The Nigerian market has become the most sought after for international tyre manufacturers on the continent because of its huge market potential. Sadly, the high cost of new tires and low purchasing power of consumers, caused by the recent economic contraction, has impacted negatively on the volume of sales.
Initially, there were some locally established tyre manufacturers in the country, but epileptic power supply in the country has forced some to relocate to neighbouring countries for their operations. This has created a thriving market for foreign brands in the country.
According to a TechSci Research report in 2015, the tyre market in Nigeria is dominated by the passenger car tire segment, and this trend is expected to continue over the next five years.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in Q1 2018, revealed that Nigeria has a total of 11.7 million vehicles, with commercial vehicles accounting for 6.8 million, representing about 58.08 percent, private are 4.7 million (40.67 percent), government vehicles followed with 139,264 (1.19 percent), while diplomatic vehicles accounted for 5,912 (0.05 percent).
Welcome to this week’s edition of Product Review, a weekly analysis where we feature products contending for prominence in Nigeria’s consumer marketsplace. This week, we bring you the various brands in the Vehicle Tyre market and how they are competing for visibility and profitability.
Brands in the market
In Nigeria’s tyre market, there are both premium and budget (cheaper) tyres. The declining purchasing power of consumers has continued to make the budget tires more attractive. These tyres (which account for about 80% of the Nigerian total tire market) are imported mainly from Asian countries.
Dunlop Nigeria Plc and Michelin Nigeria Limited are major pioneers in Nigeria’s tyre industry with the establishment of their respective manufacturing outfits. In 2005, the combined annual local capacity was 2.25 million units, representing 75% of Nigerian tyre market at that time. These two companies were the only tyre manufacturing outfits in Nigeria, and indeed the West African region. However, the owners of both factories shut them down at the end of 2008 and 2006 respectively.
Currently, there are about 150 brands of tyre in the Nigerian market. Dominant players include Dunlop, Michelin, Bridgestone, Pirelli, Firestone, and Continental tires. Apart from these flagship brands, several small players have also made entry into the Nigerian market.
On account of their significantly lower prices, brands from Asian countries have also increasingly penetrated the Nigerian market over the last few years. It is not uncommon to see brands such as Kumho, Hankook, and Yokohama in major distribution outlets across the country.
By 2008, imported brands accounted for about 90% share of the market, as against only 25% in 2005. Today, all the tyres in the Nigerian market are imported following the cessation of local tyre manufacturing. The high cost of tyre brands has also seen a boost in second-hand and substandard tyres. This often times results in road accidents. According to the Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC), 772 out of the 9,000 road traffic accidents (RTCs) recorded in 2015 across the country were caused by burst tyres.
SWOT Analysis of the market
Considering the huge population in the country and its growing young population, Nigeria is definitely a prime market for investors and manufacturers.
The growing vehicle sales, expanding automobile fleet and increasing infrastructure development are some of the major factors that have boosted the tyre market in the country.
Most brands with good tyres are very unaffordable, this has boosted smuggling activities at the nation’s porous border posts.
Abundance of natural rubber, carbon black and other Petro-chemicals in the country will be a huge value addition to manufacturing tyres.
Lack of basic infrastructure such as power has forced local manufacturers to close shop. Any manufacturer willing to do business in the country must invest in alternative power generation.
What consumers are saying
During an interview by Nairametrics, many motorists noted that price is a major factor when buying their tyres. A commercial driver, who gave his name as Bashiru, said he didn’t even know the names of tyre brands as he only goes for fairly used tires which are readily available in markets at cheaper rates.
According to him:
“I don’t even know their names, I get mine from my friend who sells fairly used tyres. This is cheaper than the brand new.”
Another car owner, Mr. Benjamin, said he goes for Michelin tyre because he has been using it for a while and it is very reliable.
Mr. Ikenna, a car dealer who also sells car spare parts in Ikeja, said that the pioneer brands still enjoy goodwill in the market, while the new brands are still struggling to gain customers’ confidence. However, affordability is a major factor for most Nigeria users.
In our Twitter poll, Michelin got 42%, Bridgestone got 25%, Dunlop and GoodYear got 18% and 15% respectively.
There are immense opportunities for local manufacturers in the country; however, the unreliable power supply and harsh operating environment has forced pioneer companies to shut down.
Also, the thriving second-hand tyre market is a growing concern as this has increased the rate of accidents on our roads. The Standard Organization of Nigeria (SON) and the Nigerian Customs Service must double down on their statutory responsibilities, while vehicle owners should exercise more caution when buying tyres.
Buy what? Dangote vs BUA Cement
Dangote Cement has a market capitalization of N3.65 trillion, while BUA posts a N2.49 trillion capitalization, but does size win?
I want to review the performance of the largest quoted companies in Nigeria.
On the Nigerian Stock Exchange, they don’t come any bigger than Dangote Cement (Dangote) and BUA Cement (BUA). Only MTNN stands with both cement companies in terms of market capitalization. Dangote and BUA are both blue-chip companies, in the same sector and both enjoy federal import protection, they also both serve a local market with huge demand for cement.
Which is a better investment? Let us assume I have N100,000.00 (One Hundred Thousand Naira,) which should I buy? Let us review both stocks with FY 2020 results they posted. For consistency, I am going to use my trading view terminal numbers.
First, we talk about capitalization, (Market cap is the number of shares issued x market value of shares ). Dangote Cement has a market capitalization of N3.65 trillion, while BUA posts a N2.49 trillion capitalization. Does size win? Dangote is bigger? Not yet!
With N100,000 I can buy about 465 shares of Dangote at N215 a share and 1,360 shares of BUA at N73.50 per share. Is BUA cheaper? do we have a winner? Not quite. Let us dig deeper.
Dangote Cement posted a Net Income figure of N276 billion, if we divide this earning by the number of issued shares which is 17 billion, we get an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of N16.14, so every share of Dangote Cement earns (not pays) the investors N16. Similarly, the Earning Per Share of BUA is N2.0
Thus when I buy Dangote Cement N215 per share, I am buying 16 times the earnings of Dangote. We can simplify this by simply comparing the price I pay per share of Dangote to the EPS of Dangote (Price to Earnings Ratio), thus I invest my cash of N215 to buy 16 times the earnings of Dangote, thus the Price to Earnings Ratio of Dangote is 13.31 (P/E). Using the same calculation, the price for each earnings of BUA (the P.E.) is 35.38. This means even though I am paying more cash for each share of Dangote, I am paying less to buy the earnings of Dangote, thus Dangote is cheaper than BUA.
So our first milestone is reached, we have used the Net Income, Market Price, and Number of Issued shared to get the Earnings Per Share, we have then determined what amount of earnings we are buying to determine which stock is at a bargain.
Let us look at the earnings that will be paid in cash. Remember, Earnings, is just the Net Income of Dangote, we as equity holders have the opportunity to share in any portion of the Net Income.
Dangote in 2020 paid out from earnings N272.69 billion as dividends, this translates to about N16 per share or in terms of returns 7.44%. We get this Dividend Yield return by comparing the dividend paid to the market price per share (D/P). BUA also in 2020 paid out N59.26 billion as dividends from earnings, this translates to a dividend yield of 2.81%.
So, if I invested N100,000 in shares of Dangote Cement, I would earn a cash return of 7.44%, if I did the same with BUA I would earn a cash return of 2.81%.
Let us go a bit deeper…
When you buy a stock, you are buying into the earnings and cash flow. Dangote Cement in 2020 earned N276 billion and paid N272 billion as dividends meaning they retained about N3 billion for that FY while generating over N248b in Free Cash Flow. Similarly, BUA earned a net N71.52 billion, paid out N59 billion in dividends, retained N19 billion but posted a negative Free Cash Flow of (N95.49 billion). Should BUA cement have simply used that cash to finance working capital rather than paying it as dividends? Perhaps. Let us speak more of Cash flow.
Cash retained is cash not paid to you the investor. You have to ask how well your company is utilizing that cash retained. Should it all be paid out as dividends? Or retained in the company to fund expansion and growth?
Look at it this way, if Federal Government Bonds were offering a Yield of 15% and we see that Dangote is offering a yield of 7.44%, then as shareholders you should demand that Dangote pays more cash to you to allow you to invest in FGN bonds because you get a higher return (at lower risk). The point is any company retaining cash or paying cash at a lower yield than the market is hurting the investors, who are missing the opportunity of investing higher elsewhere.
Let us score both company managers by how well they have managed the revenues and capital of the companies
|Return on Assets %||Return on Equity %||Return on Invested Capital %||EBITA Margin %||Net Margin %||Debt to Assets||Long Term Debt to Assets|
Across the board, the management of Dangote Cement has done a better job when compared to BUA Cement in managing the assets of the company. Dangote Return on invested capital is higher with a much lower recourse to debt and of course a higher FCF number.
Overall, on Earning, Returns and Efficiency, it appears Dangote Cement posts better fundamentals…
There is a wealth of information that should help decide whether you should buy a stock or not and how long you can hold on to it. Our recommendation is based on the information we currently have and is wholly the opinion of the writer
This article is an investment guide and as such you should conduct extra analysis before deciding whether to buy, sell or hold a stock. The decision to buy, sell or hold a stock is solely yours.
Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede’s Leaving the Tarmac: Buying a Bank in Africa – A review
This book is a simplified workbook for those of us who would like to go into the very tricky act of revamping a dying or dead brand.
What first catches your attention in this book is its unique title. What has leaving the tarmac got to do with the expected subject of the book or with the personality of its author? Your interest is stimulated nonetheless because you know that there would be some sort of tie.
The straight-to-the-point mannerism of the recollection holds you from the very start with the introduction by former President Olusegun Obasanjo. The influential statesman’s quick question about the accuracy of the book and the affirmative response of the author, which led to Obasanjo assertion that the author must have stepped on some toes since every true story comes with the good, the bad and the ugly, immediately excites your taste buds as you anticipate what the “ugly” in the book might be.
Very early in the book, you begin to link the title to the very core of the story. The author narrates his turmoil in missing his flight back to school due to the endemic corruption and inefficiency that characterized the aviation industry at that time. He states boldly and you will all agree, that this cankerworm permeates the system leading to all sort of dislocation and inefficiencies. The link is cleverly woven into the fabric of this book and his forays in business. At every conjecture, the experience as a young secondary school leaver at the Tarmac is thrown in and used as fuel to ensure that once again, he would not be left at the tarmac.
The challenges that come with operating in a heavily regulated environment controlled by strong forces, in this wise, the Central Bank, the constant struggle to align or at best position a driving personal and corporate vision to the constantly moving pieces that is public policy, especially at the level of fiscal and monetary controls, leaves the reader in awe of the duo who took upon themselves, the herculean task of building an internationally respectable financial brand.
The prose is simple, sweet and engaging. Aig speaks circumspectly and moves from topic to topic with the ease of a ballerina. As he mentions the issues, you are tempted to dig deeper but the mastery of his delivery keeps you flowing along with him as he shares his story.
My most engaging moment was the meeting between Aig, Herbert and their bosses at GTB. I had been anticipating this meeting since I started reading the book. The duo had gone very far in the acquisition process, had raised a considerable amount of money and were coasting to the point of no return when this meeting held. I was expecting more details, more gist but as is his style in this book, the epoch-making meeting was glossed over.
I would have wanted a fly on the wall description of that meeting. Was Aig scared? Was Herbert jittery? Did Fola scream? Did he beg? Were there threats? Was it a shouting match? Did anyone kneel to say, ‘don’t vex?’ I craved that drama from the book and didn’t get it.
Did this book tell us how to buy a bank in Africa or how a bank was even bought in Africa? I will say, not too well. The acquisition of Access Bank was dealt with in a hurry and even the role of BGL, the mercurial Investment Bank led by the late influential Albert Okumagba was also dealt with in a flash. I suspect that BGL people would not find this part very exciting as the story of the acquisition is stuff that is passed down generations in BGL.
Aigboje’s mettle is on display immediately after the bank is acquired. His confidence grows as he talks about the value chain strategy. A strategy he attributes the initial success to. From MTN to Dangote, the strategy enabled the nascent bank to capture a huge market share from these conglomerates, stabilizing it and justifying the confidence reposed on both himself and Herbert by critical stakeholder groups. Confidence that the man at the Banking Supervision of the CBN took almost forever to build.
This book is a simplified workbook for those of us who would like to go into the very tricky act of revamping a dying or dead brand. I tried and failed woefully ending up in an EFCC cell. For Aigboje and Herbert to take a run of the mill brand and build it into what it is today is not only remarkable but almost something of a miracle in this terrain. The meat of the book is all about this.
Here Aigboje finds himself as he floats and flies in his descriptive turn. He takes us through it all – visioning, clarity, Board building, risk management, capital management, strategy, human capital and much more importantly, his partnership with Herbert who came out in this book as dependable, bringing tremendous value to the table and making the succession plan almost seamless.
You do not sense any friction between the duo. You sense a clear understanding and mutual respect. You do not sense ambition on the part of Herbert and you see a careful portrayal of the respect Aigboje has for Herbert in this book. This to me is the success of Access Bank far and above every other thing you put in to build the brand.
One thing that kept jumping at me as I read, was the outsider mentality that never left Aigboje as he narrated his experience. The meetings at the CBN where he averred that some people already had an inkling into some of those earth shifting policies, his fear of being left on the tarmac again; but you come out of every summon to the CBN with relief that once again he was prepared. The issue of the clearing bank is an example. You will have to read the book very carefully at this point to understand the details.
Just as you are about to consign yourself to the beauty of the narrative that is the building of a bank, getting to start your review with a harsh critique of the book not being about buying any African bank, you are suddenly dropped at the feet of a second acquisition – that of the Intercontinental Bank.
Here Aigboje has found himself. His experiences during the first acquisition come to the fore. His pen gets stronger as he analyses the reasons behind the acquisition, the process itself, the advisers on the transaction and the post-acquisition challenges – human capital, technology, integration, market perception, and regulatory issues. Here, you find a more than ready Aigboje.
But here too, the story doesn’t do much for an entry-level Investment Banker looking for practical experience on M&A but goes ahead to give a world-class narrative on post-acquisition management of a super complex structure.
He finally closes the book on his thoughts and actions in the area of sustainability. Aigboje has been phenomenal in this area, working assiduously to support, entrench and work with like minds both locally and internationally in ensuring the very best in class push towards sustainability. This, I want to dare say, may have driven his resolve to leave Access Bank at the time he did, which was a clear two years from when he should have.
This book in my estimation cautiously opened Aigboje to his readers. He was careful to keep the reader in the realm he wants them to be which is the topic of the book. Buying a bank and not other more exciting areas like his personal life, his regrets, his family life, etc. Only once was his wife and children mentioned and this was as an illustration in trying to drive home a point during his take on work-life balance.
The only other time was in the first chapter in a discussion with his mother. Aigboje successfully guards his privacy, remaining formal and almost warning the reader to focus on the topic. You will not see Aigboje relax in this book, you will not see him eat at his favourite restaurant or know the kind of music he loves to listen to. In another book which he may write someday, perhaps, but certainly not in this one.
In conclusion, despite my issues with the title, this was a wonderful book. It took me less than 24 hours to finish its 217 pages but another three days to write this review because I was challenged as to what angle to tackle it from.
It was a beautiful read, written with precision, clarity and accuracy that gives it the authenticity it truly deserves.
I give it a five star and would be recommending it not only for budding investment bankers and vision-driven leaders but to the general population as it carefully explains the ethos of what I want to call a followership driven renaissance in our society in the face of the woeful reliance on tepid leadership. A powerful read.
Nairametrics | Company Earnings
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- Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc announces AGM, proposes dividend of N6.74 per share.
- ETI appoints Akin Dada as Group Executive, Corporate & Investment banking.
- Union Homes REIT proposes final dividend worth N465.03 million for shareholders.
- GT Bank Plc holds FY 2020 investors presentation.
- Cornerstone Insurance Plc notifies stakeholders of late submission of financial statements.