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CBN adjust naira from N360 to N380 at SMIS

Published

5 months ago

on

Total credit to the economy rose to N19.54trillion – CBN Governor, CRR debits, P-AADS, #EndSARS: CBN says funds in frozen accounts may be linked to terrorist activities, Covid-19: Court closures impacted revenue generation for courts - Emefiele, P&ID dispute: UK Court orders $200 million guarantee to FG, Leaked letter by Poultry Farmers Association triggered CBN emergency approval to import maize, nImplications of CBN's latest devaluation and FX unification, current account deficit, IMF, COVID-19, CBN OMO ban could give stocks a much-needed boost , CBN’s N132.56 billion T-bills auction records oversubscription by 327% , Nigeria pays $1.09 billion to service external debt in 9 months , Implications of the new CBN stance on treasury bill sale to individuals, Digital technology and blockchain altering conventional banking models - Emefiele  , Increasing food prices might erase chances of CBN cutting interest rate   , Customer complaint against excess/unauthorized charges hits 1, 612 - CBN , CBN moves to reduce cassava derivatives import worth $600 million  , Invest in infrastructural development - CBN Governor admonishes investors , Credit to government declines, as Credit to private sector hits N25.8 trillion, CBN sets N10 billion minimum capital for Mortgage firms, CBN sets N10 billion minimum capital for Mortgage firms , Why you should be worried about the latest drop in external reserves, CBN, Alert: CBN issues N847.4 billion treasury bills for Q1 2020 , PMI: Nigeria’s manufacturing sector gains momentum in November, CBN warns high foreign credits could collapse Nigeria’s economy, predicts high poverty, MPC Member, BVN, Fitch, Foreign excchange (Forex), Overnight rates crash after CBN’s N1.4 trillion deduction, Nigeria’s foreign reserves hit $36.57 billion; Emefiele keeps his word on defending the naira, CBN to support maize farmers, projects 12.5 million metric tons in 18 months, BREAKING: CBN Upscales Greenwich Trust Limited, grants it's operational license for merchant banking, AGSMEIS: CBN expand beneficiaries to 14,638., CBN expands access to mortgage financing

Reports reaching Nairametrics indicates the CBN has instructed bidders at its Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS) to increase their bidding price to N380/$1 floor. The SMIS is the market where importers bid for forex using Letters of Credit and Form M.

According to our sources, the central bank informed banks that they will only accept bids from N380/$1 and above and no longer N360/$1 meaning those who bid lower will not get any forex allocation. Transaction success in this market is based on bids with those who bid higher than the floor as they are often in an advantageous position to secure forex.

This is essentially a huge attempt at unifying the naira and another adjustment of the exchange rate by the CBN. Recall the CBN Governor had informed investors that the bank will be unifying the exchange rate towards what is being traded at the NAFEX market where investors and exporters trade forex.

Nairametrics understands a circular has been sent to banks but we are yet to see it.

The SMIS window was created by CBN for importers to ease the pressure faced by businesses in the foreign exchange market through sales of foreign currency to authorized dealers (wholesale) or to end users through Authorized dealers. Businesses usually conduct their bid for forex at the SMIS window every two fortnight.

GTBank 728 x 90

Currently, rates are set at a floor of N360/$1 and a ceiling of N385/$1. Thus bidders are expected to bid within that range. The higher the bid the better your chances at getting forex. It is unclear if there were any buyers that bid above N360 as we gather most of the importers were not informed of the changes in prices until today.

In February, the CBN injected $218.41 million into the inter-bank retail Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS). The dollar sold at the time meant for only agricultural and raw materials sectors, is in continuation of its intervention in the inter-bank foreign exchange market. In May, the central bank surprised the market by injecting estimated $90-$100million to the system.

 

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Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- [email protected]

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Currencies

Naira devalued, now N390/$1 as black market (wired) hits N503/$1

Nairametrics can confirm that the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated to N390/$1.

Published

2 days ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Naira stabilizes at black market as CBN continues its intervention in forex market

Nairametrics can confirm that the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated to N390/$1 at the FMDQOTC NAFEX market, an official market where the exchange rate is traded.

We first observed the depreciation in our daily market survey on Thursday, November 26th when it traded at N390/$1. The rate remained the same today confirming that it is not a one-off. The exchange rate closed at N390.25/$1 on Friday after trading at a high price of N400.37 and a low price of N383/$1. The exchange rate at the NAFEX market has traded between  N383 and N385 per dollar respectively.

READ: Naira stabilizes in forex markets as dollar supply hits record low during curfew

CBN Devalues

A recent circular seen by Nairametrics, also suggests the CBN has devalued the exchange rate between the dollar and naira sold to the BDC’s to N390/$1. The circular also mandates the BDCs to sell to potential buyers at N392/$1. The volume of sales for each market is $10,000 per BDC.

READ: Cybersecurity firm, McAfee to raise $814 million through IPO

GTBank 728 x 90

See excerpt of the circular:

Please be advised that the applicable exchange rate for the disbursement of proceeds of IMTOs, for the period Monday, November 30th to Friday, December 14, 2020, is as follows.

I. IMTSOs to banks – N388/1USD

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II. Banks to CBN –  N399/1USD

III. CBN to BDCs – N390/1USD

IV. BDCs to end-users Not more than N392/1USD

V.  Volumes of sale for each market is USD10,000.00 per BDC

READ: Two cryptos you should consider investing in

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The circular seen by Nairametrics was signed by Dr. O.S. Nnaji, Director of Trade and Exchange at the CBN, and dated November 30th, 2020. We also understand the CBN intervened in the market today at a spot price of N393.37/$1 while its 150 days forward rates moved to N399.37 in a bid to clear backlogs.  Nairametrics estimated pent-up demand could be between $2 billion and $3.5 billion.

Stanbic IBTC

What you should know

Last August, the CBN devalued the naira after issuing a circular authorizing dealers instructing them to sell forex to end-users at N386/$1. It was the first time the CBN will be selling forex to BDC traders since it stopped on March 27th as the country faced an imminent lockdown. Since then, the exchange rate at the black market has gone from N395/$1 on March 27, 2020, to N495/$1 as of November 27, 2020, exactly 8months later.

  • The exchange rate at the parallel market (black market) fell to N495/$1 on Friday closing the week at the weakest price since 2017. Wired transfers done outside of the official system closed as high as N503/$1 according to Nairalytics monitored, the research arm of Nairametrics.
  • Just recently, Nairametrics learned that there are limitations to the transfer of forex from domiciliary in Nigeria to accounts in the US. However, it appears there are no restrictions to domiciliary accounts that received inflows attributed to foreign-related income earned doing business or wired inflows.
  • Foreign investors appear to have also found new routes of moving to repatriate their forex out of Nigeria. Some purchase shares of companies that are dual-listed and then sell them on the London Stock Exchange. We understand this may have contributed to the rise in the value of Seplat and New Gold ETF, two stocks that are dual-listed. Airtel, also listed in the UK,  experienced a similar bump in prices.
  • Oil prices rose on Friday as Brent Crude prices traded at $47.9. The CBN needs oil prices to go above $50 if it wants to continue with the controversial policy of defending the exchange rate.

READ: CBN announces resumption of sales of forex to BDC

Local Demand Pressure

Nigeria’s exchange rate situation has entered a precarious era of uncertainty with demand coming from all corners. According to Nairalytics research, Nigerians looking to take advantage of last-minute Black Friday deals in the US have also contributed significantly to the demand pressure. Holidaymakers are also sourcing for forex ahead of the Christmas holiday as they anticipate more devaluations.

Nairalytics research also indicates some of the demand is coming from business with local forex obligations such as servicing dollar-denominated debts, expatriate staff, luxury items, imported items without local substitutes, etc.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

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Currencies

Daily Parallel Market Exchange Rate – ₦490/$1

The US dollar closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market.

Published

3 days ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Forex, NIGERIA: Daily Parallel Market, Exchange Rate

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Friday, November 27th 2020), closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had closed at ₦480/US$1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦490
  • Dollar: $1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦620/₤1 on Friday,  November 27th 2020. The rate had closed at ₦605/₤1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦620
  • Pounds Sterling: ₤1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦570/€1 on Friday November 27th 2020. The rate had closed at ₦560/€1 on Thursday, November 26th 2020.

  • Naira: ₦570
  • Euro: €1
  • Date: November 27th, 2020

Activity: US Dollar closed at ₦490/US$1 in the parallel market

GTBank 728 x 90

READ ALSO: The risk of buying Forex at black market rate of N460/$1 

DateCurrencyBuy(AM)Sell(AM)Buy(PM)Sell(PM)Volatility
11/27/2020Dollar485490485490Low
11/27/2020Pounds615620615620Low
11/27/2020Euro565570565570Low
11/26/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/26/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/26/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/25/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/25/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/25/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/24/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/24/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/24/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/23/2020Dollar475480475480Low
11/23/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/23/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/20/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/20/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/20/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/19/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/19/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/19/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/18/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/18/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/18/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/17/2020Dollar465470465470Low
11/17/2020Pounds600605600605Low
11/17/2020Euro555560555560Low
11/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/16/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/16/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/13/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/13/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/12/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/12/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/12/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/11/2020Dollar455460455460Low
11/11/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/11/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/10/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/10/2020Pounds583587583587Low
11/10/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/09/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/06/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/06/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/05/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/05/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/05/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/04/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/04/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/04/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/03/2020Dollar457462457462Low
11/03/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/03/2020Euro535540535540Low
11/02/2020Dollar457460457460Low
11/02/2020Pounds585590585590Low
11/02/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/30/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/30/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/29/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/29/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/28/2020Dollar457460457460Low
10/28/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/27/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/27/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/27/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/26/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/26/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/26/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/23/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/23/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/22/2020Dollar457461457461Low
10/22/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/22/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/21/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/21/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/21/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/20/2020Dollar456460456460Low
10/20/2020Pounds582593582593Low
10/20/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/19/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/19/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/19/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/16/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/16/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/16/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/15/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/15/2020Pounds583592583592Low
10/15/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/14/2020Dollar455460455460Low
10/14/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/14/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/13/2020Dollar453458455460Low
10/13/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/13/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/12/2020Dollar452458452458Low
10/12/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/12/2020Euro530535530535Low
10/09/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/09/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/09/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/08/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/08/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/08/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/07/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/07/2020Pounds585590585590Low
10/07/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/06/2020Dollar452457452457Low
10/06/2020Pounds580585580585Low
10/06/2020Euro535540535540Low
10/05/2020Dollar452455452455Low
10/05/2020Pounds570580570580Low
10/05/2020Euro540545540545Low
10/02/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/02/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/02/2020Euro530540530540Low
10/01/2020Dollar460465460465Low
10/01/2020Pounds575585575585Low
10/01/2020Euro530540530540Low
9/30/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/30/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/30/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/29/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/29/2020Pounds565575570580Low
9/29/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/28/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/28/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/28/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/25/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/25/2020Pounds565575565575Low
9/25/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/24/2020Dollar460465460465Low
9/24/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/24/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/23/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/23/2020Pounds580585580585Low
9/23/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/22/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/22/2020Pounds575585575580Low
9/22/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/21/2020Dollar453455450455Low
9/21/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/21/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/18/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/18/2020Pounds575595575595Low
9/18/2020Euro535540535540Low
9/17/2020Dollar455460455460Low
9/17/2020Pounds570580570580Low
9/17/2020Euro530535530535Low
9/16/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/16/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/16/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/15/2020Dollar450460450460Low
9/15/2020Pounds565570565570Low
9/15/2020Euro525530525530Low
9/14/2020Dollar445455445455Low
9/14/2020Pounds560575560575Low
9/14/2020Euro515525515525Low
09/11/2020Dollar450455450455Low
09/11/2020Pounds555565555565Low
09/11/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/10/2020Dollar455460455460Low
09/10/2020Pounds545560545560Low
09/10/2020Euro525530525530Low
09/09/2020Dollar430440430440Low
09/09/2020Pounds540555540555Low
09/09/2020Euro500510500510Low
09/08/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/08/2020Pounds540550540550Low
09/08/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/07/2020Dollar435440435440Low
09/07/2020Pounds525530525530Low
09/07/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/04/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/04/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/04/2020Euro505515505515Low
09/03/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/03/2020Pounds560580560580Low
09/03/2020Euro520535505515High
09/02/2020Dollar425440425440Low
09/02/2020Pounds570580560580Low
09/02/2020Euro535540520535Low
09/01/2020Dollar462465435440High
09/01/2020Pounds565575570580Low
09/01/2020Euro535540535540Low
8/31/2020Dollar463470460465High
8/31/2020Pounds585595580590Low
8/31/2020Euro540545540545Low
8/28/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/28/2020Pounds580595580595Low
8/28/2020Euro545552545552Low
8/27/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/27/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/27/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/26/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/26/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/26/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/25/2020Dollar472477472477Low
8/25/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/25/2020Euro542552542552Low
8/24/2020Dollar473477473477Low
8/24/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/24/2020Euro542550542550Low
8/21/2020Dollar474477474477Low
8/21/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/21/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/20/2020Dollar475478473477Low
8/20/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/20/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/19/2020Dollar475480475480Low
8/19/2020Pounds575585575585Low
8/19/2020Euro540550540550Low
8/18/2020Dollar477480477480Low
8/18/2020Pounds575580575580Low
8/18/2020Euro545550545550Low
8/17/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/17/2020Pounds580590580590Low
8/17/2020Euro525535525535Low
8/14/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/14/2020Pounds570580570580Low
8/14/2020Euro525535520535Low
8/13/2020Dollar470475470475Low
8/13/2020Pounds570575565575Low
8/13/2020Euro525530520530Low
08/12/2020Dollar470475470475Low
08/12/2020Pounds570575570575Low
08/12/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/11/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/11/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/11/2020Euro510523520535Low
08/10/2020Dollar477485477485Low
08/10/2020Pounds572584572584Low
08/10/2020Euro510523520535High
08/07/2020Dollar475486475486Low
08/07/2020Pounds578585578585Low
08/07/2020Euro536550536550Low
08/06/2020Dollar470480475486Low
08/06/2020Pounds575587578585Low
08/06/2020Euro534545536550Low
08/05/2020Dollar465475473483Low
08/05/2020Pounds570580575587Low
08/05/2020Euro525540532545Low
08/04/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/04/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/04/2020Euro520530520530Low
08/03/2020Dollar470480470480Low
08/03/2020Pounds560570560570Low
08/03/2020Euro520530520530Low
7/31/2020Dollar470480470485High
7/31/2020Pounds570582575585Low
7/31/2020Euro500520505520Low
7/30/2020Dollar470490470485High
7/30/2020Pounds550570550580High
7/30/2020Euro495520500525High
7/29/2020Dollar468475467475Low
7/29/2020Pounds575585580590Low
7/29/2020Euro530540530545Low
7/28/2020Dollar469475467475Low
7/28/2020Pounds575593580595Low
7/28/2020Euro550560540550Low
7/27/2020Dollar465473466473Low
7/27/2020Pounds570580575583Low
7/27/2020Euro510520515530Low
7/24/2020Dollar465472464472Low
7/24/2020Pounds570580572582Low
7/24/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/23/2020Dollar460472465472Low
7/23/2020Pounds565575565580Low
7/23/2020Euro510520505520Low
7/22/2020Dollar465472465472Low
7/22/2020Pounds565575560578Low
7/22/2020Euro510525510528Low
7/21/2020Dollar461472462472Low
7/21/2020Pounds560573560575Low
7/21/2020Euro498515500520Low
7/20/2020Dollar460473462473Low
7/20/2020Pounds550570555575Low
7/20/2020Euro495505500510Low
7/17/2020Dollar462470460470Low
7/17/2020Pounds560570558570Low
7/17/2020Euro490500490500Low
7/16/2020Dollar460470460470Low
7/16/2020Pounds558565560570Low
7/16/2020Euro485495485499Low
7/15/2020Dollar455465455470Low
7/15/2020Pounds560565558570Low
7/15/2020Euro485495488498Low
7/14/2020Dollar448462455470Low
7/14/2020Pounds540550557570Low
7/14/2020Euro485495489498Low
7/13/2020Dollar450460448462Low
7/13/2020Pounds540550540550Low
7/13/2020Euro485495485495Low
07/10/2020Dollar453460458465Low
07/10/2020Pounds520525550555High
07/10/2020Euro465467510520High
07/09/2020Dollar455461455463Low
07/09/2020Pounds550558550562Low
07/09/2020Euro495504498505Low
07/08/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/08/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/08/2020Euro495504495504Low
07/07/2020Dollar455461455461Low
07/07/2020Pounds550558550558Low
07/07/2020Euro495502495502Low
07/06/2020Dollar455462455461Low
07/06/2020Pounds550562547555Low
07/06/2020Euro495502496502Low
07/03/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/03/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/03/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/02/2020Dollar455462454461Low
07/02/2020Pounds548560550560Low
07/02/2020Euro495505495502Low
07/01/2020Dollar455462455462Low
07/01/2020Pounds548560548560Low
07/01/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/30/2020Dollar452460452460Low
6/30/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/30/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/29/2020Dollar450460450460Low
6/29/2020Pounds547560547560Low
6/29/2020Euro495505495505Low
6/26/2020Dollar452457452460Low
6/26/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/26/2020Euro490498490502Low
6/25/2020Dollar452457450455Low
6/25/2020Pounds547557547560Low
6/25/2020Euro490498490499Low
6/24/2020Dollar450460450455Low
6/24/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/24/2020Euro490495488498Low
6/23/2020Dollar450460445455Low
6/23/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/23/2020Euro490495490495Low
6/22/2020Dollar450455450455Low
6/22/2020Pounds545555545555Low
6/22/2020Euro488498488498Low
6/19/2020Dollar445455445455Low
6/19/2020Pounds540553540553Low
6/19/2020Euro480490480490Low
6/18/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/18/2020Pounds537550537550Low
6/18/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/17/2020Dollar445452445452Low
6/17/2020Pounds540553537550Low
6/17/2020Euro475490475490Low
6/16/2020Dollar440450445452Low
6/16/2020Pounds540550540553Low
6/16/2020Euro475485475490Low
6/15/2020Dollar440450440450Low
6/15/2020Pounds540550540550Low
6/15/2020Euro475485475485Low
06/12/2020Dollar440450440450Low
06/12/2020Pounds538550538550Low
06/12/2020Euro470485470485Low
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30/08/2019Pounds442448440445Low
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31/07/2019Pounds458463458463Low
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28/06/2019Pounds457460457462Low
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Data is collated from various black market dealers on the mainland and island parts of Lagos State where forex is sold. The price quoted daily on this page represents the average price obtained by our Research Team. Our prices are a guide and could be slightly different from the price you get when you eventually decide to buy or sell. This is a daily tracker and updated close of business. See table below for parallel market exchange rate dating to 2019.

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Currencies

Dollar Exchange Rate: The demand and supply crossroads

If the supply of dollars from the CBN meets or exceeds the demand for Naira by importers, then the dollar exchange rate weakens in favour of the Naira.

Published

3 days ago

on

November 27, 2020

By

Why exchange rate disparity remains high despite CBN’s intervention

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Godwin Emefiele recently mentioned that the “parallel market”, otherwise known as the black market is “only 5% of the total foreign exchange market, it is shallow and cannot be used to determine the true exchange value for the naira.”

This is also not the first time the CBN Governor has attacked the black market. In Abuja, he infamously ‘cut down the trees’ that gave the currency exchangers shade from the sun, to convert dollar cash to Naira. On May 18th, 2018, the CBN Governor also told investors “don’t go to the black market, because you will lose money by buying at a price that is not realistic.”

The CBN’s argument is simple, you cannot use the price discovery on a small market to determine the market price on a larger market. Respectfully, the CBN Governor is wrong.

The black market is small but the market price of exchanging $1 to N480 reflects the demand from all buyers, in contrast with the CBN official rate of N380 at NAFEX, which does not include the item not eligible for CBN forex.

The CBN has maintained an updated list of imports that cannot access the said NAFEX window including, Rice, Cement, Poultry, Meat, Iron rods, Cocoa butter, powder and cakes, amongst others.

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Hence, the CBN bans these importers from accessing forex from NAFEX, essentially calling the market rates “unrealistic”, then the CBN asks importers of staple food like rice to go to the same “unrealistic” market, that according to the CBN Governor “is a tainted market, where people who desire to deal in an illegal exchange of transactions deal.”

How is the price of a commodity or asset determined?

John Locke, a famous philosopher is credited with the first serious description of demand and supply and how it affects prices. In his 1691 letter to the English Parliament, titled: “Some Considerations on the Consequences of the Lowering of Interest and the Raising of the Value of Money,” he said the price of any commodity rises or falls by the proportion of the number of buyers and sellers.

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He said, “that which regulates the price of goods of assets is nothing else but their quantity in proportion to their demand.”

He further said, the demand for money is exclusively regulated by its quantity, regardless of whether the demand for money is unlimited or constant. For supply, he explains the value of goods as based on their scarcity and ability to be exchanged and consumed.

Johns Locke’s theories were the basis of Adam Smith’s book  “Wealth of Nations“, in which he laid out the principles of demand and supply. Those theories now form the basis of economics and trade.

In economics, demand and supply intersect and the price is discovered. If there is more demand but supply is constant, price rises; if supply is more, but demand is constant, then price falls.

In effect, if the supply of dollars from the CBN meets or exceeds the demand for Naira by importers, then the dollar exchange rate weakens in favour of the Naira.

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For the CBN exchange rate to reflect the true value of the naira, it must be an inclusive market where all buyers and sellers of foreign exchange can meet and agree on a price.

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The CBN is worried about pass-through inflation, that if rice is imported using the market-determined exchange rate, the importers will simply pass through that exchange rate to local consumers; thus, triggering a rise in prices driven by the exchange rate.

The problem is that it is already happening, food price has been rising based on the data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, caused by higher imported food cost and lower local supply due to banditry in parts of the North East, and has risen from 14.85 in January to 17.38 in October 2020.

The price to exchange one US Dollar to the Nigerian Naira can only be discovered in a free, fair, and transparent market, open to all with the “invisible hand” acting as regulator, no other way.

Follow Kalu Aja on Twitter: @FinPlanKaluAja1

Also check out: https://feeds.captivate.fm/the-way-i-see-it/

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