Prices of major household food items have increased significantly across major markets in Lagos State, as a result of low harvest and scarcity. This is according to the latest Household Market Survey conducted by Nairalytics – the research arm of Nairametrics.

The persistent rise in the price of food items has been enabled by dwindling harvest, which has caused scarcity of commodities across major markets in Lagos State. Some of the items that surged as a result of the scarcity include tomatoes, melon and maize.

READ: Prices of frozen Fish, Yam, Pepper, others jump as traders lament low sales in major markets

The report shows that a big basket of Oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N17,000, indicating a 6.3% increase in price when compared to N16,000 recorded in September. A big bag of Melon increased by 22.4%, to sell for an average of N46,500.

The report contains information on items that witnessed price increase, price decrease, as well as information on special markets, and insights.

READ: Alert: Tomato prices are up by over 80% in these Lagos markets

Items that witnessed price increase

• A carton of Turkey increased by 5.8% to sell for an average of N18,333, compared to an initial average of N17,333 recorded in September 2020.
• A carton of full Chicken that was sold for an average of N14,000 two weeks ago, now sells for an average of N14,500. This represents 3.6% increase in price.
• A carton of Chicken laps increased by 2.4% to sell for an average of N14,333, compared to N14,000 recorded in September.
• A big bag of Bush mango seed, popularly known as “Ogbono” now sells for N100,000 at Mile-12 market. A 5.3% increase compared to N95,000 reported earlier.
• A big bag of dry Onions increased by 48% to sell for an average of N55,500, compared to an initial average of N37,500.
• A big bag of new Onions spiked by 60.8% to sell for an average of N41,000. It was initially sold for an average of N25,500.
• A big bag of Yellow Maize that was initially sold for an average of N17,667 now sells for an average of N20,167 – a 14.2% increase in two weeks.
• A big bag of White Maize also increased by 17.7% to sell for an average of N20,000, compared to an initial average of N17,000.
• A big bag of Pepper increased by 9.7% to sell for an average of N17,000, while a medium-sized bag sells for an average of N9,000 – a 38.5% increase in price.
• A Mackerel fish, popularly known as “Kote” sells for an average of N663. An increase of 3.9% from an initial average of N638.
• A big basket of Oval-shaped Tomatoes now sells for N17,000 at Mile-12 market, compared to N16,000 recorded in the later part of last month. A small basket increased by 5.6% to sell for N9,500.
• A pack of 500g Dangote Pasta increased marginally by 1.21% to sell for an average of N4,175, compared to an initial average of N4,125.
• A big bag of Melon increased by 22.4% to sell for an average of N46,500, compared to an initial N38,000 recorded in September.

READ: Food items’ stock pile-up across major markets, as prices continue to drop 

Items that witnessed price decrease

• A big basket of Sweet Potato now sells for an average of N13,500, from an initial average of N14,000 – a 3.6% reduction in price.
• The price of a big basket of Irish Potatoes reduced by 29.5% to sell for an average of N21,500, compared to N30,500 recorded in September.
• A 50kg bag of White Beans sells for an average of N25,025. It reduced by 15.9% from an initial average of N29,750.
• 5 litres gallon of Palm Oil currently sells for an average of N2,375 from an initial average of N2,425. 25 litres gallon sells for an average of N12,125.
• A big bag (nylon) of Crayfish currently sells for an average of N12,500, compared to an initial average of N13,000.
• A big Horse Mackerel fish popularly known as “Kote” sells for an average of N625. It was initially sold for an average of N663.

READ: Prices of food items jump across Lagos markets, as traders lament transport fare hike

Items that maintained initial prices

• A 50kg bag of Royal Stallion Rice still sells for an average of N30,333, Mama Gold (N29,750), Caprice (N29,667), and Mama’s Pride (N25,500).
• A big sized bag of Brown Beans still sells for an average of N33,000.
• The various brands of noodles maintained their initial prices. 305g carton of Indomie still sells for an average of N3,150, 210g of Indomie (N3,200), and 100g of Chikki (N2,200).
• The price of a 50kg bag of Yellow Garri remains unchanged at an average of N13,000.
• The price of a 50kg bag of Flour remains on the high, as Dangote sells for an average of N14,333, Honey well (N14,375), and Mama Gold (N14,125).
• A big basket of Round-shaped Tomatoes still sells for an average of N14,000, while a medium-sized basket sells for an average of N8,500.

READ: Prices of beans, potatoes, palm oil, others jump as traders lament hike, seasonal scarcity

Special markets/items

Nairametrics research found that there are two varieties of pepper at Mile-12 market, a small and a big one. A big bag of the big Pepper sells for an average of N17,000 while that of the small Pepper sells for an average of N10,000. Interestingly, a medium-sized bag of the small pepper sells for an average of N9,000.

Mr. Musa, a Pepper seller at the market, explained that the reason for the difference in price between the two varieties is that the small pepper is more peppery, when compared to the bigger one. He added that most people from the Western part of the country prefer to buy the small ones, as they like to prepare spicy meals.

READ: Data War: MTN edges out Airtel, first time in 5 months as more subscribers dump Glo, 9mobile 

Our agent at Daleko market, told Nairametrics Research that one of the major types of brown beans (Niger beans) is now scarce in the market, same goes for Maiduguri beans. However, she stated that “Oloyin Pelebe” is currently sold for an average of N22,000, Gombe beans (big bag) for an average of N33,000, and the small bag sells for an average of N27,000.

READ: Prices of tomatoes, frozen foods, onions, others jump, as low demand hits imported rice 

Market insights

Scarcity of major food items across Lagos markets has caused a significant hike in the price of commodities, as traders highlighted the reasons for the persistent increase.

Mr. KC from Mile-12 market said it is a surprise to traders that Melon is now sold for N48,000 in the market, since it is always cheap at this time of the year. However, he attributed the price increase to scarcity of the commodity. According to him, farmers did not cultivate significant quantity of melon because of the incessant rain in recent times.

“Melon requires sun to dry; however, the northern part of the country witnessed lots of rainfall this year, which really affected the cultivation of the commodity during this period,” he added.

Nairametrics Research met a scanty Onion section of Mile 12 market during visitation this week. In a discussion with one of the sellers named Ismail, he said that the prices of onions have spiked significantly because of its scarcity.

According to Ismail, there has been limited influx of new onions into the market, while dry onions is even more limited. He said the price is also expensive in the north.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

About Nairametrics Food Price Survey

Nairametrics Food Price Watch, is a bi-weekly Household Market Survey that covers the prices of major food items in Nigeria, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market, and Mile 12 market.

Nigeria recorded a whopping 52% drop in exports proceeds in the quarter ending June 2020 mostly due to the effects of Covid-19. This is contained in the Current Account Deficit numbers published by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The current account deficit for the quarter fell to $3.2 billion compared to first-quarter data of $5.6 billion, the latest report indicates.

Explore Data on the Nairametrics Research Website

Export drop

According to the data, total exports in the second quarter of the year fell to $6.3 billion from $13.8 billion in the first quarter of 2020 before the Covid-19 lockdown grounded the economy. Crude Oil inflows which Nigeria relies on for 85% of its export proceeds went from $11.2 billion in the first quarter to just $5.2 billion in the second quarter of the year.

READ: PenCom recovers N17.51billion from defaulting employers, imposes penalties

Crude Oil prices fell to as low as $20 per barrel in April as markets panicked as the Covid-19 lockdown spread globally. OPEC members also decided to cut crude oil output with Nigeria’s quota falling from 1.8 million barrels per day to just 1.4 million barrels per day. This culminated in lower export proceeds for Nigeria piling pressure to devalue the currency after the first devaluation in late March.

READ: Nigeria’s forex devaluation timeline – 2020

Non-oil revenues also fell sharply from $2.1 billion in the first quarter of the year to $1.1 billion in the second quarter of the year revealing how damaging the pandemic has been on the economy. Nigeria earned an average of $2.6 billion per quarter from non-oil exports in 2019, the highest since 2008 when the CBN started publishing figures.

Imports also fall

Nigeria’s dollar outflow for imports also fell from $14.7 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to $10 billion in the second quarter of the year. The fall was also driven by a drop in oil imports falling to just $307 million from $3.7 billion. Non-oil exports which is a major driver of dollar outflows from Nigeria $11 billion to $9.7 billion. This was also due to the impact of the lockdown as most goods imported into the country from other parts of the world fell.

READ: Samsung Electronics profits increased by 58% in the third quarter

Despite several import substitution policies of the current government, Nigerians spent an average of $12.7 billion on the importation of goods into the country in 2019 compared to $7.3 billion a year earlier. The country’s main non-oil imports are boilers, machinery and appliances gulping over 27% of imports. Vehicle parts are also a major source of dollar outflows with over 12.8% of the value of what is imported into the country.

READ: Nigeria’s worsening current account deficit piles pressure on exchange rate

The government has focussed its ban on accessing forex for the importation of listed items which they believe can be made in Nigeria. Most of these items are food-related.

Why this matters: Nigeria’s exchange rate is mostly determined by how much dollars the country can attract compared to outflows.

READ: CBN Commences distribution of grants and inputs worth over N700 million to cocoa Farmers

• With exports proceeds down by over 50% pressure was on the central bank to devalue the naira.
• However, the CBN also had the option of managing the demand side of the deficit culminating in a drop in current account deficits.
• The more Nigeria earns from exports compared to imports the higher the chances that the exchange rate will remain stable.
• For example, in 2018 when the exchange rate was stable at N360/$1, Nigeria earned about $15.3 billion in dollar inflows or exports (mostly from crude oil sales) compared to $10.1 billion in imports.
• Thus Nigeria will need to either earn more from exports or cut some of its reliance on imports if it is to maintain a stable exchange rate for the country.

Nigerians continue to grapple with the persistent increase in prices of household food items as rice, vegetable oil, flour, tomatoes, onions and frozen food items recorded significant increase in price at the end of September. This was contained in the latest Household Market Survey conducted by Nairalytics, the research arm of Nairametrics.

Major food items continue to jump across Lagos markets as sustained structural issues affecting food production and supply were further exacerbated by the lockdown measures implemented by the Government in response to curbing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

READ: US headline crude oil crashes further, below $0 in an unprecedented outcome

According to the latest survey conducted by Nairalytics, a big bag of round shaped tomatoes spiked by 16.7% to sell for an average of N14,000 compared to N12,000 recorded a fortnight ago. Also, a cartoon of frozen Chicken that was initially sold for an average of N13,000 now sells for N14,000.

On the flip side, a 50kg bag of Mama Gold Flour which endured a sudden increase two weeks ago to N16,500 now sells for an average of N14,125.

The report contains information on items that witnessed price increase, price decrease, as well as information on special markets, and insights.

READ: Unknown entity transfers $166 million worth of Bitcoins

Items that witnessed price increase 

Listed below are the items that recorded significant price increase:

• A 50kg bag of Mama’s Pride rice increased by 3% to sell for an average of N25,500 compared to an initial average of N24,750.
• Also, a 50kg bag of foreign rice (Mama Gold) rice sells for an average of N29,750. This indicates a 3% increase compared to N28,875 recorded earlier in September.
• A 50kg bag of Royal Stallion (Foreign rice) also increased by 1.1%. selling for an average of N30,333 as against N30,000 earlier reported.
• A 70g carton of Golden Penny noodles recorded an 8.47% increase in price to sell for an average of N1,600 compared to N1,475 recorded two weeks ago.
• A 5 litres gallon of local vegetable oil that was sold for an average of N2,750 two weeks ago now sells for N3,100 indicating a 12.7% increase in price.
• Also, a 25 litres gallon increased by 4.84% to sell for an average of N14,625 from initial average N13,950.
• A big basket of round shaped tomatoes increased by 16.7% to sell for an average of N14,000 as against N12,000 recorded two weeks ago.
• A medium-sized basket of round shaped tomatoes also increased by 21.4% to sell for an average of N8,500 compared an initial average of N7,000.
• A big basket of oval-shaped tomatoes now sells for an average of N16,000 representing an 100% increase in price.
• A carton of full chicken sells for an average of N14,000 compared to an initial average of N13,000. The frozen food item increased by 7.7%.
• While the price of a carton of chicken laps, also increased by 7.7% to sell for an average of N14,000.
• A big bag of dry onion now sell for an average of N37,500, increasing by 7.9% from an initial average of N34,750.

Items that witnessed price decrease

Some of the items that recorded slight decrease in prices include:

• A 50kg bag of white beans recorded a decline in price of 6.3% to sell for an average of N29,750 as against N31,750 recorded earlier in the month.
• A medium-sized tuber of yam now sells for an average of N638, representing 10.5% reduction in price.
• Mama Gold flour (50 kg) that was sold for an average of N16,500 two weeks ago, is now being sold for an average of N14,125.
• A big bag of pepper currently sells for an average of N15,500, decreasing by 3.1% from an initial average of N16,000 while a medium bag size decreased by 7.1% to sell for an average of N6,500.
• The price of a big bag of yellow maize dipped by 14.5% to sell for an average of N17,667 while that of white maize also reduced by 15.7% to sell for an average of N17,000.
• Bush mango seed (Ogbono) that was sold for N105,000 earlier in September, now sells for an average of N95,000 representing 9.5% reduction in price.

Items that maintained initial prices

• Items whose prices remained the same, compared to two weeks ago include:
• A big bag of new onions continues to sell for an average of N25,500, same as recorded two weeks ago
• A crate of raw egg still sells for an average of N1,200 across the four markets.
• Refilling of 12.5kg cylinder of household cooking gas still cost average of N3,275 while 5kg cylinder costs an average of N1,375.
• Dangote and Honeywell flour still sell for an average of N14,333 and N14,375 respectively.
• A big basket of sweet potatoes continues to sell for an average of N14,000 while Irish potatoes of the same size, still sell for an average of N30,500
• 50kg bag of beans (Oloyin) still sell for an average of N20,375.

Special markets/items

• Recall that, Nairalytics earlier reported a significant surge in the price of flour across major markets in Lagos State. A visit to Oyingbo market revealed that the price of flour is still very much on the high side as most traders sell a 50kg bag of flour between N13,500 and N14,500 depending on the brand of the product.
• According to Mrs. Esther who bakes cake at Oyingbo market, “the increase in the price of flour, is really affecting us seriously, we bought a bag of flour for N11,000 before lockdown, now we are forced to buy for as high as N14,000 while we also buy 25 litres gallon of vegetable oil for an average of N15,000 despite the fact that we cannot increase the price of our goods so as not to discourage buyers”. She stated further that the increase in price of flour is affecting their ability to make profit and grow their businesses.
• Below are the prices of various brands of rice, sighted at Daleko market; Mama Gold (10kg) – N4,500, Royal Stallion (50kg) – N29,000, Rice Master (10kg) – N5,000, Mama Gold (50kg) – N29,500, Caprice (50kg) – N29,000, Mama’s Pride (50kg) – N25,500, Umza (50kg) – N24,500, Labana (50kg) – N25,000, Alamzat (50kg) – N23,500, Big Bull (50kg) – N25,000, Mama’s Choice (50kg) – N24,000.

Download the Nairametrics News App

Market insights

• Nigerians have been hit with persistent increase in prices of most food items despite the easing of lockdown in the country. Nairametrics visited some tomatoes sellers at Mushin and obtained some insightful responses as to cause of the recent spike in the price of tomatoes.
• According to Mrs. Alomaja, Northerners bringing in the items to the market are complaining of rain spoiling their harvests, which has, in turn, affected the price of the commodity. “this year, it did not rain as much as anticipated, and now when it is time to harvest heavy downpour of rain is now destroying the harvest in the farm” she said. This implies that the heavy rainfall has destroyed most of the harvest, hereby limiting the quantity of goods available for sale.
• Mr Yaya, on the other hand told Nairametrics that the increase in price of tomatoes is due to seasonal fluctuations, considering that the year is gradually getting to the end, a period characterized by increase in price of food items.
• Meanwhile, the price of a big bag of dry onions increased by 7.9% to sell for an average of N37,500. The increase has been attributed to scarcity of the commodity in the market. Mr. Kelechi, a trader at Mile 12 told Nairametrics that there have been limited quantity of the commodity coming into the market in recent times, which has caused the price of the item to surge.

READ: Smuggling of imported rice hits Lagos major markets, as residence brace for shutdown

About Nairametrics Food Price Survey

Nairametrics Food Price Watch, is a bi-weekly Household Market Survey that covers the prices of major food items in Nigeria, with emphasis on five major markets in Lagos – Mushin market, Daleko market, Oyingbo market, Idi-Oro market, and Mile 12 market.