The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continue to record significant increase as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 29,789 confirmed cases.

On the 7th of July 2020, 503 new confirmed cases and 15 deaths were recorded in Nigeria, having carried out a total daily test of 1,831 samples across the country.

To date, 29,879 cases have been confirmed, 12,108 cases have been discharged and 669 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. A total of 152,952 tests have been carried out as of July 6th, 2020 compared to 151,121 tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 7th July 2020

• Total Number of Cases – 29,789
• Total Number Discharged – 12,108
• Total Deaths – 669
• Total Tests Carried out – 152,952

According to the NCDC, the 503 new cases were reported from 20 states- Lagos (153), Ondo (76) Edo (54), FCT (41), Enugu (37), Rivers (30), Benue (24), Osun (20), Kaduna (15), Kwara (13), Abia (9), Borno (8), Plateau (6),Taraba (5), Ogun (3), Kano (3), Kebbi (2), Nasarawa (2), Bayelsa (1), Gombe (1).

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 11,520, followed by Abuja (2,322), Oyo (1,530), Edo (1,489), Delta (1,285), Kano (1,271), Rivers (1,235), Ogun (1,050),  Kaduna (883), Katsina (628), Borno (555), Ondo (550), Gombe (521), Bauchi (516), Ebonyi (503), Plateau (460), Enugu (418), Abia (400),  Imo (352), Jigawa (318).

Kwara state has recorded 297 cases, Bayelsa (269), Nasarawa (234), Osun (198), Sokoto (153),  Niger (122), Benue (121), Akwa Ibom (112), Adamawa (99), Kebbi (86), Zamfara (76), Anambra (73), Yobe (61), Ekiti (45), Taraba (27), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases.

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020.

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If you ask anyone today to choose between being paid in dollars or in naira, there will only be one winner. Since the oil price crash in early March and the ravaging COVID-19 virus, the exchange rate between the naira and dollar has depreciated across the multiple official and unofficial markets where the currency can be purchased. 

At the black market, the exchange rate sells for an average N460/$1 (as at this week) and is projected to go higher depending on who you speak to. At the NAFEX market where forex is sold by exporters and investors, the exchange rate is closer to N388/$1 oscillating between a plus or minus N2 band. Just last week the CBN informed the market that the SMIS window where forex is sold to importers and traders that the new floor for forex purchase in N380/$1. The exchange rate at the official CBN window remains N360/$1.  

READ ALSO: Investors lose N162 billion amidst buying pressure from ZENITH, GTBANK 

This buttresses the growing calls for the unification of the various exchange rate windows. The market wants a single uniform rate. It is easy to see why. No one wants to be on the losing side if a repeat of 2017 occurs. In case you forgot, the exchange rate was highly volatile in the parallel market trading for as high as N505/$1 before crashing down to N366/$1 after the CBN introduced the NAFEX window. Many people lost money as the naira converged towards that rate. You don’t be in this boat if history repeats itself.  

This is why speculating the exchange rate between the naira and dollar can be a brutally risky exercise compounded by the multiple exchange windows in the country. Buy at N460/$1 today and hold as most non-savvy speculators often do and the multiple forex windows are collapsed into one at N388/$1, as the central bank governor alludes to, things could get very risky. If unifying the exchange unlocks liquidity into the market rate and it holds at N388/$1, there is every likelihood that the parallel market rate will follow suit. Those on the other side of the trade looking to convert their dollars (purchased at N460/$1) into naira will be burned badly.  

Perhaps a consolation is that so long as Nigeria continues to be import-dependent, it is only a matter of time before the naira depreciates to your buying price. Between 2012 and 2017, the naira has depreciated by 30% compounded annually. You probably only need to wait another 2-3 years and you claw back your losses. But the same cannot be said for anyone with a dollar investment and looking to convert to naira. The burn can be severe. 

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For example, you purchase $1,000 at N460 and invest in an asset that should earn you 10% or $100 in profits. If by the time you liquidate your $1,100 and the exchange rate has strengthened to say N400, your $1100 is now N440,000 compared to the N460,000 it cost you when you purchased at $1,000. The exchange rate loss has basically wiped out your profits and part of your capital.  

Speculating in forex is hugely rewarding but also very risky. Don’t be fooled to believe it only goes up, things can go down faster than you can imagine. The market will always deliver greater fools. 

The COVID-19 pandemic is unarguably the greatest disruption of recent times. Not only has the world been faced with the existence of a real-life plague, but its impact has also been felt across industries, economies, markets, and more. Yet, corporate organizations successfully raised at least N222.6 billion from the 24th of March till date, covering the toughest periods of the economic impact of the pandemic itself as well as the pandemic-induced lockdown.

Across the world, businesses and companies alike have sought out ways to curb the menace that is the pandemic through the introduction of cost-cutting measures to withstand the storm. However, in the midst of this, an array of companies have also sought out ways to raise finance to ensure their sustainability while also leveraging the relatively cheap opportunity to raise capital.

READ ALSO: NSE promotes gold as viable option in the current investment landscape

Increase in Listing

Data from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) reveals corporate bodies and the government have raised capital and facilitated secondary market trading activities worth over N1.8 trillion. A number of securities have also been listed on FMDQ. Methods used cut across Rights Issues, private placements, bond listings, etc., and they have been supposedly geared towards supporting working capital needs of the organizations, facilitating business expansion and more.

Listings over the period include; LAPO Microfinance Bank’s bond worth N6.2 Billion, NewGold ETF valued at N7 Billion, UACN Property Development Plc’s N16 Billion Rights Issue, Dangote Cement Plc’s bond worth N100 Billion, FBNQuest Merchant Bank’s Series-1 N5Bn Bond, Flour Mills’ N30 Billion Series 13 & 14 Commercial Paper programme, Primero BRT Securitisation SPV Plc bond worth N16.1Bn Bond, and the Golden Guinea Breweries Plc’s private placement of N1.2 Billion. Also listed are MTN Nigeria Communications plc’s proposed series of N50 billion and Transcorp Hotel’s N10 billion Rights Issue.

In addition to this, several Government Bonds worth over N797 Billion have also been listed within the past few months. Other companies have also listed capital financial issues include Guinness Nigeria (N5 billion) and United Capital (N20 billion) through commercial papers, also offering low-interest rates to suit the overall trajectory of the economy.

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The amounts raised

Of the various amounts listed over the same period, Flour Mills has raised N7 billion. FBNQuest Merchant Bank’s 5 billion issuance was 2.3 times oversubscribed but news reports are not clear as to how much was actually received; UACN Property Development raised N16 billion; Dangote Cement was 1.5 times oversubscribed, raising N155 billion; The Golden Guinea Breweries, Primero BRT Securitisation SPV, and NewGold ETF were all 100% subscribed at  N1.2 billion, N16.1 billion, and N7 billion respectively. United Capital raised N5.3 billion in Commercial paper issuance and N10 billion in its Series 1 Bond issuance, and LAPO Microfinance is ongoing. This brings the total amount raised in the period to at least, N222.6 billion.

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The attraction with raising capital in a COVID-19 era

The pandemic has brought about the world’s worst statistics and Nigeria is no exception with rising inflation juxtaposed with lower-than-normal interest rates – and that appears to be the catch. A common phenomenon across these bond listings is that many have been oversubscribed despite COVID-19 headwinds. In other words, with very limited opportunities available across markets, investors have rushed at many of these bonds at their comparatively low coupon rates. Given that these investments are locked at fixed interest rates, companies now have the opportunity to piggyback growth strategies on affordable capital raising. With investors, on the other hand, grappling for opportunities to shield their funds from inflation, the situation appears to take the semblance of a win-win situation.