the entire labour force in the country.
  • However, production hurdles have significantly impeded the expected growth. According to the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations, over the past 20 years, value-added per capita in agriculture has risen by less than 1% annually.
  • It is also estimated that Nigeria has lost about $10 billion in annual export opportunities from groundnut, palm oil, cocoa, and cotton alone as a result of the decline in the production of these commodities.

In line with this, it is pertinent to consider the major agricultural products that fetched Nigeria significant cash in 2020, in order to make adequate preparations towards maximising the country’s export potentials.

READ: CBN Commences distribution of grants and inputs worth over N700 million to cocoa Farmers


 

  • Sesame seeds – N98.27 billion

Sesame seed comes from a flowering plant mostly grown in Northern Nigeria due to the drought-resistant nature of the seed. It has many uses, but perhaps, its most important use is as a source of sesame oil which is the most demanded vegetable oil in the world because of its zero cholesterol content.

Nigeria has been one of the highest sesame seed-producing countries over the years, making the seed an important component of the country’s agricultural export.

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In 2020, Nigeria exported sesame seed abroad to the tune of N98.27 billion. The highest quarterly export was recorded in Q1 2020 (N39.63 billion), before the heat of the pandemic, while the lowest was recorded in Q3 2020 (N15.59 billion).

READ: Top 10 Agricultural Products Export from Nigeria


 

  • Cocoa – N87.44 billion

Cocoa is a small perennial tree crop that primarily comes from the three tropical regions in the world; Southeast Asia, Latin America, and West Africa. Cote d’Ivoire is the single largest producer of cocoa beans, accounting for approximately 31% of the world’s supply.

The fruit is an egg-shaped red-to-brown pod that contains about 30 to 40 seeds, each of which is surrounded by a bitter-sweet white pulp. When the seeds are dried and fermented in the sun, they turn brownish red and are known as cocoa beans, which is the principal ingredient of chocolate.

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In the year under review, Nigeria exported different variants of cocoa products to a sum of N87.44 billion. Good fermented Nigerian cocoa exported in 2020 was estimated at N45.36 billion, followed by superior quality raw cocoa beans at N36.53 billion, and natural cocoa butter at N3.52 billion.

Other variants of the cocoa product exported by Nigeria in 2020 include; other quality raw cocoa beans at N1.56 billion, other butter of cocoa and deodorised cocoa (N279 million) and roasted cocoa beans worth N190 million.

READ: Nigeria’s cocoa exports to fall by $100m as prices rise in futures market.


 

  • Cashew nuts – N45.88 billion

Cashew is a tree crop that has been cultivated for food and medicine for many years. The various parts of the cashew fruits are of economic value, which includes apple, nut, and kernel. The primary product of cashew nuts is the kernel, which is the edible portion of the nut.

In confectionery and bakery products, for example, kernels are used in the production of ice creams, chocolates, cakes, and sweets. Cashew nut shell liquid has also been used in making medicine used for treating various illnesses.

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In 2020, Nigeria exported cashew nuts valued at N45.88 billion, with the highest quantity recorded in Q2 2020. The breakdown of cashew nut export shows that cashew nuts, in shell that was exported in the review year was N38.36 billion, while that which is shelled was valued at N7.52 billion.


 

  • Frozen foods – N7.78 billion

Nigeria exported various frozen food items in the year 2020, valued at N7.78 billion. Among the frozen food items exported in the period as stated by the National Bureau of Statistics were, other frozen shrimps and prawns, valued at N5.43 billion.

Frozen rock lobster and other sea crawfish (Palinurus spp, Panulirus spp, Jasus spp) stood at N1.98 billion while Hake (Merluccius spp, Urophycis spp), and frozen meat exported was valued at N374 million.

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  • Shea – N6.47 billion

Shea fruits and nuts are “non-timber forest products” that are gathered annually during the shea tree fruiting season that extends from May to September. Shea fruits have an encompassed kernel and nut.

Oil and associated by-products are obtained from crushing the nuts, and these oils are used in creating shea butter, which is further used in making cooking oil, skin and hair moisturizer, soap, waterproof sealant for home walls, lamp fuel, and many more.

It is worth noting that Nigeria exported Shea nuts valued at N6.14 billion in 2020, while shea cake export stood at N337 million in the year under review.


Bubbling under:

  • Ginger – N6.15 billion
  • Sesame oil – N4.83 billion
  • Soya – N3.53 billion
  • Coconuts – N3.36 billion
  • Flower – N1.58 billion

Why this matters

Nigeria is a country immensely blessed with rich soil texture idle for the practice of crop production; however, we are unable to produce as much for our domestic consumption not to mention receiving adequate export value for our agro products.

  • It is no news that there is an international demand for most of Nigeria’s agro products; however, Nigeria spends more importing agricultural products from other countries.
  • Some of the major bottlenecks impeding the expected growth in the agricultural sector, despite huge monetary interventions in the sector in recent years, include logistic problems, infrastructure, amongst others.
  • According to a PWC report on the current state of Nigeria’s agriculture and agribusiness sector, Nigeria has significantly poor transport infrastructure and services (road and rail), particularly in the rural areas.
  • It also identifies the lack of cold chain logistics as a factor contributing to the decrease in trade capacity through losses from spoilage and impinged time to market.
  • The limited capacity of Nigeria’s seaport has also affected the ease of cross-border trade.
  • Finally, there is a need for Nigeria to improve its agricultural production so as to tap into the large foreign exchange that could come into the country through the export of these items.

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Macro-Economic News

Bus fare in Nigeria surges by 78% YoY in February 2021

Fare paid by Nigerian commuters increased from an average of N208.89 recorded in February 2020 to N361.3 in February 2021.

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Nigerian Bustop Photo by Dami Akinbode on Unsplash

The average fare paid by commuters for a bus journey within the city increased by 78.1% year-on-year in February 2021 to stand at N361.3. This is according to the transport fare watch report, recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

According to the report, the fare paid by Nigerian commuters increased from an average of N208.89 recorded in February 2020 to N361.3 in February 2021. This represents a 78.1% increase in price while it also increased by 2.6% compared to N351.15 recorded in the previous month.

Meanwhile, States with the highest bus journey fare within the city were Zamfara (N620.15), Bauchi (N530.10), and Ekiti (N475.25) while States with the lowest bus journey fare within the city were Oyo (N190.45), Abia (N208.55), and Borno (N250.72).

READ: Nigeria’s inflation rate rises to 17.33% in February 2021, highest in four years

Also, the average fare paid by commuters for bus journey intercity increased by 1.13% month-on-month and by 39.85% year-on-year to N2,372.87 in February 2021 from N2,346.41 recorded in January 2021.

READ: Transport fare watch: Motorcycle “Okada” commuters paid less in January 2021

Air travel

Average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes single journey decreased by 0.02% month-on-month and increased by 17.97% year-on-year to N36,458.11 in February 2021 from N36,463.65 recorded in the previous month.

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  • States with the highest airfare in February 2021 were Delta/Lagos (N38,600), Anambra/Bayelsa (N38,500), Bauchi (N38,400).
  • On the other hand, Akwa-Ibom recorded the lowest fae in the review period (N32,500) followed by Sokoto and Gombe State with N33,600 and N35,000 respectively.

READ: Lagos says transport operators, drivers, conductors, others must get accredited

Motorcycle

The amount paid by Nigerian commuters for journey by motorcycle per drop increased by 2.86% month-on-month and by 97.68% year-on-year to N266.74 in February 2021 from N259.33 recorded in January 2021.

  • States with the highest journey fare by motorcycle per drop were Taraba (N436.20), Yobe (N425.02), and Kogi (N400.12) while states with the lowest journey fare by motorcycle per drop were Adamawa (N86.47), Katsina (N140.12), and Kebbi (N155.90).

READ: Lagos bus service limited announces 46% fare increase, to use BRT lanes

Waterways

The average fare paid by passengers for waterway passenger transport increased by 1% month-on-month and by 39.63% year-on-year to N794.02 in February 2021 from N786.19 recorded in January 2021.

  • States with the highest fare by waterway passenger transport were Rivers (N2,299.35), Delta (N2,280.33), and Bayelsa (N2,258.49) while states with the lowest fare by water way passenger transport were Borno (N240.55), Gombe (N297.23), and Abuja FCT (N340.22).

READ: Lagos Rail Mass Transit Red Line to be operational by 2022

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What this means

The latest figure indicates that Nigerians are spending more on transportation despite the spike recorded in the food prices in the country, especially in the south. Nairametrics had reported that core inflation and food inflation rose to 12.38% and 21.79% respectively in February 2021.

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