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Nigerian economy’s 40% exposure to foreign credit is dangerous- CBN

The CBN has warned that Nigeria’s economy is at risk due to the foreign credits which account for 40% of the total credit in the country’s economy.

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The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has warned that the 40% exposure of the nation’s economy to foreign credits portend danger.

The apex bank warned that the withdrawal of such funds could cripple Nigeria’s economy and lead to high rate of poverty.

Deputy Director, Financial Policy and Regulation Department, CBN, Hassan Mahmoud, explained that the level of concentration of credits in the hands of foreign partners weakens the economy.

He said, “A drop in the activities of the capital market by the foreign firms would be devastating to the economy as the market is largely dominated by international firms.”

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CBN building

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Mahmoud said the volume of foreign portfolio investments in the money market was over $20 billion.

Mahmoud disclosed this during a workshop for business editors and correspondents organised by the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) on Tuesday in Yola, Adamawa State.

In his address, Mahmoud stated that, “Of the total activities in the capital market, 40 per cent of them are from foreign holdings. Even in our money market too, substantial part of the foreign portfolio investments accounts for over $20billion.

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“Over 40% of total credits in the economy are in forex. So, anything that happens to the domestic economy will make this huge funds to go out; and when they are about to go out, it will be very devastating for the economy, given our level of external reserve, tools we have to manage exchange rates, and given the sensitivity of that exchange rate market.

“We see in some advanced economies a zero inflation rate. However, for some economies in the Europe area, we see inflation picking up. Even though we are getting out of import dependence, a substantial part of our input or raw materials is still imported. Those hikes in prices are going to feed into our domestic prices.

“Also, a lot of Nigerian corporate bodies, including government have borrowed from the international markets. Our total borrowings now are over $10 billion; so we have huge exposure to international stock markets, and any developments in those markets will impact whatever value of investments and expectations that we have in those economies,” Mahmoud was quoted in a report by The Nation.

[READ MORE: Nigerian economy to grow by 2.38% in Q4 – CBN]

Nigeria’s economy still struggling: Nigeria’s economy is still struggling despite the growth it recorded recently. Mahmoud said the country had not recovered strongly after the financial crisis which started about a decade ago.

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He said, “The GDP as of today from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is 2.28 per cent. However, if you look at the pre-financial crisis period, it was about 6 to 7 per cent. Since the financial crisis started about a decade ago, we have not even added 200 basis points to our GDP growth. This is of great concern.

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“China was doing 10%, and has moved 70 to 8% in less than 10 years. Other emerging economies have surpassed their pre-crisis growth rate.

“However, if we are looking at the minus 1.9 per cent that we did in 2015 and 2016, and the 2.28 per cent growth rate in the third quarter of 2019, you will see that we have moved substantially because it is more difficult to come out of recession than to sustain a positive growth rate.

“It is projected by the CBN that by the fourth quarter of 2019, we are going to be doing 2.38%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is projecting close to 2.31%. However, the government is actually projecting 3.1% in the National Planning, given expectations from their Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) initiative.”

[READ ALSO: CBN to increase LDR to 70%)

CBN warns high foreign credits could collapse Nigeria’s economy, predicts high poverty 

Poverty level will increase: According to Mahmoud, despite the increase in the contribution of oil sector to the GDP, the number of Nigerians that would fall into poverty would increase due to the failure of the agricultural sector to produce the expected output. He stated this on the basis of the number of Nigerians engaging in agriculture.

“Non-oil contribution to GDP is declining, even as oil sector contributed more to GDP growth. However, the concern is because of the volatility in the oil sector (if it is the driver of our economy), any shortfall from it will significantly distort our projections.

“However, the oil sector is still contributing less than 10 per cent to the GDP. The non-oil sector is still the major contributor to the GDP, which includes agriculture and manufacturing.”

 

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Olalekan is a certified media practitioner from the Nigerian Institute of Journalism (NIJ). In the era of media convergence, Olalekan is a valuable asset, with ability to curate and broadcast news. His zeal to write was developed out of passion to shape people’s thought and opinion; serving as a guideline for their daily lives. Contact for tips: [email protected]

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Hospitality & Travel

34.5% decline in aviation jet fuel daily sufficiency, a worry for airline companies

Decline in daily aviation fuel sufficiency worry airlines as air passengers are expected to increase in the festive season.

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Airline operators will pay $3,500 per passenger if they break protocols – PTF COVID-19, Global Air passenger slump to persists til 2023- Moody’s 2023- Moody’s

The 34.5% decline in the daily sufficiency of aviation jet fuel may constitute a worry for airline companies in the country.

Considering that there is usually more people traveling due to the traditional Christmas and New Year festivities, resulting in increased flight patronage, the current total stock level appears to be low.

The observation is according to the daily petroleum products days sufficiency (total stock level data) compiled by the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency (PPPRA).

In line with the data available on the PPPRA website,

  • The current total stock level of Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), also known as aviation jet fuel or Jet-A1, stands at 89.04 million litres.
  • Eleven days earlier, the total stock level was 135.83 million litres – indicating a 34.5% decline.
  • Before now and since the start of the 2020, total stock level has been relatively unstable, with the recent highest total stock level of 187.40 million litres recorded on the 2nd of October 2020 – indicating about 60 days sufficiency; and the lowest 54.96 million litres was recorded on the 17th of July – about 18 days sufficiency.
  • As at the time the latest report was released, 27th November 2020, the total ATK stock was land-based stock.
  • Checks indicate there has been no receipt of ATK from the 19th of November, after the last receipt of 5.56 million litres on the 18th of November.

What they are saying

Speaking to Nairametrics regarding the decline, the MD/CEO of Jushad Oil and Gas Ltd, Mr. Bosun Paseda, submitted that the decline is due to the continuous increase in the exchange rate.

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He said, “The exchange rate is very high and unstable. You will discover that importers do not have access to the CBN rate and have to make recourse to the parallel market. The landing cost is currently higher than the rate we sell at the airport. That’s why marketers do not want to bring the product.

“Scarcity is likely to set in, but the reason there is no scarcity yet is because people are not really flying. If it stays the same, then scarcity may set in, when travel increases.”

Responding to the question on whether the decline in stock has affected the price of the product, Mr Paseda noted that it has not really affected the price of the product as consumption is currently low.

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What you should know

Nairametrics recently reported that oil markets yearned for airlines to resume operations following several months of not operating due to the Covid-19 pandemic travel restrictions.

  • Aside from the loss of revenues to airline companies, the call was necessary considering that Jet fuel demand averages about 8 million barrels per day worldwide – indicating that oil companies were also not recording enough revenues.
  • As a result of the pandemic, the International Energy Agency expects demand for Jet fuel and Kerosene to fall by 2.1 million bpd on average in 2020. This has, however, improved following lifting of travel restrictions in many countries.

Now that flights have resumed operations, it appears airline companies in the country may be in line to face another hurdle before the year runs out. The likelihood of facing this hurdle is highly contingent on receipt of ATK used in powering flights and increased travels. If things remain the same in terms of daily sufficiency of ATK needed to power their flights, scarcity may set in.

  • Remember that the lowest ATK of 54.96 million litres – about 18 days sufficiency, recorded on the 17th of July, was during travel restrictions. The decline in that period didn’t create concerns and it picked up days later.

What this means

  • With the national average daily consumption of ATK three million litres, this depicts that current total stock level of 89.04 million litres will only sustain for about 30 days, all things being equal.
  • Even though it appears this stock level is good, the steady decline in the stock level as illustrated in the graph above raises immediate concerns.
  • Also, one may conclude that receipt of ATK has stalled in recent days, having received only a total of 12.68 million litres in the last two weeks, since 12th November. This observation appears to denote that should the product receipt trend continue, scarcity may occur in the near future.

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Economy & Politics

Governors to meet on Wednesday over rising insecurity

The governors of the 36 States of the federation will hold an emergency virtual meeting to discuss growing insecurity in the country.

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Oil Price Crash: Governors to meet on budgetary and economic issues, Insecurity: Governors to meet on Wednesday over rising insecurity

The Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF) has announced that the Governors of the 36 States will hold an emergency virtual meeting to discuss the recent killings and kidnappings by terrorist groups, and agree on a new national security plan to secure the lives of citizens.

This was disclosed in a statement by Head, Media and Public Affairs of the NGF, Mr Abdulrazaque Bello-Barkindo, on Monday in Abuja.

(READ MORE: Labour leaders reportedly walk-out on Ministers over fuel, electricity price hike)

The NGF disclosed in its statement that the Governors would also receive updates on the events following the disbandment of the SARS alongside the rising insecurity.

Other issues that will be discussed by the Governors include:

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  • CACOVID funding palliatives and updates across the states.
  • Joint meetings between the CBN and Kaduna State Governor, Nasir el-Rufai, on accessing pension funds to finance infrastructure development.
  • Updates on the ASUU strike. Issues related to Stamp Duty and the Water Resources Bill will also be discussed at the meeting.

What you should know 

There has been a rise in reported cases of kidnappings and killings by terrorists groups and bandits, especially in Northern Nigeria.

Nairametrics reported earlier that President Muhammadu Buhari had condemned the killing of farmers by Boko Haram on Saturday. The President added that the Federal Government had given the armed forces support to tackle insecurity in the country.

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Coronavirus

Covid-19: FG to reduce fatalities by strengthening capacity – Health Minister

The Minister said that the ministry plans to increase its capacity to battle the disease through personnel supervision.

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Minster for health, FG ignores travel ban calls despite Uganda, US, others move against coronavirus, FG reports 10 new cases of COVID-19, COVID-19: FG to inaugurate 18-man vaccine task team

The Federal Ministry of Health (FMOH) has announced plans to reduce case fatalities of the Covid-19 pandemic by focusing on improving the capability to manage the virus.

This was disclosed by the Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire, during the daily Joint National Briefing of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on Covid-19 in Abuja.

The Minister said that the ministry plans to increase its capacity to battle the disease through personnel supervision.

He said, “We hope to reduce case fatalities by strengthening our capacity to manage cases, but it is only possible if persons test themselves early. All cases, whether home-based or institutional are to be supervised by medical personnel. This is particularly  important, given the threat posed by the spiralling rate of infection in countries with which Nigeria has strong political, business, social, and family relations.”

(READ MORE: FG may stop interstate and inter-town travels)

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He urged Nigerians to cut off travel to high-risk countries, as the travel rate determines the risk the ministry could contain with.

“There is a correspondingly high volume of travel between Nigeria and those countries, which is what also determines the risk. I also urge all Nigerians to cut off all travels, especially international travels, most especially travels to high risk countries, except it is very urgent.”

He stated that it might take Nigeria a while before securing the vaccines, even though the country had started the process of securing access to a vaccine.

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“Although we are positioning our country for access to the Covid-19 vaccine, it may still take a while for countries to access it and for all citizens to be vaccinated. It is, therefore, more realistic that we adopt preventive measures which have proven to be successful in controlling the pandemic,” Ehanire added.

What you should know: Nairametrics reported in October that Dr. Ehanire said Nigeria increased its daily testing capacity for Covid-19 to over 3,500/day.

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