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Global stocks records astronomical gains in Q2 2020

Emerged and emerging market stock prices overall also gained about 17% in the second quarter.

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Global stocks records astronomical gains in Q2 2020

Global stocks had outstanding returns in major markets in Q2 2020, triggered by America’s biggest economy, as major Wall Street stocks recorded their best quarter in more than 20 years boosted by monetary policyholders’ stimulus packages at enormous levels.

The S&P 500 index gained more than 20% in Q2 2020, printing the largest gain since the final quarter of 1998. Emerged and emerging market stock prices overall also gained about 17% in the second quarter, according to MSCI’s All-Country World index.

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Europe’s Stoxx 600 also printed an upside of 13%, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index up 15%.

“Stimulus measures announced by central banks around the world, including a series of interventions by the US Federal Reserve to soothe unsteady markets, helped to lift stocks in April,” Max Kettner, strategist at HSBC told FT. Rising hopes for a rapid recovery in major economies helped to keep the momentum going later in the quarter. 

“Equities rebounded significantly in the second quarter with more than three-quarters of the losses in Q1 2020 already recovered,” Max Kettner added.

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READ MORE:Investors gain N15.58 billion amidst sell-offs in Nigerian bank stocks

However, present macros, shows that the recent resurgence on COVID-19 cases could limit the bullish trend in Q3 2020

“The resurgence in the virus is not a surprise,” said Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America. “However, downside risks are growing.”

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Mr. Harris said he expected, “some reversal in economic activity in the hotspots as rules are reluctantly reversed and people become more cautious”. Goldman Sachs research indicates lockdowns are tightening or the easing of restrictions has been put on hold for 40% of the US population.

 

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Patricia

Olumide Adesina a French-born Nigerian, an Investment Professional at Nairametrics Financial Advocates, owners of Nairametrics.com. He is a Certified Investment Trader, with more than a decade working expertise in Investment Trading. A member of the Chartered Financial Analyst Society. Financial Market; Yale University, Behavioral Finance; Duke University. You can follow Olumide on twitter @tokunboadesina or email [email protected]

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Currencies

Naira crashes to an all-time low at the black market as liquidity crisis worsens 

The volatility and uncertainty of the forex market seem to persist due to liquidity shortages across markets. 

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Naira remains stable at the black market, Brent crude moves past $40 per barrel

Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window continued with its downward slide on Wednesday, July 1, 2020, as it dropped by 28% day on day. This is according to data from the FMDQOTC, an exchange where forex is traded by foreign investors and exporters.  

According to the data tracked by Nairametrics, forex turnover fell from $14.37 million on Tuesday, June 30, 2020, to as low as $10.37 million on Wednesday, July 1, 2020, representing a 28% drop on a day-to-day basis. This is a second consecutive day of decline this week and also the lowest turnover recorded in the I&E window since last week.  

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This further reinforces the volatile and uncertain nature of the foreign exchange market with trading volumes apparently irregular and piling pressure on the exchange rate at the NAFEX market and by extension the parallel market.   

The volatility and uncertainty of the forex market seem to persist due to liquidity shortages across markets.  Liquidity remains quite tight in the foreign exchange market, with the average turnover in the I&E market significantly down to about $45.5 million in the month of May compared to $297.5 million that was recorded in January.  

As we have so often reported, accumulated demand for forex in the market is thought to range between $1.5 and $5 billion depending on which analyst you are speaking to. Forex shortages have persisted since the crash in oil prices coincided with the global lockdown due to COVID-19. The rise in demand and contrasting drop in supply has called for another round of devaluation, which the CBN has insisted it has plans to implement. A devaluation last occurred in March. The activities of the speculators seem to have continued unabated.  

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Speculators have thus patronized the parallel market, otherwise known as the black market, thereby widening the gap between it and the I&E window. The CBN maintains that the perceived demand cannot be substantiated as the lockdown induced by the COVID-19 pandemic suggest demand should be low due to travel restrictions and drop-in economic activities.  

The further decline in liquidity could further fuel speculations in the black market where the exchange rate has traded at a premium of N60+ over the last few weeks. The CBN claims most of the demand being cited is not represented by any official documentation and that it has informed foreign investors with genuine forex demand to be “patient” and that they will get their forex. 

Exchange rate   

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In related news, the exchange rate at the I&E remained stable on Wednesday, closing at N386.50 to a dollar, which was the same rate that was recorded on Tuesday, June 30. The opening indicative rate was N387.08to a dollar on Wednesday. This represents a loss of 2 kobo when compared to the N387.10opening rate recorded on Tuesday.  

At the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the naira depreciated further by N2 to a dollar to close at an all time low of N462 to a dollar on Wednesday, as against the N460 to a dollar on Tuesday, the lowest in almost a year. The exchange rate at the beginning of the week was N460 to a dollar.By crossing N460, the exchange rate has broken a psychological ceiling going past N460 for the first time ever.  

Nigeria continues to maintain multiple exchange rates comprising the CBN official rate, the BDC rates, and the NAFEX (I&E window). Nairametrics reported last week that the government is mulling unifying the multiple exchange rates in a bid to increase the amount available for state governments to share.  

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The depreciation of the Naira in the black market can be attributed to the shortage of dollar supply which is outweighed by demand as that puts further pressure on the forex market. The negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic on global oil prices has constrained the CBN’s capacity to intervene satisfactorily in the foreign exchange market as dollar inflow has slumped. 

The forex scarcity and drop in revenue puts pressure on the value on the naira despite CBN’s effort to maintain stability across the forex segments. The CBN is expected to continue with its intervention in the foreign exchange market to ensure market stability. 

 

Patricia
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Coronavirus

COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 1st of July 2020, 790 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 26,484.

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The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria touched a new milestone as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 26,484 confirmed cases.

On the 1st of July 2020, 790 new confirmed cases and 13 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 4,205 samples across the country.

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To date, 26,484 cases have been confirmed, 10,152 cases have been discharged and 603 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 138,462 tests have been carried out as of July 1st, 2020 compared to 134,257 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 1st July 2020

  • Total Number of Cases – 26,484
  • Total Number Discharged – 10,152
  • Total Deaths – 603
  • Total Tests Carried out – 138,462

According to the NCDC, the 790 new cases were reported from 21 states- Delta (166), Lagos (120), Enugu (66), FCT (65), Edo (60), Ogun (43), Kano (41), Kaduna (39), Ondo (33), Rivers (32), Bayelsa (29), Katsina (21), Imo (20), Kwara (18), Oyo (11), Abia (10), Benue (6), Gombe (4), Yobe (2), Bauchi (2), Kebbi (2).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 10,630, followed by Abuja (1,935), Oyo (1,391), Kano (1,257), Edo (1,165), Delta (1,131) Rivers (1,088), Ogun (869),  Kaduna (805), Katsina (578), Gombe (507). Bauchi (505), Borno (493), Ebonyi (438), Plateau (382), Imo (352), Enugu (327), Ondo (325), Abia (320), Jigawa (318).

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Kwara state has recorded 235 cases, Bayelsa (234), Nasarawa (213), Sokoto (151), Osun (127), Niger (116), Akwa Ibom (86), Adamawa (84), Kebbi (81), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Benue (65), Yobe (61), Ekiti (43), Taraba (19), while Kogi state has recorded 4 cases.

 

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
July 1, 2020264847906031310152157297
June 30, 202025694561590179746153587
June 29, 20202513356657389402151587
June 28, 20202486749056579007149957
June 27, 20202407777955848625148947
June 26, 20202329868455458253144917
June 25, 20202261459454977822142437
June 24, 20202202064954297613138657
June 23, 20202137145253387338135007
June 22, 20202091967552577109132857
June 21, 202020242436518126879128477
June 20, 202019808661506196718125847
June 19, 202019147667487126581120797
June 18, 20201848074547566307116987
June 17, 202017735587469145967112997
June 16, 202017148490455315623110707
June 15, 20201665857342445349108857
June 14, 202016085403420135220104457
June 13, 20201568250140785101101747
June 12, 20201518162739912489198917
June 11, 2020145546813875449496737
June 10, 20201387340938217435191407
June 9, 2020134646633654420688937
June 8, 2020128013153617404084007
June 7, 20201248626035412395981737
June 6, 2020122333893429382680657
June 5, 20201184432833310369678157
June 4, 2020115163503238353576467
June 3, 2020111663483151332975227
June 2, 20201081924131415323972667
June 1, 20201057841629912312271579
May 31, 20201016230728714300768687
May 30, 2020985555327312285667267
May 29, 202093023872612269763447
May 28, 202089151822595259260647
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

Patricia
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Energy

Update: FG increases fuel price to N143.80 per litre

This was disclosed by Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) in a circular.

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The Federal Government has announced an increase in the new pump price of Premium Motor Spirit, otherwise known as Petrol, to N143.80 per litre.

According to a monitored report, this was disclosed by Executive Secretary of Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA), Abdulkadir Saidu, in a circular dated Wednesday, July 1, 2020, to oil marketers,

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The statement from the circular says, ‘’After a review of the prevailing market fundamentals in the month of June and considering marketers’ realistic operating costs, as much as practicable, we wish to advise a new PMS pump price band of N140.80-N143.80 per litre for the month of July 2020.’’

‘’All marketers are advised to operate within the indicative prices by the PPPRA.’’

He also pointed out that the ex-depot for collection include the statutory charges of bridging fund, maritime transport average, National Transport Allowance and administrative charges.

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The federal government had a few months ago announced its plans to stop the subsidy payment regime as they said that the downstream sector of the oil industry will be fully deregulated. The government said that the prices of all petroleum products which includes fuel would be fully determined by market forces, following the removal of the existing cap on fuel prices.

PPPRA had stated that it arrived at the new price regime after taking into consideration the operating costs of the oil marketers.

It can be recalled that at the beginning of the month of June, there was a minor adjustment of fuel price as it was fixed at N121.50 per litre from N123.50 per litre in May. The new price in July represents an over N20 per litre increase when compared to the price last month.

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Patricia
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