Contrary to our expectation, headline inflation for the month of April 2019 rose to 11.37% year-on-year (YoY). This represents an increase of 0.12% from the previous rate of 11.25% YoY, being the first increase after three consecutive declines in inflation rate for 2019.
What caused this? This was due to pressure seen on Food Sub- index as the food inflation rose to 13.70% (year-on-year) in April, up from 13.45% recorded in March 2019 as prices increased for food items (most especially imported food) despite a fall in core inflation by 2bps to 9.30% from 9.50% as foreign exchange remained stable during the period under consideration.
Comparison: On a Month-on-Month basis, there was an increase in inflation rate as the headline inflation increased from 0.79% MoM in March to 0.94% MoM in April as price index for Imported Food, Food, and Non Alcoholic Beverages increased by 1.24%, 1.14% and 1.13% MoM respectively and as Core Inflation increased by 0.70% MoM, up by 0.17% recorded in March 2019.
Kebbi State tops the chart: In April 2019, headline inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Kebbi (14.82%), Bauchi (14.42%), Zamfara (13.99%), Kaduna (13.87%) and Adamawa (13.76%). On the flip side, Cross River (9.84%), Delta (9.94%), Abia (10.12%), Bayelsa (10.32%) and Kogi (10.36%) recorded the lowest rate in headline inflation. Headline inflation on a year-on-year basis in commercial city of Kano increased to 12.85% while Lagos and Abuja decreased to 11.80% and 11.77% respectively.
Nigeria’s Trading Partners Inflation Figure: Based on selected inflation reports of some of the country’s trade partners, we observed an increase in inflation rate for most, except for Egypt and Belgium that witnessed reductions in inflation rate.
Outlook for May 2019 Inflation Report: The following factors are expected to shape the inflation figure for May 2019:
  • Continued increase in food sub-index as the trade war between the US and China weighs on the price of some imported commodities.
  • Islam holy period began in the month of May.
  • Expected implementation of minimum wage

CONTACTS
Anchoria Asset Management Limited
5th Floor, Elephant House
214, Broad Street
Marina
Lagos
Investment Research research@anchoriaam.com +234 908 720 6076
Wealth Advisory investor-relations@anchoriaam.com +234 818 889 9455

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