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Inflation rate, rise and fall explained

Inflation rate, rise and fall explained

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Why FSDH is forecasting a slight increase in Nigeria's inflation rate

This article is written to help explain the confusion that arises with the characterization of inflation rate as a rise of fall. Whenever the National Bureau of Statistics releases its headline inflation rate news outlets often report it in ways that confuse the message to the ordinary Nigerian.

For example, If Nigeria’s inflation rate for the month of June was 16.1% indicating that Nigeria’s inflation rate has fallen for 5 months consecutively. In the same vein, the inflation rate of 16.1% can also be reported as a rise in the month of June. To make matter worse it can also be reported that month on month inflation rose by 1.6% for the month of June. So why all this confusion about rise and fall?

Definition of Inflation

Inflation rate is the percentage rise the average prices of a basket of goods and services from one period (the present) and the corresponding period in the past. It is measured by taking the percentage difference between the base in the current month and the base in the same month in a prior year. This term is called the year on year inflation and is also referred to as the headline inflation rate because that is what is used by you banks, suppliers, clients etc. to rework their pricing. It can also be the difference between the base in the current month and the prior month within the same year. This is called the month on month inflation rare.

Example

Assuming the weighted average prices in a basket of goods and services in June 2016 was 201.7 (the base) and that of June 2017 was 234.2 (new base). The inflation rate will be calculated as the percentage growth between the new base and the prior base which is 16.1%. Therefore, the National Bureau of Statistics will then declare that inflation rate rose by 16.1% for the month of June 2017.

[Read Also: A look at the attendant impacts of the new Customs Exchange Rate]

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Does it always rise

By default, the word inflation signifies a rise so any time inflation rate is mentioned it means prices of goods and services rose between one period and another. The opposite of an inflation rate is a deflation, which means rather than rise the prices of goods and services fell. In the example above, if June 2017 base was 198.2, then the Bureau of Statistics will say we had a deflation of -0.01%. Deflation is very rare and usually occurs in countries like Japan. Nigeria has not experienced a deflation in recent history.

So, what do they mean when they say inflation is fallen?

Now to address this confusion, a fall in the rate of inflation basically means that the inflation rate in a particular month is not lower than the inflation rate in a prior month or months. For example, assuming May 2017 inflation rate was 16.25% and June is 16.1% one can assert that inflation rate has fallen in June compared to May. In other words, a fall in inflation is a slow down in the rate of growth in inflation. So even though year on year inflation did rise by 16.1% in June, it fell by 0.15% when compared to May’s 16.25%.

Month on Month Inflation

The Month on Month inflation also follows a similar pattern, just that as in our example, the base for the June 2017, is compared to the base of May 2017. So assuming the base of May 2017 was 230.5 and the base for June 2017 is 234.2, month on month inflation will be the percentage difference between the two which is 1.58%.

[Read Also: Nigeria’s Inflation drops to 11.08% in July 2019, slowest in 3 years]

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Summary

Whenever you hear the word inflation just know that it represents a rise between one base period (the current) and another base the former. A fall only indicates the slower rise in a rise in inflation.

Nairametrics is Nigeria's top business news and financial analysis website. We focus on providing resources that help small businesses and retail investors make better investing decisions. Nairametrics is updated daily by a team of professionals. Post updated as "Nairametrics" are published by our Editorial Board.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Martins Falokun

    July 24, 2017 at 9:45 am

    Whoever wrote this article …. I owe you a beer

  2. Joseph

    August 16, 2019 at 10:05 am

    This is a very wonderful article. Thumbs up

    However, I have a question.
    Shouldn’t the percentage inflation fall for the month to month inflation in the example be 1.6% instead of 1.58%?

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Personal Finance

How to fund capital projects debt-free with high interest yielding investments

These are the four things you need to fund your capital projects debt-free.

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The one thing that will reveal to you the gaps in your current financial situation is capital projects. A capital project is any project that is beyond your current and future financial capacity to execute. For most people, capital projects lead them into debt. Debt and Capital projects go hand in hand because the income of most people is still struggling to meet basic bills. And in instances where income is high, expenses overwhelm income. So whether you are a high-income earner or a low-income earner, the chances are high that you will struggle to fund certain capital projects in your life.

To fund capital projects, you need four things to be working simultaneously in your life. The First thing is your ability to earn high incomes. The second thing is your ability to keep a major part of that income. The third thing is your ability to grow that income without losing it. And the fourth thing is your ability to build solid Passive Income that exceeds your current Active Income. These are the four things you need to fund capital projects debt-free. Unfortunately, only a few people know how to do all four things correctly. Certain people hardly thrive in one area. But, if funding capital projects debt free is important to you. You must know how to do all four things well or surround yourself with people who can help you.

Funding a capital project debt-free is a difficult task to achieve if all you have is a modest income and meager savings. The lower your income the more things become capital projects to you. This means that what is a capital project for you may not be capital projects for another person. To help us unify our definition of capital projects. Let us use an example of capital projects that we all agree is the most difficult to fund debt-free. This example is Homeownership.

Homeownership is a type of capital project and one of the most popular capital projects because many people want to achieve it. By the time you are an independent adult, the desire for homeownership is already burning inside of you. This desire comes from parent influences, external pressure, and the frustration of paying rent to a homeowner. Owning a home is thus one of the most universally accepted capital projects with a global desire. It is also the most expensive capital project to fund. Yet despite its expansiveness, most people want to achieve it. Every year millions of people attempt to climb the homeownership ladder. A few of them make it. Many of them are buried in debt. And many more fail to achieve it. This is because the desire for homeownership does not automatically translate to owning a home. And here is why.

Many people are trying to own a home on the fragile back of a low income and low savings. The truth is one income, and low savings cannot fund the homeownership project. To fund your dream home you need multiple streams of income and big portion savings. Second, you need to overcome the temptation of owning a home too soon. Many people rush to own a remote and low budget home. A home where people struggle to come to due to its distance and neighborhood. Owning a home is not about being the first to own a crappy home. It is about being the first to own the dream home in a dream location and to do it debt-free. Attempting to own a home too soon is the reason most people end up with crappy homes that are way below their league. Homeownership is best achieved at a time when you are most financially capable to fund it. This is not to say you just sit and do nothing before then. But to say that you use that time to build the solid cash reserves you need to fund your dream home.

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So how then do you fund your dream home?

To fund your dream home there are three paths you can take.

The first path is the Loan path. This is where you borrow money and end up in debt. The second path is the bootstrap savings path. This is where you painstakingly save your way to homeownership. Only a few people ever achieve this. The third and most effective path is to create your own interest-free solid cash reserves and then use them to fund your dream home. This is the Path we will be dwelling on in this article.

So how then do you create your own interest-free cash reserves?

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To create your own interest-free cash reserves there are four things you must do.

The First is to develop Income security skills. The second thing is to leverage a complementary Side Hustle. The third thing is to establish a Financial defense System. And the fourth thing is to use a multipurpose, high interest yielding investment vehicle to build your cash reserves. Below I explain each of these points in detail.

Develop Income Security Skills

There is only one way to secure your income in the world. This way is not to secure your job. But to develop high-income skills that preserve your ability to earn high incomes. The truth is there is no job security out there and since homeownership is a long-term process. You need certain skills to guarantee a continuous flow of cash. There are three income security skills that can help you achieve this. The first is problem-solving or creativity skill. The second is Relationship building or Networking skills. And the third is marketing and sales skills. These are the three skills you need to secure your homeownership income. And ensure you are never recycled back into the pool of broke people. Developing income security skills is thus critical for funding your dream home. The key to success here is to invest in developing and refining these skills. And to put them to practice and perfect them. If you need help developing these skills or practicing and perfecting them send an email to [email protected]

Get a Complimentary High Income Side Hustles

No homeownership project can be funded debt-free from a single meager source of income. Thus to fund your dream home you have to grow your main income and add another source of income to it. To grow your main income you need to rise to positions that have a direct impact on profit and revenue. Then you need to find a side hustle that complements your main income.

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The problem is most people do not know the side hustles that complements their main income. They are also concerned about whether or not they will like this side hustle or make the desired income out of it.

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The key to identifying the side hustle that is right for you is to consider these three things. The first is your interest. Can you do and promote this side hustle easily? The second is the income speed. How soon before this side hustle produces the kind of income that you desire. And the third is the workload and time requirement. How much time do you have to invest to generate the kind of income that you desire? Adding a side hustle that increases workload. Consumes time. Reduces job efficiency and drains current income is a mistake. The key here is to identify side hustles that complements your main income. And ensure that your side hustle has the high-income capacity and is aligned with your area of interests

To find this kind of side hustle you need to identify your current area of interest. So if you are reading this article right now. Chances are high that you are interested in making more money and funding capital projects debt-free. If you can find other people within your circle who are also interested in making more money. And funding capital projects. And if you and these people are willing to invest in products and services that can help you. You can make a high-income side hustle from it. Granted that the product or service you promote solves a high-income problem. Thus to earn high incomes you need to choose side hustles that can pay you high income. Getting rich through a side hustle is thus about first solving your own problems. And then showing other people how you can help them solve the same problem. This is the fastest way to get on the High-income side hustle ladder. Every other way takes time, produce low income, and increases your workload. To fund your dream home debt-free. You must choose side hustles that require you to work less earn more and produce income in less time. This is the fastest way to fund your dream home.

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Build Your Own Personal Financial Defense System

The worse way to try and fund a capital project such as homeownership is to do it without a financial defense system in place. A financial defense system is a system that can provide you income in the presence or absence of a Job. This is important because homeownership is a long-term project. And you need the continuous flow of income to survive.

So how do you build a solid financial defense system that protects you throughout the homeownership process?

To build a solid financial defense system there are four things you must do. The first is to hit a big portion savings target. The second is to make your savings failure-proof. The third thing is to shield your savings from financial distractions. And the fourth is to spend in the direction of Freedom.

i. Achieve a Big Portion Savings Target

Saving is a critical part of every investing activity. So if funding your dream home is important to you. You must save a significant part of your income. To save 50% of your income for example there are two things you can do. The first is to increase your income, to the point where it overwhelms your expenses. To do this you need high-income skills and high-income side hustles. The second thing is to reduce your expenses to the point it becomes lower than your savings. The fastest and most effective way to do this is to focus on increasing savings and not reducing expenses. And there are two ways to increase savings. The first is to increase savings by 1% every month until you hit a big portion savings target. Your expenses will adjust accordingly. The second way is to deduct a big portion of your income as savings from the source. And figure out how to live on what is left. If you survive after a month it means you can live on what is left. These are the two smart ways to increase your savings and invariably adjust your expenses.

ii. Make savings Failure Proof

One of the abilities you must have if you want to fund your dream home debt-free is the ability to consistently save without skipping it. Skipping savings is postponing your financial freedom and homeownership dream. Thus if you want to save without fail, you must make your savings failure-proof. To make savings failure proof you need to deduct savings from the source. Use compulsory savings vehicles such as group contributions or standing orders. And be accountable to someone you trust and respect.

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iii. Shield savings from Financial Distractions

The biggest killer of all the savings in the world is financial distractions. The inability to stop unplanned events and people from stealing your savings. Financial distraction derails your saving from its original purpose. And this elongates your ability to own your own home. To own your own home you must shield your savings from financial distractions. To shield savings from distractions you need certain protective investment vehicles. You also need to assign a purpose to every idle fund. And to work with a mentor to keep idle funds tied up for the right purpose. This is the only way to fund your dream home in record time and without delays.

iv. Spend in the direction of Freedom

There are two ways to spend money. The first is to spend in the direction of freedom and the second is to spend in the direction of poverty. To Fund a dream home debt-free you must spend in the direction of freedom. When you spend in ways that use up big portions of your income. You are facing the direction of poverty. And when you spend in ways that save up bigger portions of your income You are facing the direction of freedom. The key here is to save more than you spend and spend in the direction of where you want to go.

These are the four things to do. To build a solid Financial defense system that supports you throughout the homeownership process.

Choose a Multi-Purpose High-Interest Yielding Investment Vehicle

There are many investment vehicles in the world. But the most suited and effective investment vehicle. For funding capital projects is the multi-purpose high-interest yielding long-term investment vehicle. This is a special purpose vehicle that has been designed to fund capital projects. It is a multi-purpose vehicle because it can fund many capital projects within the same time frame. It is also safe and high interest yielding because it is a long-term investment vehicle. So if you are considering owning a home debt-free at some time in the future. This is the best investment vehicle for you. The key to investing is to never lose money, especially when building towards a capital project.. Once you choose the right investment vehicles that preserve your investment. You will fund your dream home in no time.

The truth is you will remain the same person year after year except for your ability to make more money. Your ability to keep more money. And your ability to grow that money without losing it. The more you master these three abilities the richer you become. And the easier it will be to fund your dream home. There is nothing as powerful as having zero cash worries when you want to fund your dream home.

If you want to own your own home, make extra income, or fund capital projects debt free we can help you. Send an email to [email protected]


About author

Grace Agada is The Senior Financial Happiness Director @ Create Solid Wealth. She is an author, and column contributor in six national newspapers. She is a contributor at BellaNaija, Nairametrics and Proshare and she is on a mission to help working-class professionals and CEOs become more financially successful. To learn more about Grace and how she can help you send an email to [email protected]

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Business

The FG in partnership with the private sector will continue to support MSMEs – Osinbajo

Osinbajo has stated that the FG in partnership with the private sector would continue to provide interventions to boost the growth of small businesses.

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Solar, FG to slash import duties on tractors, buses, others in 2020 Finance Bill, Nigeria will not issue Eurobonds, says Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, FG guarantees mortgage loan to low income buyers at low interest rate, FG inaugurates gold refinery project in a landmark event

Nigeria’s Vice-president Prof. Yemi Osinbajo during an MSME stakeholders’ meeting, disclosed that the Federal Government in partnership with the private sector would continue to provide interventions to boost the growth of small businesses across the country.

According to a press statement issued by Laolu Akande, the VP made this statement on Monday at the first meeting of MSMEs stakeholders for the year 2021.

Prof. Osinbajo said the Government would continue to support innovation and interventions to deepen the involvement of new and existing MSMEs in the nation, this he said would help to improve the economy and create more employment opportunities for Nigerians.

He stressed further that the implementation of the Economic Sustainability Plan Survival Funds has sent positive economic signals. In a bid to complement the gains in this space, the Government needs to scale up interventions in the MSMEs sector.

In this vein, Osinbajo urged stakeholders in the public and private sectors at the virtual meeting to be innovative in the interventions planned for small businesses across the country, so as to consolidate on the gains recorded in the MSMEs space in the past few years.

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What they are saying

Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, during the MSME stakeholders’ meeting, said:

“We must continue to be innovative in the interventions that we plan for MSMEs because small businesses are the engines of growth of any economy, in the areas of wealth creation and employment opportunities, MSMEs are very important.”

Continuing, Prof. Osinbajo said:

“We really have to think out of the box in our engagements going forward. We need to change the way we do many things, we need to look for ways of multiplying our efforts because the challenges in this space are greater than what we have been able to achieve so far. Of course, we have done a lot, but looking at the numbers in need, you will find out that there is a lot more to be done.”

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What you should know

  • The Federal Government’s MSMEs Survival Fund grant scheme, which includes Payroll Support, Artisans and Transport support tracks, is a component under the Nigerian Economic Sustainability Plan, NESP.
  • The Survival Fund scheme was designed to cushion the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic especially on the most vulnerable small businesses, is a conditional grant to support vulnerable MSMEs in meeting their payroll obligations and safeguard jobs in the MSMEs sector.
  • The scheme is estimated to save not less than 1.3 million jobs across the country. However, 283,023 Nigerians employed by MSMEs across the country have benefited from the Payroll Support Scheme. This leaves millions of Nigerians out of the consideration of the scheme.

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MSME

283,023 Nigerians employed by MSMEs have benefited from FG Payroll Support Scheme

The FG has revealed that over 200,000 persons have so far benefited from its Payroll Support Program.

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Nigerian MSMEs suffer negative impact of COVID-19

The Federal Government of Nigeria has disclosed that 283,032 Nigerians employed by MSMEs across the country have so far benefited from the Payroll Support Scheme of the Federal Government.

This disclosure was made in a tweet shared via FG Survival Fund’s official Twitter account.

What you should know

  • The Payroll Support Program by FG under the Survival Fund initiative was created to provide an adequate buffer against the impact of the COVID-19 on the stream of income of MSMEs.
  • This, however, is an offshoot of the Survival Fund initiative, established to support and protect small businesses from potential vulnerabilities brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • In line with the mandate of the programme, the government will support MSMEs with staff salaries for 3 months.
  • It is important to note that the COVID-19 pandemic and other regulatory actions of the Federal Government affected the core segments of SMEs, as well as the revenue and income vehicles of Small businesses in Nigeria.
  • According to a survey by NBS, it became public knowledge that the total number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises in the country was about 41.5 million, as of December 2017, with significant employment contribution running to millions.
  • In the light of this, it is plausible to say that the Payroll support programme is not inclusive enough, as the recent move by FG to support MSMEs leaves millions of MSMEs and their employees out of the radar.

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