Latest GDP report from the National Bureau of Statistics once again shines the spotlight on the country’s floundering Agriculture sector. This time, a silver lining, though faint, has appeared in the horizon. Nigeria’s Agricultural sector recorded the highest growth across the major sectors for the first time in five (5) quarters.
By the numbers: According to the Bureau’s data, in the first quarter (Q1) 2019, the Agricultural sector grew at 3.17 percent in real term, up from 2.46 percent in the previous quarter. Similarly, comparing the three key sectors which include agriculture, industrial and service sectors, the agriculture sector grew the highest. This is the first time Agriculture has grown faster than the other two sectors in any quarter since, at least 2018.
The key growth driver: There are four sub-sectors that makeup activities in the agricultural sector and they include Crop Production, Livestock, Forestry, and Fishing. A cursory look at the GDP data shows that Crop Production remains the major driver of the sector, accounting for about 85 percent of sector GDP.
.[Read also: Nigeria’s GDP records slow growth of 2.01% in Q1, as Oil contracts].
Not enough – The latest data must be encouraging for the current government considering the political capital that has been expended in growing the sector. Critics of the government will point to billions of naira spent on subsidies, direct loans to farmers as the opportunity cost of recording paltry single-digit growth. Add to the cost of bans on several imported items, particularly access to forex, then this growth numbers may not be as encouraging as expected.
The big picture: Despite all the billions spent, farmers still complain of low Agriculture yields, increase in smuggling and high transportation and distribution cost. Agricultural exports is still very poor at a paltry. Last year, Nigeria exported about N302.2 billion of Agriculture goods compared to N170.4 billion in 2017. However, Agricultural imports were N851.6 billion (2017 N886.7 billion), still over double exports.
The latest data might be encouraging for the government and its plethora of agriculture policies, but rather than get flattered by very modest growth, it probably a sign that the policies are not working as expected.
I think credit is due to the government for wanting to tackle this issue of diversification with a lot of focus on agriculture as well. No matter what policy the government puts out there, critics of such policies will always have their arguments against it. As long as it’s yielding results and moving us slowly away from oil then we should commend them. Nigeria is a complex country to run with everyone having the magic wand to solve all our problems but it has proven time and again that this isn’t the case. Let’s hope this govt can sustain its policies and actually drive growth in the region of 6-8% which is where we need to get to at the very minimum before we can start seeing the benefits of diversification.
Since it wasn’t mentioned in the article, ls there any correlation between the low farm mechanization rate and growth rate?
Is there any correlation between the low mechanization rate and growth rate?
No in specific term .Mechanization is a support system to increase the productivity. It is expected that once productivity and timeliness of field operations are achieved in Agriculture naturally it will spur growth. In a summary it is difficult to relate Mechanization directly to growth rate but can contribute substantially to drive the growth rate upward