Stock trading is in a large part, a game of signals. Depending on what strategy you are using, either algorithms, black boxes, fundamental analysis or technical analysis of charting, most traders trade based on signals generated by whatever trading or stock-picking system they use. While signals can be picked from different sources and used from a combination of systems or strategies, one area that can signal a buy or sell is directors’ share dealings.
Asymmetric information arises when one party to an economic transaction has more material knowledge in a transaction than another. This is one of the agency problems in corporate governance. It happens in companies because the directors know and have more knowledge about the financial health of a company than the shareholders.
Because of that privileged “advanced” knowledge that company directors have about the health and well being of the companies they oversee, investors should take notice of and interest in the buying and selling of company shares by the directors, as such activities can be loaded with profitable entry or exit signals
How to Uncover Directors’ Share Dealings
Insider dealing is a stock trading crime and as such, insiders such like directors send notifications to the regulatory authorities about their intension to buy and sell shares of their companies or the actual transactions. More often than not, the authorities, like the Nigeria Stock Exchange, publish such notifications to keep the public in the loop. The Nigerian Stock Exchange, in particular, publishes “notification of share dealing by insider”. By typing that into the search window on their website, you arrive at a list of such events. There have been about 74 insider share dealing notifications on the Exchange’s website since January 1, 2020.
It is through those publications that one can gain knowledge of and the thinking of insiders about the direction of a company. For example, in one of the latest of such publications, on May 21, 2020, to be precise, the managing director and CEO of AIICO Insurance, Babatunde Fajemirokun, notified the exchange that he bought 3,769,586 shares of AIICO insurance on May 20th, 2020, at a price of N0.96. The question that readily comes to mind is why would an MD buy the shares of his company? The common-sense answer, among others, is because he wants to make money from such purchases, and the only way, he can make money is if the share increases in price after the purchases. Therefore, the fact that the managing director, an insider, bought the shares, is an indication that he thinks, based on all the facts that he has or knows about the company, that the shares of the company are bound for an increase in the near future. True to that thinking, the shares of AIICO closed the week at a price of N1.01, giving the MD an unrealized gain of N0.05 per share or N188,479.3 on that transaction, alone. The signaling impact, in this case, is even more glaring when one takes note of the fact that a few days earlier, on May 18th, 2020, the same managing director of AIICO Insurance bought 1,198,330 shares of AIICO at N0.90 per share. In fact, from May 15th through May 20th, the MD bought over 6 million shares of AIICO Insurance. The above case study underscores how following or paying attention to insider share dealings can be used as a trading strategy or one of the ways to discover a stock trading signal.
What Research says
It is not only in Nigeria that things of this sort happen, it happens all over the world and it has been happening over a long time, so much such that it had elicited and continues to elicit research interest among academics and analysts. A research conducted by Jaffe (1974) and Finnerty (1976) indicated that using director dealings as a trading signal produced abnormal returns in the months following. This finding has been agreed to by other researchers like Givoly and Palman (1985), and Jeng, Metric, and Zeckhauser (2002), although Grivoly and Palman attributed part of the added return to price increases due to investors mimicking directors. There are other researches, though, that found out that using directors’ dealings as signals may not yield the required results due to trading costs.
Time is Money
In a not too efficient market, like that of Nigeria, insider or directors share dealings can provide a profitable trading signal, but such signals may not last forever. Therefore, time is of the essence for those who want to explore such trading strategies. The earlier you discover such signals and act on them, the better you will be positioned to derive the benefits that may accrue from them.
There’s a caveat
Note that this presentation is not and should not be construed as investment advice. Anyone who uses the strategy does so at his/her own risk with no liability of any sort from the author and publisher.
In a hyperinflation economy like Nigeria’s, these are the best investments to consider immediately
A deeper review of investments to consider amid the prevailing high inflation in Nigeria.
Let’s face it, Nigeria’s rising inflation plus lower options for high yielding investments are already driving a significant number of investors away from Africa’s leading frontier market. This is coming at a time when Nigeria’s top performing investment asset class for 2020 is currently having a year-to-date return of around -3.30%.
Recent data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reveals Nigerian inflation rate surged to a 33-month high, as it rose further to 16.47% in January 2021 from 15.75% in December 2020. This is marks 17th consecutive month of rising inflation in the country.
Consequently, Nairametrics interviewed selected financial experts on the investment options best suitable for such macro.
That being said, it’s important to note that there are no guarantees when it comes to investing during high inflation. At best, such investments may be inflation-safe, but returns can never be guaranteed.
Debo Adejana, MD/CEO, Realty Point Limited, Chairman, REDAN South West Zone.
At 16.5% inflation rate as of January 2021, the obvious is that there are very little short-term investments that can outperform that especially in the short term. So, that being said, my traditional conservative disposition of the fact that the best investment term is the long-term.
To make returns that will consistently be higher than 16.5% in short term investments will require very good knowledge of the asset class and share dedication.
If that is clear, then by my own understanding, the following are some of the possible investment areas or strategies to adopt with real estate being my most preferred asset class anytime:
- Financial player in a JV Property Development Scheme. This helps to save time and gives faster turnover of investment fund.
- Buying distressed property now, renovate, rent-out for 2years of more just to hold if necessary and sell after.
- Crowd owning/funding property deals
- Guaranteed rent discounting
- International property investment for positive cash flow and to enjoy foreign exchange appreciation
All the above can be done as a large ticket investor or little fractional holder using a well-structured and regulated vehicle.
Darlington-Morsi Onyemaka, Co-founder, Quba Exchange
Inflation means that prices for things are rising, and as such the same amount of money buys less over a certain period of time. This in itself is especially not good for cash savings as the best way to manage inflation is by investing in instruments that give you a return higher than the current rate of inflation or at least one that keeps up with it.
The best kinds of assets to invest in during inflation are tangible assets that have fundamental values and as such, their worth measures up together with inflation. These assets include real estate, growth stocks, and commodities like food, crude oil, and gold (especially gold).
On the flip side, one should avoid long-term fixed-income investments. This is because the value of the underlying security falls as investors tend to focus on higher-yielding alternatives when the interest rates of that instrument start rising.
Thelma Ugonna Ohiri-Anyanwu, CFA
Inflation is the increase in prices of goods over a period of time, where a specific amount of currency will be able to buy less than before.
In as much as inflation erodes the value of funds, this should not deter one from investing as some investment’s types are great hedge against inflation and helps to preserve capital. Some of such investments are Gold, REITs, real estate, commodities and a well-balanced stock portfolio.
Silas OZOYA, Founder/CEO SUBA Capital
Inflation in many ways affect the general health of a countries economy and her citizens literally and the only way out of inflation is continuous and increased investments in local production, expansion of existing local businesses and enacting fiscal policies that would strengthen the currency of such country.
To mitigate this, increased and persistent investment from all angles in Agriculture, local processing, and increased export would do a positive dent on our inflation rate and keep us far away from recession through job creation, wealth growth, food, and cash crop production at scale.
Nigerian’s home and abroad should consider investments that support economic growth through investments in Agriculture and agro-allied ventures.
Agriculture from my experience is one of the very few sectors that puts food on the table, employs people, and grows the value of your money against inflation all in one value chain.
The general public, high net worth individuals, and Nigerians abroad should consider holding at least 20% of their asset portfolio in Agriculture and agro-allied investments.
Angela Aya, Head, Institutional Sales at Alonati
There are a lot of investment opportunities for both the wealthy and not so rich investors in Nigeria, investors desiring to get an income or return on investment. Some are the FGN Savings Bonds, Stocks, Real Estate, Gold, Cryptocurrency, Agriculture etc. However, below are some investments that offer inflation protection:
Investment in real estate has been profitable and remains lucrative especially in Nigerian urban cities.
This investment however requires medium to high capital. Nigeria is still a developing Country in the world and the need for housing to match the Country’s increasing population size remains critical, as urban-rural migration continues to increase due to the neglect of development of the rural areas by the States and Federal Government.
The value of land and property has continued to rise and will continue to appreciate due to the margin between demand and supply as the need for residential and commercial buildings in major cities remains high.
Investing in gold has remained an agelong golden income space. The value of gold has continued to appreciate over the years because of the importance attached to it all around the world.
Gold remains an important symbol of wealth and affluence, and can be purchased as bars, coins or jewelries and resold at a higher price over time.
A disciplined investor can hedge against inflation risks by investing in the following asset classes that often outperform during high inflationary climates.
- Debo Adejina – Real Estate,
- Darlington-Morsi Onyemaka – real estate, growth stocks, and commodities like food, crude oil, and gold (especially gold).
- Thelma Ugonna Ohiri-Anyanwu, CFA – Gold, REITs, real estate, commodities and a well-balanced stock portfolio.
- Silas OZOYA – Agriculture and agro-allied ventures.
- Angela Aya – Real Estate & Gold.
Retail franchise investment next gold mine for Nigerian investors- CIG
Retail franchise investment curbs unemployment and create buffer for people looking for side hustle
The Choice International Group (CIG) has tasked both unemployed and employed Nigerians to embrace retail franchise investment, as the initiative would curb unemployment in the nation and create buffer for people looking for side hustle.
In line with a recent FBDS Study, there are over 450,000 Nigerian career professionals with minimum investible funds of N1 million, looking out for investment opportunities.
In the majority, these funds are looking for franchise type opportunities for ease of venturing and minimal failure risk.
As far as CIG chairperson, Diana Chen, is concerned, such investor should look no further but consider the group’s retail franchise investment opportunity, which offers Nigerian community mouth-watering offer of owning Gree & Lontor retail stores.
According to him, Gree is the world’s residential air-conditioner manufacturer, while Lontor provides high-quality, energy-saving and convenient rechargeable home appliances and lighting products for global consumers.
He said, “Both brands have been built by the CIG into a world-class electronic retail chain in Nigeria opening no less than 20 brand shops in Lagos and Oyo over the last 18 months.
“The sales performance of its existing stores in the country makes Gree & Lontor one of the most profitable businesses in Nigeria with yields of an average return on investment of 50% and above per annum.
“CIG is offering investors the opportunity to own any of six regional logistics centres, or any number of Gree & Lontor brand shops in viable locations across Nigeria.
“It is the decision of the company to open up these opportunities to the investing public through a Franchise Retail partnership.”
He added that the company has mapped out two investment models it says are simple, transparent, and hassle-free.
“The first model involves only six regional logistics centres located across the geopolitical zones in Nigeria.
“Whoever invests in this will require a capital outlay of $1 million, and become a mega distributor partner of the Gree & Lontor brand, and service a network of brand shops.
“The second investment model involves the Gree & Lontor brand shops – retail franchise stores that require an initial capital outlay of N20 million.
“The investor will secure a store size of 120-150sqm at any choice location, shopping mall, plazas, high streets and even residential neighbourhoods.”
What they are saying
Nigeria is a growth market for franchising and franchise development services.
Gbenga Ajayi, an Entrepreneurship analyst, said, “The retail industry comes second to the food industry among sectors with best franchising opportunities.
“As with other emerging markets, one of the challenges of franchising in Nigeria remains the strengthening of intellectual-property regimes so that franchise companies can transmit knowledge and franchise system concepts with the confidence that such know-how will be protected.
Nairametrics | Company Earnings
Access our Live Feed portal for the latest company earnings as they drop.
- VFD Group set to raise additional capital of N9.01 billion through rights issue and private placement.
- GT Bank records a 9% dip in profit to N45.55 billion in Q1 2021.
- Secure Electronic Technology Plc records a 121% surge in Profit after tax in Q1 2021.
- Lafarge Africa Plc notifies stakeholders of 62nd Annual General Meeting.
- GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announces Annual General Meeting.