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Investment Tips

Payback and Return on Investments

To calculate payback, the cash flow or return from the investment needs to be known.

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In previous articles, we have explored various methods of fundamental analysis, including cash flow and earning. Two key questions every investor asks are — How much will I make from this investment? How soon can I get returns? These questions are broadly Return on Investment (ROI) questions and there are lots of ways to calculate it, including Breakeven Analysis and Internal Rate of Return. Let us look at their ROI tools in detail starting with Payback

Payback is how long it takes for an investment or business to recoup its initial investment. With Payback, the shorter the number, the better. Look at it this way, if you got an offer to build a railway from Lagos to Ibadan and you will get payback in 5 or 8 years, which would you prefer? 5 of course.

READ ALSO: Difference between Clean and Dirty Price of a Bond

Payback analysis is useful where the investor wants to know if the project is work the time and investment capital it is also easy to calculate. A shorter payback also means the project has a shorter time to be exposed to volatility and risk however this does not mean it eliminates risk, it just determines time frame during which the investment is subject to higher volatility without a full return of invested principal. Payback is like Breakeven calculation, but payback is focused on time while breakeven is focuses on time as a unit.

To calculate payback, the cash flow or return from the investment needs to be known.  For instance, A company wants to set up an online platform to receive online orders. It estimates the project will cost N5m in total and will increase sales by N1.5m every year. The company projects that the equipment will be depreciated at 20% meaning it will last 5 years. What is the payback for this project?

(READ MORE: Plentywaka raises $300,000, seeks partners as it launches operations in Abuja)

To calculate payback, we divide the total cash sum by the cash returns for the project. In this case, 5,000,000/1,500,000 that equals to 3.33. Note the company estimated the project equipment will last 5 years

Payback does not talk about profitability, rate of return or if the company investing will remain as a going concern. The calculations are simply focused on when the initial investment is repaid. From the example above, the N1.5 the earned from new project 1.5m is not profit, its cash received because of the new online ordering system. Payback does not also consider Time Value of money, thus again from our example, the Present Value of N1.5M received is not considered. This Payback is often used as a gateway analysis tool to determine if a project should be considered.

To enhance Payback calculations, many analysts will integrate time value calculation with discount rates to match the future cash flows to today’s cash outlay. This is known as Net Present Value (NPV) which is the present value of the cash flows at a discount rate compared to your initial investment. Thus, NPV compares future cash to today’s cash outlay to determine If project is viable. Eg you discount all future dividends from stock using a discount rate back to today and compare it with a market price to determine if you should buy the stock. If NPV is positive, then the project or investment is good, a negative NPV means the future cash flows are worthless, thus not a good investment. The main problem with NPV in my estimation is the assumption of the discount rate to use. A discount rate that too high or low will skew the results of the NPV and render the output false.

READ ALSO: Nigerian LNG to increase exports, returns profits despite weak gas prices 

The last ROI calculation I want to review is the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Technically the IRR is the rate of return that makes all cashflows rates of return equal to zero, in other words, it is the rate of growth investment is expected to generate annually. The more positive the better. IRR integrates the elements of payback and NPV and is also use in comparing different options and picking the option with the highest value.

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Today, all these formulas are available on Excel sheets and financial calculators on our mobile devices you do not have to be a math’s geek to implement ROI, but I remain a useful tool in comparing projects.

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Investment Tips

Retail franchise investment next gold mine for Nigerian investors- CIG

Retail franchise investment curbs unemployment  and create buffer for people looking for side hustle

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The Choice International Group (CIG) has tasked both unemployed and employed Nigerians to embrace retail franchise investment, as the initiative would curb unemployment in the nation  and create buffer for people looking for side hustle.

In line with a recent FBDS Study, there are over 450,000 Nigerian career professionals with minimum investible funds of N1 million, looking out for investment opportunities.

In the majority, these funds are looking for franchise type opportunities for ease of venturing and minimal failure risk.

As far as CIG chairperson, Diana Chen, is concerned, such investor should look no further but consider the group’s retail franchise investment opportunity, which offers Nigerian community mouth-watering offer of owning Gree & Lontor retail stores.

According to him, Gree is the world’s residential air-conditioner manufacturer, while Lontor provides high-quality, energy-saving and convenient rechargeable home appliances and lighting products for global consumers.

He said, “Both brands have been built by the CIG into a world-class electronic retail chain in Nigeria opening no less than 20 brand shops in Lagos and Oyo over the last 18 months.

“The sales performance of its existing stores in the country makes Gree & Lontor one of the most profitable businesses in Nigeria with yields of an average return on investment of 50% and above per annum.

“CIG is offering investors the opportunity to own any of six regional logistics centres, or any number of Gree & Lontor brand shops in viable locations across Nigeria.

“It is the decision of the company to open up these opportunities to the investing public through a Franchise Retail partnership.”

 

He added that the company has mapped out two investment models it says are simple, transparent, and hassle-free.

“The first model involves only six regional logistics centres located across the geopolitical zones in Nigeria.

“Whoever invests in this will require a capital outlay of $1 million, and become a mega distributor partner of the Gree & Lontor brand, and service a network of brand shops.

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“The second investment model involves the Gree & Lontor brand shops – retail franchise stores that require an initial capital outlay of N20 million.

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“The investor will secure a store size of 120-150sqm at any choice location, shopping mall, plazas, high streets and even residential neighbourhoods.”

What they are saying

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Nigeria is a growth market for franchising and franchise development services.

Gbenga Ajayi, an Entrepreneurship analyst, said, “The retail industry comes second to the food industry among sectors with best franchising opportunities.

“As with other emerging markets, one of the challenges of franchising in Nigeria remains the strengthening of intellectual-property regimes so that franchise companies can transmit knowledge and franchise system concepts with the confidence that such know-how will be protected.

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Investment Tips

Where to invest N500,000 right now

Nairametrics interviewed financial experts on what assets they would invest in if they had N500, 000

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Since a full economic recovery this year is off the table, Nairametrics interviewed some investment experts, entrepreneurs, and corporate heads, on the assets they would invest N500,000 in. The responses varied from buying gold to investing in mutual funds or starting a business.

The world economy is projected to fall by 4.4% in 2020, an upward guide from an earlier predicted rate of -4.9% made in June. The IMF projected that social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic will linger till 2021, but the transmission of the virus will plunge globally by the end of 2022.

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READ: BUA Cement shows resilience to marginally improve bottom line

Temitope Busari, CFA

With fixed income yields at the current levels, my N500k in today’s market will go into a dividend-paying stock or alternative investments.

  • Depending on whether or not I can afford to risk some capital and barring timing constraints, I would buy a stock that offers periodic cashflow in form of dividends.
  • For alternative investments, I would explore high-yielding fixed deposits in the on-lending space.

READ: Thrive Agric: “Where is my money?”

Michael Nwakalor, Macroeconomist at CardinalStone Research

  • The yields in the fixed income markets are currently on the low and producing negative real returns, the equities market provides a viable alternative to earn a total return above inflation.

READ MORE: Trading and Investment for beginners: How to prepare for the stock market

  • I like stocks in the banking sector, as a number of them remain undervalued by fundamental metrics. Several names are on the course to post near double-digit dividend returns by the year-end. A portfolio that includes the following counters – GUARANTY, STANBIC, ETI, FBNH, and ZENITH, should provide adequate exposure to the sector as well.

READ: Onyema, Oniha highlight opportunities for investors in fixed income market

Adaobi Okonkwo, Currency Trader of a leading Tier 1 Bank

  • With a few things to invest in, the most reliable investment that comes to mind is a mutual fund. The fixed income and money markets are currently experiencing a downturn; hence, investing in them could reduce my income spread.
  • However, with a mutual fund, my portfolio of investment in the capital markets is determined by the fund managers with a decent return on investments certainly above the risk-free rate. Gold is a commodity that would yield a good ROI within a specified time frame if I wanted to invest by myself.

READ: FG to inject over N198 billion on capital projects in power sector in 2021

Silas OZOYA, President/CEO, SUBA Capital

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Though quite a small capital, it might not do much if you want to play the long-term investment game. However, it can set the ball rolling.

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  • I would invest it in a high yield investment platform that pays at least 5% returns monthly to cover running costs.
  • Put the money in a fixed deposit and leverage it as collateral to take a debt fund, with a 6 – 12 months moratorium from a commercial bank for a possible expansion of a profitable business. This way, you gain on the debt and still have your N500,000 intact.

(READ MORE:Nigeria’s Macro-economic dashboard for Q3 2020 – Comercio Partners)

Ugonna Thelma Ohiri-Anyanwu, CFA

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With a gift of N500,000, my risk appetite and drive for higher returns,

  • I would invest 50% of the funds (N250,000) on dollar and Eurobonds. This is mainly because of my future needs for FX and also as the need to hedge my currency risk.
  • I would invest 25% of the balance (N125,000) in Ethereum, which would give me a steady cash flow with medium risk.
  • The balance of N125,000 would be invested in Value company shares with low P/E and also stable dividend payments.

READ: CBN reveals framework for the N75 billion Youth Investment Fund

The overall investment portfolio allows for diversification, stable cash flow in both local and FX currency, and currency hedge. These would provide a solid mix between ownership of materially underpriced assets and high dividend-yielding assets.

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READ: Cryptos: Nigerian financial experts talk risks associated with trading digital assets

Bottom line

Amid the rising COVID-19 caseloads prevailing globally, the financial experts interviewed above showed significant diversity on the assets they would invest in, coupled with their different appetite for taking risk reflected on their preferred choices made amid a blurry global economy era.

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