Research Analysis
Nigeria total public debt hits N31 trillion as debt service gulp over N1.2 trillion in H1 2020
A report recently released by the DMO reveals that the country’s debt has hit N31 trillion.
Nigeria’s Total Debt Stock (Foreign & Domestic), as at June 2020 stood at N31.01 trillion ($85.9 billion)- 8.31% increase when compared with N28.63 trillion ($79.3 billion) recorded in March 2020. This was disclosed in the Nigeria public debt report, recently released by the Debt Management Office (DMO).
The breakdown shows that total external debt stood at N11.36 trillion ($31.47 billion), accounting for 36.65% of the total debt stock, while domestic debt represented 63.35% of the total debt. Domestic debts stood at N19.65 trillion ($54.42 billion) as at June 2020.
READ: CBN pays $4.45 billion external debt to World Bank, others in 2-month
The report also reveals that N921.9 billion was used to service domestic debts between January and June 2020, while N288.6 billion ($759.6 million) was used on foreign debts, making a total of N1.21 trillion. Compared to N1.06 trillion spent in the same period of 2019, debt service increased by 14.6%.
Highlights
- Federal government foreign debt in the period under review stood at N9.82 trillion ($27.2 billion). This represents 86.5% of the total foreign debts, while the 36 States and the Federal Capital Territory recorded external debt of N1.54 trillion ($4.26 billion).
- In terms of domestic debts, the federal government accounted for 78.7% of the federation local debts, as States including the FCT accounted for the remaining 21.3%.
- Foreign debt grew by 13.8%, compared to $27.7 billion (N9.9 trillion) recorded as at the first quarter of the year.
- Nigeria’s public debt grew by $22.09 billion in the last 5 years, indicating an increase of 34.6%.
READ: 2020 revised budget, spending inefficiencies, and a looming debt hole
According to the press release, the recent increase in Debt Stock was as a result of the $3.36 billion Budget Support Loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), New Domestic Borrowing, which was used to finance the Revised 2020 Appropriation Act, including the issuance of N162.56 billion Sukuk, and Promissory Notes issued to settle Claims of Exporters.
Meanwhile, a cursory look at the historic trend shows that Nigeria’s total public debt increased by $22.09 billion between June 2015 and June 2020, when multiplied by the prevailing exchange rate of N380/$1, it translates to a total additional loan of N8.39 trillion within 5 years of the current administration.
Despite facing economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and characterized by contraction in economic activities, reduced capital inflows, trade decline across international borders, coupled with reduced government revenue as a result of decline in global oil price; Nigeria spent a sum of N1.21 trillion to service both domestic and foreign debts between January and June 2020.
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The N1.21 trillion debt service expense represents 11.2% of the total revised budget of N10.8 trillion for the year 2020, an indication that over 11% of this year’s budget has been expended on debt servicing just half-year. Meanwhile, the funds being spent on debt servicing can be seen as another way of wasting limited resources while funding very little capital expenditure, that could be used to stimulate the productivity of the country.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that over the past 5 years spanning 2015 and 2019, the Nigerian government spent about N34.83 trillion, comprising of both recurrent expenditure (73.1%), capital expenditure (19.2%) and transfers (7.8%). This means that only about 19% of the debt load has been invested in further developing the nation through the creation of relevant infrastructure. The rest were spent on recurring expenses like salaries.
READ: LCCI condemns Senate over Buhari’s $22.7 billion loan approval
More loans to be expected
The DMO stated in its press release, that it expects the Public Debt Stock to grow as the balance of the New Domestic Borrowing is raised, and expected disbursements are made by the World Bank, African Development Bank (AFDB), and the Islamic Development Bank, which were arranged to finance the 2020 Budget.
It also stated that Additional Promissory Notes are expected to be issued in the course of the year, this, and new borrowings by State Governments, are also expected to increase the Public Debt Stock.
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Exclusives
EXCLUSIVE: Best performing banks in Nigeria judging by the numbers
Nairametrics analysed the best banks in Nigeria based on their performance in 2020.
The year 2020 was a remarkable year for the Nigerian banking industry as different policies such as the GSI policy, loan restructuring, etc., were issued in the industry’s favour. The industry became more competitive in the year, with each of the banks striving to increase its market size and revenue.
Tracking the public information of listed banks on the NSE, we analysed them based on popular metrics to determine the leading players in the industry. For the analysis, the full year 2020 results of the following banks were tracked: Access, FBN, FCMB, Fidelity, GTB, Jaiz, Stanbic IBTC, Sterling, Union, UBA, Wema, and Zenith Bank. Ecobank was not considered in the analysis as the bank operates efficiently in other markets besides Nigeria.
The key metrics considered in these analyses are Total Assets, Net Assets, Total Deposits, Profit After Tax, Return on Equity, and Return on Total Assets.
READ: Banks spend N12.2 billion on travel expenses in 2020
Leading Banks by Total Assets
An analysis of the combined assets of the 12 listed banks that have released their full-year (2020) results (Ecobank excluded) showed that the total assets increased by 27.9% from N38.7 trillion to N49.4 trillion. The increase indicates the stronger financial position of the banks.
Among the 12 banks listed in Nairametrics tracker, the following are the leading banks.
First position – Access Bank: N8.7 trillion
Second position – Zenith Bank: N8.5 trillion
Third position – UBA: N7.7 trillion
Fourth position – FBN Holdings: N7.7 trillion
Fifth Position – GTB: N4.9 trillion
Upshots – Access Bank and Zenith Bank maintained their positions as the banks with the highest total asset in 2020. UBA however, overlooked FBN to stand in the third position, while FBN declined to fourth on the list. Among the leading banks (FUGAZ), UBA had the highest year-on-year growth of 36.95% in 2020, while in the industry generally, Jaiz bank had the highest growth in total assets of 39.3%.
Net Assets
The net asset represents the remainder when all liabilities have been subtracted from the bank’s total asset. It indicates the shareholders’ funds in the banks. Due to the depository nature of commercial banks and the ability of banks to greatly increase their liabilities, the metric is adopted by the CBN in assessing the banking sector’s ability to withstand credit losses.
The combined net asset of our 12 analysed banks increased by 17.9% in 2020 with the largest growth of 25.3% coming from Stanbic IBTC.
The leading banks based on net assets are:
First Position – Zenith Bank: N1.1 trillion
Second Position – Guaranty Trust Bank: N814.4 billion
Third Position – FBN Holdings: N765.2 billion
Fourth Position – Access Bank: N751.0 billion
Fifth Position – UBA: N724.1 billion
Upshots: It is observed that all the banks had significant increases in their net asset in 2020 while the top ones also maintained their positions. However, Union Bank and Wema Bank recorded the least growth in net assets with a 4.75% and 5.9% increase respectively. Zenith Bank’s net asset grew by 18.6%, Guaranty Trust Bank by 18.5%, FBNH by 15.7%, Access bank by 23.8%, and UBA by 21.1%.
Customer Deposits
Customer deposits remain one of the most competitive items in the banking sector since it is from deposits that loans are issued out and other investments are made.
The total customer deposits of the tracked banks increased by 32.1% in 2020. The bank with the highest growth in customer deposits during the period was UBA growing by 48.1%, from N3.8 trillion at the end of 2019 to N5.7 trillion as of April 31st, 2021.
The leading banks based on Customer Deposits are:
First Position – UBA: N5.7 trillion
Second Position – Access Bank: N5.6 trillion
Third Position – Zenith Bank: N5.3 trillion
Fourth Position – FBN Holdings: N4.9 trillion
Fifth Position – GTB: N3.5 trillion
Upshots: UBA grew significantly in 2020, moving from fourth place in 2019 to the bank with the highest customer deposits at the end of 2020. Generally, all the banks recorded customer deposits growth higher than 20% in 2020 with the exemption of Jaiz bank and sterling bank which grew by 7.2% and 6.5% respectively.
Profits After Tax
Due to the increased capacity seen in the growth of total assets of the banks, the banks under our radar delivered improved PAT except for Fidelity, and Wema Bank.
Banks that declared the most profits are;
First Position – Zenith Bank: N230.6 billion
Second Position – Guaranty Trust Bank: N201.4 billion
Third Position – UBA: N113.7 billion
Fourth Position – Access bank: N106 billion
Fifth Position – Stanbic IBTC: N83.2 billion
Upshots: Zenith Bank and GTB outperformed their peers as done in previous years. Also, UBA again outgrew its 4th position in 2019 moving up the ladder to the third position at the end of 2020. However, in terms of growth in PAT, UBA also grew highest by 27.7% in the period under review.
Return on Equity
The return on equity is an important metric that shows the percentage of profit made on every N1 of the shareholders’ fund. It is used to measure the performance and efficiency of the banks.
This metric will show how well banks have maximised the increase in shareholders’ wealth they enjoyed in 2020.
The leading banks based on ROE are
First Position – Guaranty Trust Bank: 26.8%
Second Position – Stanbic IBTC Holdings: 24.4%
Third Position – Zenith Bank: N22.4%
Fourth Position – Jaiz Bank: N17.4%
Fifth Position – UBA: 17.21%
Upshots- Sequel to the increase in total assets and PAT of GTB, the bank was able to achieve the greatest efficiency in the industry delivering a return rate of 26.8% to its shareholders.
Return on Assets
This metric measures the ability of a bank to sweat its assets and deliver the highest possible profits. In the earlier section of the report, we stated that banks recorded significant increase in their assets, however, the ROA was lower. The ROA is a better measure of efficiency since it takes into cognition the bank’s usage of customer’s deposits.
Best banks based on ROA are:
First Position – Guaranty Trust Bank: 4.6%
Second Position – Stanbic IBTC Holdings: 3.8%
Third Position – Zenith Bank: 3.1%
Fourth Position – UBA: 1.7%
Fifth Position – Jaiz Bank: 1.5%
Upshots: A similar result is seen in ROA just as seen in ROE. The average industry ROA was 2.05% and Access (1.3%), FBN (1.1%), FCMB (1.1%), Fidelity Bank (1.2%), Sterling bank (0.9%), Union bank (1.2%) and Wema bank (0.6%) all performed below the industry average.
