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Market Views

Nigerian Stocks record worst quarterly drop since 2009

This could be a sign of what is to happen to the economy this year.

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Nigerian stocks record worst quarterly drop since 2009

A whopping 37% in March 2009 remains the largest quarterly drop the Nigerian Stock Exchange has recorded. It’s a year that will eventually see stocks fall to 33.79%, the worst on record after the 45.7% drop of the disastrous 2007. 

Another type of Tsunami is underway and just like in 2010 it is already wreaking havoc on markets globally and in Nigeria. The Nigerian Stock Market lost over 18.75% in March, partly driven by the crude oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The COVID-19 pandemic has also added to the woes experienced by investors culminating in a quarterly loss of 20.3%, the worst since the forgettable experience in March 10 years ago.  

The losses spared very few stocks. From brewery giant NB Plc to consumer goods giants, Nestle and Unilever and Telco giant MTN, investors lost billions. Banking stocks also felt the brunt. The FUGAZ, acronym for Nigeria’s top 5 banks skids into losses some as high as 40%. The market rout took no prisoners and defied whatever fundamentals some of the most capitalized companies could boast of. Bluechips stocks are now so cheap some are now priced lower than their earnings per share.  

READ MORE: What Warren Buffet will do if he traded Nigerian stocks

Apart from stocks, Nigeria’s Eurobond prices have also fallen drastically in the last month. Bond yields fell to as low as 12% during the month as foreign investors sold down assets in emerging markets including Nigeria. A trader informed Nairametrics that “for now foreign investors just want their money back and have instructed a fire sale of all their assets.” 

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Nigeria’s 2049 Eurobond Yields traded at a yield of 12.81% as prices fell to $72.94. The coupon rate for this loan about 9.2%. The shorter ended 2021, 28th January bond yields sold for $97.29 with a yield of 10.09%. Bond yields are inversely correlated to their underlying prices. The lower the price of a bond the higher the yields. A falling bond price is often associated with higher risk consideration. 

The effect of the sell-offs could also be felt on the exchange rate. Nigeria’s naira first dropped to N380 at the I&E window where foreign investors buy and sell dollars before falling to as low as N390/$1/. This forced the central bank to devalue the naira to N380 for BDC’s. The naira’s one-year forward price, which gives an indication of where the currency could trade in a year’s time, fell about 11.3% against the dollar. The non-deliverable forwards market in London priced the naira at N515 to the dollar in a year’s time while naira futures contracts of the same tenor were quoted at N385.  

READ ALSO: COVID-19: NSE extends time for submission of audited financial statements

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The Nigerian Stock Exchange is often the bellwether for the economy and going by the extent of the losses recorded during the quarter it is nearly inevitable that we will avoid a recession. The effects of the COVID-19 lockdown is likely to get things worse just as oil prices fall below the $20 support level. This suggests we may not have seen the worst just yet.

A further devaluation could occur as the oil price war ratchets up. Nigeria’s inflation rate situation will likely get worse amidst a dwindling purchasing power. As more people struggle, slowly recalibrating their income and spending patterns, businesses will struggle to keep up with sales piling up unsold inventories. Soon, the solid fundamentals recorded in 2019 will disappear instigating a further stock market rout. Borrowers could also start to default on their loans sending non-performing loans back to levels seen in 2016.

This is the worst-case scenario. It could get better but only when oil prices rebound and the Coronavirus is defeated.  

  

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Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

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Market Views

Biggest IPO: World’s biggest Fintech plans to raise $34 billion 

Ant Group has begun the process of a concurrent initial public offering in what could mark one of the biggest IPOs of 2020.

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Biggest IPO: World's biggest Fintech plans to raise $34 billion 

The world’s payment juggernaut, Ant Group, is hoping to raise $34.5 billion in its dual initial public offering (IPO) after setting the price for its shares today, making it the biggest listing of all in modern history, in a report credited to CNBC news.

The Chinese financial powerhouse had earlier disclosed previously that it would divide its stock issuance equally across Chinese major stock exchanges, which include Shanghai and Hong Kong, issuing 1.67 billion new shares at each of those exchanges.

READ: Square buys $50 million worth of Bitcoins

READ: Airtel announces share price today as pre-IPO interest hits $200 million

READ: This report explains why Nigerians are bent on leaving the country

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Ant Group’s Shanghai-listed shares will be quoted at 68.8 yuan each. The issuing of 1.67 billion shares would raise 114.94 billion yuan or $17.23 billion.

  • The Hong Kong-listed shares have been priced at 80 Hong Kong dollars each, raising 133.65 billion Hong Kong dollars or $17.24 billion.
  • The listing would produce a return of at least $34.5 billion, as the figure could go higher if the so-called over-allotment option is exercised, depending on demand.
  • It would make it the largest initial public offer of recent memory, putting it ahead of previous record-holder Saudi Aramco, which raised about $29 billion.

READ: MTN may rake in $600 million from Jumia’s planned listing

READ: Jack Ma’s fintech firm is set for IPO, signalling prospects for Nigerian fintechs

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READ: Gold futures drops to $1727.80 as America, China tension deepens

What you should know

Ant Group, formerly known as Ant Financial and Alipay, is an affiliate company of the popularly known e-commerce company Alibaba.

  • Ant Group remains the world’s most valuable FinTech company, and most valuable unicorn company, with a target valuation of over US$280 billion.
  • The group owns China’s largest digital payment platform, Alipay, which serves over one billion users and 80 million merchants, with total payment volume (TPV) transaction reaching RMB118 trillion in June 2020.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

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Cryptocurrency

Crypto experts reveal their favourite Cryptos 

Nairametrics decided to seek the opinion of crypto experts on what Crypto they would consider investing in.

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Crypto experts reveal their favourite Cryptos 

In the crypto-verse, Nigeria remains one of the fastest-growing and lucrative markets for crypto traders and global investors to be in. 

Data retrieved from a Chainalysis report ranked Nigeria as the eighth (out of 154 countries) in its 2019-2020 global adoption index. Africa’s largest economy is first among other African countries in peer-to-peer payments (moving $139 million in the past year). 

READ: 7 key takeaways from Facebook’s Cryptocurrency, Libra

READ: Crypto deal: Google joins EOS community

The increased usage by many young, educated Nigerians is often attributed to the high bureaucratic processes by many commercial banks for transfers, not forgetting stringent cash control mechanisms set by the Nigerian Central bank in controlling cash flows. Crypto provides low-fee remittances and an alternative way to preserve and grow wealth. 

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Nairametrics decided to seek the opinions of crypto experts on what cryptos they would consider investing in, apart from the known flagship crypto Bitcoin. Their responses were as insightful as they were diverse, ranging from popularly known altcoins to some new ones. 

READ: Harvest: Crypto that gives interest on your Bitcoin

READ: Bitcoin robbers transfer stolen BTCs worth $13.2 million

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Clement Hugbo – Founder and CEO at Crevatal Technologies 

“As volatile and unpredictable as cryptocurrencies are, they are still one of the best investments to get right on and it’s never too late. 

READ: OmiseGO, a small digital coin up, 150% in less than 30 days, as Bitcoin fails to break $10,000

5 Cryptocurrencies I will advise to invest in at this time are: 

  1. Binancecoin, BNB 
  2. Ethereum, ETH
  3. Bundle token (coming soon)
  4. PhoenixDAO, PHNX
  5. Uniswap, UNI.

I chose these tokens because they not only have infrastructures and working products to back their assets, but they play deeply within the DeFi ecosystem which currently is the future of money.  

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READ: Over $500 million dollars worth of Bitcoins withdrawn from BitMEX

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While Binance is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world and has diverse use cases for its token, it recently launched its own Smart chain, bringing DeFi possibilities and flexibilities to more developers and communities. Bundle token will be Africa’s Binance coin as its use cases are diverse, being a partnering project with Binance. PhoenixDAO has diverse products like staking dApps, DAO, events and so much more, with brands using her protocols for products development. 

Ethereum, being the mother of smart contracts and Tokenization, has diverse use cases by devs and communities in the ecosystem.  

READ: Ethereum miners earning more than their Bitcoin rivals

Lastly, Uniswap is the mother of DeFi and decentralization, enabling traders to transact in a permissionless and decentralized platform, completely excluding their parties.  

My choices are based on the consistent use cases of these tokens and their relevance to creating lasting solutions in the Blockchain ecosystem.”

READ: Fastest growing cryptocurrency, Compound (COMP) up over 143% in 24 hours

Henry Muna – Founder & CEO, Muna Wallet 

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“USDN (Neutrino USD) is an algorithmic stablecoin soft-pegged to the US Dollar and collateralized by WAVES. 

The stable exchange rate is maintained using an advanced stability algorithm. 

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USDN offers 10-15% annual percentage returns without the risk of liquidation. 

It leverages the staking reward system of the Waves monetary policy and LPoS consensus algorithm. Staking rewards are distributed according to your contribution to the network with additional USDN.  

READ: Chainlink: Most valuable DeFi crypto is attracting investors again, gains over 8%

Its asset is available on Waves and Ethereum blockchain, with staking services available on MunaWaves.exchangeKucoin, and any Etheruem wallet. 

1 USDN = 1 USD; it lets traders hedge against market volatility. 

USDN staking is governed by a smart contract, not by a central authority. 

Neutrino’s smart contract resilience is verified by Beosin (Chengdu LianAn) Technology Co. Ltd.”

READ: Binance offers DeFi coders $100,000; DeFi market value hits $8 billion

David Effiiong (Davizoe) – National community director at Bitfxt Technology 

Ethereum: It’s a blockchain that allows decentralized applications to be built on. 

Dapps are decentralized applications without censorship which give people freedom. People are building games, and social media platforms on it because of its scalability. 

On ethereum, smart contracts are built also; it acts as the middle man. 

READ: Ethereum whales on the rise, as Ether hits $420

EOS: EOS is a blockchain network that is more scalable and allows Dapps, and smart contracts to be built. The transaction on this blockchain is less than 5 secs, and on Eos.io you can build several blockchains on it. 

The recent mind-blowing announcement is the partnership of Google with EOS; this shows its scalability. 

READ: Crypto: UniSwap gives each owner over $2,000

BitDeFi (BFi): It’s a decentralized finance (DeFi) token that brings the banking system on the blockchain. 

BFi is just 200,000 max supplies and 50% will be burnt because it uses a burning mechanism which makes it a deflationary token. I can boldly say it’s 100k in max supply because of 50% burning away. 

BitDeFi allows you to perform all bank use cases like savings, investment, loan, capital rendering, and many more. 

20,000 of BFi will be available for the next 5 –10yrs and it’s a community token which allows banking to be decentralized.”

READ: Ethereum transaction fees drop by 80%

Charles Okaformbah – Blockchain Solutions Architect 

“Asides Ethereum, from a protocol pov, and value that DAO tokens seem to garner in the long run, I would advise traders to look at Polkadot’s DOT.  

Currently sitting in the top 10 of coinmarketcap, with one of its founders being Gavin Wood (cofounders of Ethereum), it’s a cross-chain protocol that connects several chains together in a single network, allowing them to process transactions in parallel and exchange data between chains with security guarantees.  

READ: Fate of $2.3 billion worth of Bitcoins in Limbo

It’s been in development for years now and the DOT token is majorly used as a governance token. 

Another project from a utility pov would be Kittiefight’s KTY (full disclosure, I’m a team member). Online Betting generates massive tonnes of revenue for its stakeholders.  

What if that revenue is shared with a community of users who participate in the funding of each game’s jackpot via a DeFi backed algorithm? Not only that, KTY serves as a utility token for in-game activities. Currently, Kittiefight is rated 8 in the Top 10 DeFi lending platform by coinmarketcap.” 

 

Bottomline

It’s fair to say that the crypto experts interviewed were not short on selecting different altcoins that serve as alternatives to Bitcoin.  

That said, crypto experts are also taking advantage of altcoins and their prevalence for high price swings. As the old financial saying goes, volatility is king, on the basis that volatility provides a great way to increase one’s holdings and potentially make some good profits. 

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Market Views

GTBank, Dangote Cement keep Bulls roaring high

Market breadth closed positive as NASCON led 20 Gainers as against 6 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session.

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Nigerian stock market ended its last trading session on an impressive note. The All Share Index gained 0.47% to close at 28,697.06 points as against +0.40% appreciation recorded on Thursday.

Nigerian Stock Exchange market capitalization now stands at N14.99 Trillion. Its Year-to-Date (YTD) returns currently stands at +6.91%.

  • However, the Nigerian bourse trading turnover fell short of expectation as volume moved dipped by 9.11% as against -4.67% downtick recorded on Thursday. ACCESS, GUARANTY, and UBA were the most active to boost market turnover.
  • AFRINSURE leads the list of active stocks that recorded an impressive volume spike at the end of today’s session.
  • Market breadth closed positive as NASCON led 20 Gainers as against 6 Losers topped by NNFM at the end of today’s session – an improved performance when compared with the previous outlook.

Top gainers

  1. NASCON up 10.00% to close at N14.3
  2. PZ up 7.32% to close at N4.4
  3. ZENITHBANK up 1.69% to close at N21
  4. GUARANTY up 1.50% to close at N30.45
  5. DANGCEM up 0.67% to close at N151

Top losers

  1. NNFM down 9.89% to close at N4.19
  2. NPFMCRFBK down 4.29% to close at N1.34
  3. HONYFLOUR down 4.21% to close at N0.91
  4. UNIONDAC down 3.70% to close at N0.26
  5. VITAFOAM down 3.23% to close at N6

Outlook

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Nigerian bourse continued its bullish run amid a shutdown of economic activities at Nigeria’s economic nerve center Lagos and Rivers amid ongoing curfew put in place in order to calm hostilities prevalent in some areas.

  • Bulls seem to be rallying high amid soaring crude oil prices, and high buying pressure noticed in some Nigerian blue-chip stocks like Dangote Cement and GTBank.
  • However, Nairametrics expects you to seek the advice of a certified stockbroker when choosing stocks to buy, as some of these stocks exhibit cyclic returns in principle.

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