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Foreign investors shun CBN as latest OMO bills record zero bids

Foreign investors stayed away from the Central Bank’s latest OMO Auction which held on the 19th of March 2020.

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Decline in oil price has affected Nigeria’s financial capacity, CBN

Foreign investors stayed away from the Central Bank’s latest OMO Auction which held on the 19th of March 2020. According to the data seen by Nairametrics Research, there were zero bids for each of the OMO bills slated for sale by the CBN.

The Central Bank had about N140 billion on offer via the restricted Open Market Operations divided into N10 billion for 89-day and 180-day bills respectively and another N130 billion for a 362-day bill. The 362-day bill was offered at a range of bid of between 17% to 18.25%.

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OMO Bills Flux – The CBN has over the last two years relied on selling OMO Bills to foreign and local portfolio investors at very high rates using it as a pseudo sterilizer of the naira and attracting the much needed foreign currency brought into the country by foreign portfolio investors. Since then OMO Bills have ballooned to an N18 trillion market until the CBN said it has had enough late 2019.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics also shows inflow into money market instruments grew from $3.2 billion and $8.4 billion in 2017 and 2019 respectively to a whopping $13.4 billion in 2019.

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READ ALSO: FDC forecasts February inflation to rise to 12.30%

The bank banned everyone except foreign investors and banks from accessing the OMO market all in a bid to push drive funds away from risk-free CBN securities to more risky assets that it believed had a more positive effect on the economy. The move left asset managers with trillions of naira hanging in the dry pushing them to the treasury bills market as they searched for alternative risk-free investments.

Since the ban, foreign portfolio inflow into money markets fell from $3.5 billion in the second quarter of 2019 to $2.5 billion and $1.4 billion in the third and fourth quarter of 2019. It was $5.8 billion in the first quarter of 2019.

The latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that Nigeria’s 364-day treasury bills have fallen to 4.6%. While the 90-day treasury bills current stop rate sold for 2.3%, the 182- day treasury bills sold for 3.4%.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest consumer price index revealed Nigeria’s inflation rate was 12.2%, the highest in years. At 12.2% inflation rate Nigeria’s inflation-adjusted real return for the 90-day treasury bills is about -11.9%.

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READ ALSO: Nigerian Treasury Bills real interest rate falls to -12%

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Global Markets free-fall: However, it appears the global market sell-offs have left foreign investors with no choice but to exit emerging markets drying up any future security sale. Nigeria’s Eurobond yields are now selling for as high as 13.4% for the bond maturing 2025 due to widespread drop in bond prices. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with yield. If a bond prices go down the yield goes up and vice versa.

Effect on Forex: With the CBN recording a no show, it is likely that it will further hurt its ability or option to rely on OMO sales to foreign investors to maintain a robust foreign exchange reserve.

Nairametrics Research team tracks, collates, maintains and manages a rich database of macro-economic and micro-economic data from Nigeria and Africa. Our analysts share some of the data collated on Nairametrics, using formats such as docs, tables and charts etc. The team also publishes research based analysis as articles on a regular basis.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Abdul Adeniji

    March 20, 2020 at 2:31 pm

    I am not adept in finance. My observation is
    that the rate of inflation is too far away from the rate paid on TBs, that is a misnomer. Now that the foreign investors are drying up , I hope the CBN Will give consideration to local investors.

  2. Ochiabuto emeka

    March 20, 2020 at 4:09 pm

    Most times the policy makers think on their purpose rather than on the economy. How will you expect another countries national (Nigerian nationals in diaspora inclusive) to invest in what you banned your domestic nationals from investing in.

    Most times policy is not about quantitative analysis or qualitative analysis, is just a matter of “common sense”

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Business News

CBN’s MPC unlikely to cut rates, as Nigeria’s foreign reserves hit $36.16 billion

Note that Nigeria’s inflation could potentially rise to 14% by the end of the year due to a higher VAT and a weakened naira.

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CBN, GTBank, CBN disagrees with IMF, says land border closure boosting local production, Border closure: Emefiele says Benin, others must engage Nigeria before borders are reopened , bvn 2.0, CBN reveals banks’ foreign assets rise to N14.19 trillion in 2019

The CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to leave the interest rate of 13.5% unchanged during its meeting later today.

The projection is coming on the heels of macroeconomic fundamentals released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which showed that inflation rose to 12.34%; its seventh consecutive monthly rise and highest level since April 2018.

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Note that Nigeria’s inflation could potentially rise to 14% by the end of the year due to a higher VAT and a weakened naira. Therefore, in order to minimise the risk of exacerbating inflationary pressures, the CBN is unlikely to further cut rates. This possible outcome from the MPC meeting will help stimulate economic growth, just like it did in 2019.

Meanwhile, despite the foreign exchange liquidity crisis being experienced in the currency spot market, data obtained from CBN revealed that the country’s foreign exchange reserves have further increased to $36.16 billion (Gross Estimate) as of 28th of May, 2020.

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(READ MORE: Naira depreciates to N460/$1 at the parallel market, despite improved liquidity)

The surge in Nigeria’s external reserves is due to the fact that the price of crude had gained more than 40% since the deadly COVID-19 pandemic started, coupled with reports that foreign investors are returning to Nigeria. The disbursement of $3.4 billion emergency facility by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to CBN has also been a contributing factor.

Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves hit $36.16 billion, Nigeria’s Central Bank MPC meet today

Recall that the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, had promised more liquidity in the currency market, assuring that all genuine dollar demands would be met.

READ ALSO: Banking: Surprise hike in CRR-Implications for banks 

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However, an Interest rate expert, Ola Oladele, during a phone chat with Nairametrics, advised that the CBN should keep its word by boosting Nigeria’s Forex supply as the persistent downtrend in the currency black market continues. She said:

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“The depreciation of the naira in the parallel market as a result of low supply of FX from official sources and less optimistic outlook on the economy due to falling oil prices.

“The BDCs haven’t received supply from official sources since our borders were closed and the crash in oil prices has made natural sellers of FX more cautious.

“We hope that the recent statements by the regulator will restore confidence and subsequently, supply to the market.”

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Companies

CFOs of FUGAZ and their 3-year performance record

CFO is to ensure that the company is highly profitable so that no matter how high it’s share price might be, if listed on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it would still be termed undervalued.

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Among many executive positions in an organisation, the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) is sometimes considered to be one of the most strategic, and rightly so. When the firm in question is an operator in the financial services sector, then the office becomes even more critical to be thrown to just anyone.

Besides being responsible for fiscal operating results, the CFO is the senior executive directly responsible for managing the financial strategy, decision and actions of a company. He tracks cash flow, analyses the company’s financial strengths and weaknesses, and fill in for the lapses, reducing operations costs and increasing income.

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In other words, we can say that the job of the CFO is to ensure that the company is highly profitable so that no matter how high it’s share price might be, if listed on the floor of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, it would still be termed undervalued.

This article looks at the CFOs in Nigeria’s tier one banks, their profiles, their last 3 years records and projections for 2020.

READ ALSO: Billionaire investors in the Nigerian Insurance space (2)

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Ugo Nwaghodoh, Group CFO, United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA)

Ugo is a seasoned financial analyst and accountant with experience spanning assurance, advisory, financial control, financial modelling & programming, strategy and business transformation, investor relations, corporate restructuring, risk management, mergers & acquisition, business integration and project management.

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He has been the Group CFO at United Bank for Africa Plc since 2011, managing the performance, financial control, portfolio investment and investor relations among others.  Before then he was the Divisional Head, Financial Control and Investor Relations between 2008 and 2011.

He also had a brief stint as Group Chief Compliance Officer, and as Head of Special Project (Corporate Mergers). He was Head, Performance Management, Strategy and Business Transformation for about 3 years, where he drove the cost optimization initiatives of the bank, and engaged in policy formulation.

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Before UBA, he had worked as Manager, Assurance and Business Advisory Services with PriceWaterhouseCoopers Nigeria for 8 years, and 2 years in Kenya on secondment.

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He has a degree in Accounting and Finance, and MSc in Finance & Management from the Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield University.

He is a fellow, Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (FCA).

His last 3 years performance

UBA, under Nwaghodoh’s watch, had a fairly unfavourable 2018 as cost to income ratio increased from 57.8% in 2017 to 64% in 2018, and profit after tax almost remained the same increasing only slightly from N78.59 billion in 2017 to N78.60 billion in 2018.

The bank, however, staged a comeback in 2019 with cost to income ratio reduced to 62.7% while profit after tax increased by over N10 billion to N89.08 billion.

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Share price however declined from N10.3 in 2017 to N7.7 in 2018 and N7.15 in 2019, probably not Nwaghodoh’s fault though, since this happened across most financial services institutions. In addition, the bank also paid N30 million as fine to the CBN in 2018, a situation which led shareholders to cry out to Apex bank for what was termed ‘unfair penalties’.

Nwaghodoh, however, has a beautifully designed investor relations page to his credit, with answers to Investors FAQs, analysts reports and credit ratings for the bank, shareholders information and news among others.

Oluseyi Kumapayi, CFO Access Bank Plc

Kumapayi joined Access Bank in 2002. Before then, he was with the First City Monument Bank (FCMB) where he served as Financial officer.

Kumapayi got his MBA from the Kellogg school of management, Northwestern University, and  has been severally endorsed in Corporate finance, risk management and business strategy, financial analysis, mergers and acquisitions, financial modelling and investment banking.

He also attended the INSEAD course on Risk Management, London Business School (LBS) High Performance People Skills program, Euromoney, Assets and Liability Management, Strategy Master Class and Mergers and Acquisition. He is a Certified Chartered Accountant.

Now let’s look at the bank’s three years performance under Kumapayi. 

For the cost to income ratio, Access bank has remained profitable over the last three years, but now the question would be how profitable?

Cost to income ratio reduced from 72.40% in 2017 to 65.30% in 2018 showing that the bank’s strategies succeeded in reducing the ratio of cost to income and making more profits. However, 2019 recorded a negative progression to 68.7%.

This is in spite of the fact that profit after tax grew significantly to N97.5 billion in 2019, from N94.98 billion in 2018 and N53.6billion in 2017.

Overall, we can say the indices point to greater progress made in 2018, compared to 2019.

Note also that the merger between Access Bank and Diamond bank started in 2018, running through 2019 before it was eventually sealed with the launching of the new Access logo, and the slogan ‘access more’. The role of a CFO in a merger of this magnitude is ourightly priceless, given that not all merger talks result in a successful merger of assets, shareholders, and even management team.

There is also the acquistion of controlling equity interest in Transnational Bank Kenya Plc, which Access Bank undertook in October 2019.

Share price at last day of the year progressed from N10.45 to N6.8 to N10, showing that share price dropped most in 2018, which interestingly happened to be the most profitable year so far. In the same 2018, Access bank paid N20 million in fines to the Central Bank of Nigeria.

Kumapayi has kept the investor relations page of the bank’s website duly updated with annual financial reports, investor news, credit ratings, upcoming events, shareholders information and news.

 

Oyewale Ariyibi, CFO, First bank of Nigeria Plc

Oyewale Ariyibi, CFO, FBN Holdings

Before becoming Chief Financial Officer at FBN Holdings Plc, Oyewale Ariyibi had worked with Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc (Transcorp) as Chief Finance Officer, and at Standard Chartered Bank, Nigeria as Country Financial Controller.

He has a cumulative 23 years experience in banking and financial services, business assurance, tax management, business process review and consulting across several institutions.

He has been certified in areas such as capital raising, tax planning and cost management, operational risk management, strategic and corporate planning, compliance and business assurance amongst others, and is a Fellow of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (FCA), Associate of the Chartered Institute of Taxation (ACIT) and Certified Pension Institute of Nigeria (ACIP).

So what has he done with First Bank in the last three years?

Profit after tax has been on an increase, from N47.78 billion in 2017 to N59.74 billion in 2018 and N62.09 billion in 2019. This is laudable given that 2016/17 was not the best times for the Nigerian economy.

Share price has however dropped from N8.8 in 2017 to N7.95 in 2018 and N6.15 in 2019.

This may be no fault of his given that he has managed to keep the cost to income ratio stable at 80.17% in 2017, 80.15% in 2018, but it increased slightly in 2019 to 81.31%.

Note that the FBN Holdings also paid a fine of N32.65 million to the CBN in 2018.

This trend can be considered worrisome not only because FBN holdings has the highest cost to income ratio among the tier one banks, but because it is the only of the five banks where cost to income ratio did not reduce over the last 3 years.

This probably explains why shareholders earned 0.25 dividends per share in 2017, 0.26 in 2018 and 0.38 in 2019, the least dividends declared by any of the top banks.

The investors’ relations page of the bank’s site is a bit unclear and it is not easy to access needed information, but once a site visitor gets past the initial confusion, one can see shareholders information, corporate governance reports, financial highlights, unclaimed dividends, press releases and news.

Ariyibi might need to ask some pointers from his colleagues in other tier one banks.

Recently, Ariyibi led engagements with regulators towards FBN’s intention to divest its 65% holdings in FBN insurance Limited.

 

Mukhtar Adam, CFO Zenith Bank Plc.

Mukhtar Adam was appointed Chief Financial Officer (CFO) of Zenith Bank in 2018, and is currently the Group Head, Financial Control and Strategic Planning Group of the bank.

Before this, he was the bank’s Deputy CFO, and sometime before 2014, he headed the Financial Reporting, Tax Management and Strategic Planning Groups, overseeing the entire Zenith Group’s financial reporting.

Adams worked in Financial Services Group of the Nigerian and Ghanaian practices of PricewaterhouseCoopers (now PwC), as a Senior Consultant, before joining Zenith Bank in 2007.

Adam holds a PhD in Finance from the Leeds Beckett University (UK); M.Sc. (Finance – Financial Sector Management) from University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, (UK); MBA (Finance) from the University of Leicester (UK) and B.Ed. Social Sciences (Economics and Management) from the University of Cape Coast (Ghana).

Many feathers for one man’s cap, we must agree!

He also holds a Diploma in International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW).

He is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN), Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), and Institute of Chartered Accountants of Ghana (ICAG).

So, what has Mukhtar Adam achieved for Zenith bank since he took over from Stanley Amuchie in 2018?

It’s been three progressive years for this tier one bank as cost to income ratio has continued to decline from 52.70 in 2017, to 49.30 in 2018 and further down to 48.8% in 2019. Commendably, this progression is not just a result of cutting down operation costs, but increasing income.

Profit after tax for 2017 stood at N173.79 billion and increased to N193.42 billion in 2018 and spiked further to N208.84 billion in 2019.

Whatever magic wand Adams holds over the bank, it must be working well because among the five tier one banks, Zenith bank has consistently had the highest profit after tax for the past three years.

Share price of the bank also moved from N25.6 in 2017 to N23.05 in 2018 and further down to N18.6 as at last day of 2019.

However, this cannot be counted against him as share price is subject to a whole range of extraneous factors. In the 2018, the bank paid N10 million fine to the CBN.

With his input, the bank also maintains a detailed investors relations page with press releases, credit ratings, corporate governance reports and financial updates. In addition to the BOT which pops up to help guide a visitor through the page and answer inquiries, Adams also appears to be one CFO who spells out his key financial strategies on all aspects of the banks operations, on the investors relations page.

Adebanji Adeniyi, CFO, GT Bank

Adeniyi became CFO of GT bank in 2013.

Adeniyi has been certified competent in risk management, portfolio management, risks and investments, Operational dynamics and Associated Risks among others, and has over two decades of professional experience.

He gained his early experience from notable companies including PricewaterhouseCoopers, and Arthur Andersen (now KPMG).

Adebanji Adeniyi, Chief Financial Officer, GT Bank

His banking experience comes from his stint with Lead Bank Plc, and his years at GT Bank. He is a Fellow of Institute of Chartered Accountants (FCA), and also holds a MBA.

So, what has he been up to in the last 3 years.

For Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, cost to income ratio reduced from 38.2% in 2017, to 37.2% in 2018, and to 36.1% in 2019

In addition to its gradual improvement, GT bank has maintained the best cost to income ratio among the top banks.

The bank has also maintained a high profit after tax after Zenith bank. GT Bank recorded N170.47 billion profits after tax in 2017 and this increased to N184.64 billion in 2018 and N196.86 billion in 2019.

Like other banks, however, share price has dropped over the years – from N40.75 in 2017 to N34.45 in 2018 and N29.7 in 2019. In addition to this, GT Bank also received a heavy penalty of N24 million in 2018 from the CBN.

In terms of profitability, both for the bank and for investors, Adeniyi is getting it right.

The bank also has a well laid out investors relations page detailing corporate and financial information, outlooks and insights, upcoming events and investors news, shareholders information and annual reports.

Kudos!

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Coronavirus

Covid-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 27th of May 2020, 389 new confirmed cases and 5 deaths were recorded in Nigeria bringing the total confirmed cases recorded in the country to 8,733.

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COVID-19: FCMB reschedule operations

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to rise as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 8,733 confirmed cases.

On the 27th of May 2020, 389 new confirmed cases and 5 deaths were recorded in Nigeria.

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To date, 8733 cases have been confirmed, 2501 cases have been discharged and 254 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory having carried out 48,544 tests.

Covid-19 Case Updates- May 27th 2020

  • Total Number of Cases – 8,733
  • Total Number Discharged – 2,501
  • Total Deaths – 254
  • Total Tests Carried out – 48,544

The 389 new cases were reported from 22 states- Lagos (256), Katsina (23), Edo (22), Rivers (14), Kano(13), Adamawa (11), Akwa Ibom (11), Kaduna(7), Kwara (6), Nasarawa (6), Gombe (2), Plateau (2), Abia (2), Delta (2), Benue (2), Niger (2), Kogi (2), Oyo (2), Imo (1), Borno (1), Ogun (1), Anambra (1).

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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The latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 4012, followed by Kano (936), Abuja at 519, Katsina (358), Borno (257), Oyo (252), Ogun (242), Jigawa (241), Edo (240), Bauchi (233), Kaduna (215),  Rivers (171), Gombe (152), Sokoto (116), Plateau (97).

Kwara State has recorded 85 cases, Zamfara (76), Nasarawa (62), Delta (51), Yobe (47), Osun (44), Adamawa (38), Ebonyi (36), Akwa Ibom (35), Imo (34), Kebbi (32), Niger (30), Ondo (24), Ekiti (20), Taraba and Enugu (18), Bayelsa (12), Anambra (11), Abia (10), Benue (7), while Kogi state has recorded 2 cases.

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

 

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READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

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DateConfirmed caseNew casesTotal deathsNew deathsTotal recoveryActive casesCritical cases
May 27, 202087333892545250159787
May 26, 2020834427624916238557107
May 25, 202080682292337231155247
May 24, 202078393132265226353607
May 23, 202075262652210217451317
May 22, 2020726124522110200750337
May 21, 2020701633921111190748987
May 20, 202066772842008184046377
May 19, 202064012261921173444757
May 18, 202061752161919164443407
May 17, 202059593881826159441837
May 16, 202056211761765147239737
May 15, 202054452881713132039544
May 14, 202051621931683118038154
May 13, 202049711841646107037374
May 12, 20204787146158695936704
May 11, 202046412421521090235894
May 10, 202043992481421777834794
May 9, 202041512391271174532784
May 8, 202039123861181067931154
May 7, 20203526381108460128184
May 6, 20203145195104553425071
May 5, 2020295014899548123704
May 4, 2020280224594641722912
May 3, 2020255817088240020702
May 2, 20202388220861735119522
May 1, 20202170238691035117512
April 30, 2020193220459731715562
April 29, 2020172819652730713692
April 28, 2020153219545425512322
April 27, 20201337644102559942
April 26, 20201273914152399942
April 25, 20201182873632229252
April 24, 202010951143312088552
April 23, 20209811083231977532
April 22, 2020873912931976482
April 21, 20207821172631975602
April 20, 2020665382311884662
April 19, 2020627862221704362
April 18, 2020541482021663562
April 17, 2020493511841593172
April 16, 2020442351311522772
April 15, 2020407341211282672
April 14, 202037330111992632
April 13, 202034320100912422
April 12, 20203235100852282
April 11, 202031813103702382
April 10, 20203051770582402
April 9, 20202881471512302
April 8, 20202742260442262
April 7, 20202541661442042
April 6, 2020238650351982
April 5, 20202321851331942
April 4, 2020214540251850
April 3, 20202092542251800
April 2, 20201841020201620
April 1, 2020174352091630
March 31, 202013982091280
March 30, 2020131202181210
March 29, 2020111221031070
March 28, 20208919103850
March 27, 2020705103660
March 26, 20206514102620
March 25, 2020517102480
March 24, 2020444102410
March 23, 20204010112370
March 22, 2020308002280
March 21, 20202210001210
March 20, 2020124001110
March 19, 20208000170
March 18, 20208500170
March 17, 20203100030
March 16, 20202000020
March 15, 20202000020
March 14, 20202000020
March 13, 20202000020
March 12, 20202000020
March 11, 20202000020
March 10, 20202000020
March 9, 20202100020
March 8, 20201000010
March 7, 20201000010
March 6, 20201000010
March 5, 20201000010
March 4, 20201000010
March 3, 20201000010
March 2, 20201000010
March 1, 20201000010
February 29, 20201000010
February 28, 20201100010

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