Connect with us
SSN
Advertisement
IZIKJON
Advertisement
forex
Advertisement
Stanbic IBTC
Advertisement
Binance
Advertisement
Esetech
Advertisement
Patricia
Advertisement
Fidelity ads
Advertisement
app

Macro-Economic News

UPDATED: Nigerian economy grows by 2.27% in 2019, post highest quarterly growth since 2016 recession

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.55% in real terms, in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019, up from 2.38%.

Published

on

NDDC, Cash transfer, President Buhari, non-oil Exports, oil revenue, export revenue, FG Waives import duties for medical supplies, Orders Customs to expedite clearing, Presidency faults report on Kyari as Buhari didn’t cancel memos, appointments approved by him

Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.55% in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2019, up from 2.38% growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018. This means there was a 0.17% point increase in the growth of the Nigerian economy (year-on-year).

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the growth recorded in Q4 2019 represents the highest quarterly growth performance since the 2016 recession.

FG battles 6 oil firms for failure to remit N20 trillion , ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron delay $58.4 billion oil and gas investment in Nigeria, Crude Oil: Nigeria’s oil production slips for the third consecutive month , Tax reform, policy uncertainty to cause oil drop as foreign firms look outside Nigeria 

Meanwhile, the Nigerian economy in 2019 grew by 2.27% in real terms, standing at N19.53 trillion compared to N19.28 trillion recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

Growth overview

The real growth of the oil sector in Q4 2019 was 6.36% (year-on-year), indicating an increase of 7.98% points compared to the negative growth of 1.62% recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.

  • The report showed that the non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in real terms in the fourth quarter. 0.44% points lower than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the Q3 growth rate.
  • The Nigerian economy grew by 2.27% annually compared to 1.91% in 2018 with a quarter on quarter growth of 5.59%.

The Oil Sector

Oil sector GDP grew by 6.36% in Q4 2019, 0.13% point decrease compared to 6.49% recorded in Q3 2019 and 7.98% points increase compared to -1.62% in Q4 2018.

  • In terms of contribution, the oil sector contributed 7.32% to the total real GDP in Q4 2019, up from 7.06% recorded in the corresponding quarter.
  • Meanwhile, the sector’s contribution to GDP went down when compared to 9.77% recorded in the third quarter of 2019.
  • It should be noted that in the fourth quarter of 2019, the average daily oil production was 2.00 million barrels per day (mbpd) which was 0.09mbpd increase compared to the daily average production of 1.91mbpd recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2018.
  • However, it was 0.04mbpd lower than the production volume of 2.04mbpd recorded in the third quarter of 2019.

The Non-Oil Sector

In real terms, the non-oil sector grew by 2.26% in the fourth quarter of 2019, which was 0.44% points lower than the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2018 but 0.42% point higher than the third quarter of 2019.

  • This sector during the fourth quarter of 2019, was driven mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications), Agriculture (Crop Production), Financial and Insurance Services (Financial Institutions), and Manufacturing.
  • In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 92.68% to the nation’s GDP in the fourth quarter of 2019, lower from shares recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 (92.94%) but higher than the third quarter of 2019 (90.23%).
  • The annual contribution of the non-Oil sector stood at 91.22% in 2019, 0.19% point reduction compared to 91.41% recorded in 2018.

Key sectors’ performance

The agricultural sector in real terms grew by 2.31% (year-on-year) in Q4 2019, a decrease of 0.14% points from the corresponding quarter of 2018 but an increase of 0.03% points from the preceding quarter.

In terms of contribution, the sector accounted for 26.09% of real GDP in Q4 2019, a marginal reduction of 0.06% point compared to Q4 2018 and 3.16% points decline compared to 29.25% recorded in the preceding quarter.

Majorly, four sub-activities make up the Agricultural sector: Crop production, Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing.

The manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter of 2019 was 1.24% (year-on-year) in real terms, lower than Q4 2018 but higher than the preceding quarter by 1.11% points and 0.14% points respectively.

Contribution of the manufacturing sector to real GDP in Q4 2019 was 8.74%, 0.12% point lower than the 8.86% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2018 but maintained a steady 8.74% contribution as recorded in Q3 2019.

bitcoin train

The full-year 2019 real contribution of the manufacturing sector was 9.06% against 9.2% recorded in 2018.

Binance

The service sector grew by 2.6% in Q4 2019, higher than 1.87% recorded in Q3 2019 and 0.3% point lower than 2.9% recorded in Q4 2018. The sector’s contribution to real GDP increased from 48.59% recorded in Q3 2019 to 53.64% in Q4 2019.

CBN sets up committee to recover N36 billion credit facility 

Jaiz bank ads

The key takeaways

GDP is Nigeria’s biggest economic data and it measures the monetary value of everything produced in the country. It depicts the nation’s total economic activity. A decline in GDP means major economic activities are slow or sluggish, which may be a result of several factors.

  • The latest GDP figures show that the Nigerian economy grew quarterly by 2.55%, being the highest post-recession growth while the annual growth was 2.27%.
  • The agricultural sector, which was expected to grow due to the continued land border closure and increased agricultural practices in the country, grew only marginally by 2.31% compared to 2.28% recorded in its preceding quarter and a decline compared to 2.46% recorded in its corresponding quarter of 2018.
  • In general, the agricultural sector grew by 2.36% annually in 2019 compared to 2.12% in 2018.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Macro-Economic News

Transport fare watch: Motorcycle “Okada” commuters paid less in January 2021

Commuters on motorcycle per drop (Okada) paid less in January 2021 than they did in December 2020.

Published

on

Transport fare for motorcycle "Okada" more than doubled in 2020, Lagos State bans Gokada, ORide, MaxNG, others from 15 local governments 

The average fare paid by commuters for journey by motorcycle per drop decreased by 11.60% month-on-month and increased by 95.22% year-on-year to N259.33 in January 2021 from N293.36 in December 2020, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report for the month of January 2021.

According to the report, commuters in  Taraba (N400.80), Yobe (N400.15) and Rivers (N400.00) paid the highest journey fare by motorcycle per drop while commuters in Adamawa (N84.22), Katsina (N134.90) and Kebbi (N152.05) paid the lowest journey fare by motorcycle per drop.

READ: Transport Fare: Motorcycle “Okada” commuters paid more in November

Other key highlights

  • The average fare paid by commuters for bus journey intercity decreased by 0.25% month-on-month and increased by 39.55% year-on-year to N2,346.41 in January 2021 from N2,352.19 in December 2020.
  • Commuters in Abuja FCT (N4,482.24), Lagos (N3,300.23) and Sokoto (N3,300.00) paid the highest bus journey fare intercity while commuters in Bayelsa (N1,600.45), Bauchi (N1,640.20) and Enugu (N1,687.45) paid the lowest bus journey fare within city.
  • The average fare paid by commuters for bus journey within the city decreased by 0.66% month-on-month and increased by 74.75% year-on-year to N352.15 in January 2021 from N354.49 in December 2020.
  • Commuters in Zamfara (N600.00), Bauchi (N522.75) and Ekiti (N458.77) paid the highest bus journey fare within city while commuters in Oyo (N189.46), Abia (N205.22) and Borno (N240.79) paid the lowest bus journey fare within city.
  • The average fare paid by air passengers for specified routes single journey increased by 0.02% month-on-month and by 18.27% year-on-year to N36,463.65 in January 2021 from N36,454.59 in December 2020.
  • Passengers in Anambra (N38,600.00), Cross River/Jigawa/Lagos (N38,500.00), Bauchi (N38,400.00) paid the highest airfare while States with lowest airfare were Akwa Ibom (N32,450.00), Sokoto (N33,700.00), and Gombe (N35,000.00).
  • The average fare paid by passengers for water way passenger transport increased by 3.68% month-on-month and by 38.58% year-on-year to N786.19 in January 2021 from N758.27 in December 2020.
  • Passengers in Rivers (N2,280.00), Delta (N2,250.45) and Bayelsa (N2,200.10) paid the highest fare by water while states with lowest fare by waterway passenger transport were Borno (N245.10), Gombe (N290.77) and Kebbi (N340.00).

READ: Transport fare for motorcycle “Okada” more than doubled in 2020

Why this matters

Transportation cost takes a huge portion of budget for most lower/middle-class Nigerians and as well takes not less than 20% of their take-home pay packages.

The drop in fares paid by the commuters on motorcycle per drop (Okada) is a welcome development.

Transport by motorcycle (Okada) has been popularly adopted in most cities by businessmen, government workers, and students to overcome traffic congestion, and for the advantage that it can navigate roads that are inaccessible to automobiles and buses, particularly in villages and urban slums.

Continue Reading

Macro-Economic News

The moment Emefiele predicted Nigeria will be out of recession in Q4 2020

The CBN Governor had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in Q4 of 2020.

Published

on

parallel market, Covid-19: N3.5 trillion disbursed as stimulus package for the Nigerian economy, CBN Vs NESG: Waving the white flag for the benefit of Nigerians, Exchange Rate Unification: CBN devalues official rate to N380/$1, Nigerian banks have written off N1.9 trillion impaired loans in past 4 years, CBN sandbox operations, Stirling Trust Company Limited, Key highlights of the October 2020 Business Expectations Survey Report, A Total of N3.5 trillion was disbursed in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to several other interventions to reflate the economy - CBN, BOFIA 2020: Steps forward or backwards for Nigerian banks, Total credit to the economy rose to N19.54trillion – CBN Governor

It is no longer news that Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, against all expectations exited recession as its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.11% in the last quarter of 2020 (year on year).

However, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele, had expressed optimism last year that the country was going to come out of recession in the fourth quarter of 2020.

According to the report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), this is the first positive quarterly growth in the last 3 quarters following growth in telecommunications and agriculture which seem to make up for the sharp drop in oil prices and production.

The surprising rebound of the Nigerian economy is coming against the prediction of the country’s Minister for Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, who while speaking at the 26th Nigerian Economic Summit, said that Nigeria is expected to exit recession by the first quarter of 2021.

The CBN Governor had during the November 2020 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, predicted that the country was going to come out of recession by the fourth quarter of 2020.

This as he said that many analysts expressed doubts about that and were waiting to prove him wrong.

In a video during a press conference as seen by Nairametrics, Emefiele said, “You said that in November MPC, I was cautiously optimistic that fourth-quarter GDP will be positive thereby taking Nigeria out of a recession that I was aggressively optimistic that during the first quarter, we will exit recession. I am praying very seriously that my prayer should be heard because I know that people are waiting to put my neck on the chopping board to say that I do not know my work.’’

What you should know

  • Despite Nigeria’s surprise exit from recession, experts have still expressed their reservations about the country’s weak economy which is faced with several challenges for businesses ranging from foreign exchange pressure, high unemployment level, increasing consumer prices, serious security challenges, weak investor confidence, etc.
  • This is as the growth in GDP was primarily driven by the Information and Communication sector and the Agricultural sector.
  • However, the surprise rebound of the economy means that Nigeria may recover faster than expected as crude oil prices and production increase this year.
  • This also shows that the country needs to redouble its efforts in the growth of the non-oil sector which contributed 94.13% to Nigeria’s GDP.

Continue Reading



Advertisement





Nairametrics | Company Earnings