In spite of the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Lagos State Government recorded a 56% budget performance in Q1 2020 with N163.2 billion in revenue, N14.9 billion more than Q1 2019.

This performance, according to the Lagos State Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Mr. Sam Egube, “is higher than the 68% (N148.3 billion) recorded for the same period in 2019.”

Speaking at the press briefing on Wednesday, Egube noted that the downside of the COVID-19 pandemic had necessitated a 21% reduction in the go-forward budget size, to make the budget realistic.

In preparation for the post-COVID-19 economy, the government is working out terms to harness public and private investments towards creating a strong mixed-sector economy, expanding social services, and environmental stability.

(READ MORE:Lagos State partners Microsoft to train 18,000 teachers)

According to Egube, “the government will also restart the Lagos State economy by focusing on job creation, economic stabilisation, and fiscal consolidation, in addition to re-imagining the way Lagos operates, focusing on digitisation, business environment reforms and economic diversification.”

All of these are geared towards neutralizing the adverse effects of the pandemic on the economic planning of the state, and building a strong response focused on food security, economic intervention, and public safety.

The government had also assured that the impact of the pandemic on the economy of Lagos state will be minimal, as palliatives have been structured to ensure that residents thrive beyond the crisis.

The State govt has said that the impact of COVID-19 on the State’s economy will be very minimal, assuring residents that the present administration has developed a holistic plan to ensure that Lagos thrives during and beyond the crisis#LASG
Read More.. https://t.co/D5HKLLIvUD pic.twitter.com/9EoGkvS6zK

— The Lagos State Govt (@followlasg) June 3, 2020

Creating a resilience committee

The commissioner added that during Q1 2020, the government inaugurated the Lagos State Resilience Committee which worked with the ministry of economic planning and budget to assess the state and develop a resilience strategy.

(READ MORE:COVID-19: Lagos receives N200 Million, 5 ambulances from BUA Foundation)

“The initiative is aimed at improving the resilience of the State and its ability to bounce back from adversity”, Egube explained.

The strategy entails building “efficient power, effective mass transit systems, access to potable water and key infrastructure to support a growing economy and achieve social progress”. 

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to rise as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 11,166 confirmed cases.

On the 3rd of June 2020, 348 new confirmed cases and 1 death were recorded in Nigeria.

To date, 11166 cases have been confirmed, 3329 cases have been discharged and 315 deaths have been recorded in 35 states and the Federal Capital Territory having carried out 69,801 tests.

Covid-19 Case Updates- 3rd June 2020

• Total Number of Cases – 11,166
• Total Number Discharged – 3,329
• Total Deaths – 315
• Total Tests Carried out – 69,801

The 348 new cases are reported from 19 states- Lagos (163), FCT (76), Ebonyi (23), Rivers (21), Delta (8), Nasarawa (8), Niger (8), Enugu(6), Bauchi (5), Edo(5), Ekiti (5), Ondo (5), Gombe (5), Benue(4), Ogun (2), Osun (1), Plateau (1), Kogi (1), Anambra (1).

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

The latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 5440, followed by Kano (970), Abuja at 763, Katsina (371), Edo (341), Oyo (317), Kaduna (297), Borno (296), Ogun (282), Jigawa (274), Rivers (269), Bauchi (246),  Gombe (169), Sokoto (115).

Kwara State has recorded 111 cases, Plateau (109), Delta (106), Nasarawa (88), Zamfara (76), Ebonyi (63), Yobe (52), Osun (47), Akwa Ibom (45), Adamawa (42), Niger (41), Imo (39), Kebbi and Ondo (33), Ekiti (25), Enugu (24), Bayelsa (21), Taraba (18), Abia (15), Benue (13), Anambra (12), while Kogi state has recorded only 3 cases.

Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two-weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

The stage is set for OPEC+ to virtually meet on the 4^th of June to discuss the extension of output cuts. The previous agreement on curbs resulted in a historic reduction of 9.7m barrels per day. Compliance has been commendable even to the point where some nations started shutting production before the effective date. The meeting in April was an emergency meeting after the diplomatic intervention by Donald Trump, who needed to save the energy industry in the United States.

This week’s meeting does not have any dramatic buildup to it (although the date has been brought forward to factor certain fundamentals). Still, there is a consensus or belief that the meeting will be successful, which is why prices have soared in the last couple of days. On Tuesday, Oil prices closed in on three-month highs because of the positive anticipation that OPEC+ producers would conclude in the extension of the production cuts at the forthcoming meeting. Brent Oil broke the $39 range, which has not been feasible since March.

READ ALSO: Subsidy and PIB

But energy analysts and traders familiar with the history of OPEC meetings know very well that surprises and disagreements can spring up during the sessions and can negatively affect prices. To recall the last two meetings, the first meeting in March that led to the crash of prices from $50 to $32 after the discord between Russia and Saudi Arabia were Russia did not believe cuts were necessary to salvage the demand destruction caused by the coronavirus. The second meeting, which is the more recent, featured a Mexican standoff were Mexico would defiantly not accept their part in the global cuts. It took efforts by Trump (again) to agree to shoulder some of the cuts imposed on Mexico.

Skeptics believe Russia might be this week’s party pooper. Russia has always been the black sheep in the OPEC+ family as they tend to ever deviate from consensual commitment concerning the oil market. On Wednesday, Oil was observed to retreat by more than 4%, after reports suggested that Russia was mulling over easing production cuts as planned in July. Russian Minister, Novak expressed how the country expects global supply and demand to balance in June and July. This optimism is shared amongst Russian industry players who have felt the pains of output cuts, especially producers who must maneuver shutting down many wells without causing damage to the oil fields.  To be fair, Russia is responsible for about a quarter of the total OPEC+ cuts and prices at these levels still negatively impacts the Russian budget.

READ MORE: Global oil market to re-balance in 2 months’ time

Although scaling back curbs is line with the OPEC+ deal and demand picking up globally as expressed by the Russian Energy Minister is true, it would be a classic tale of Russian Roulette if countries ease back on production cuts. The market demand must fully recover. There is still a shortage demand for consumption for jet fuel as airlines are not operating at normal levels, with experts saying it would take years before the airline industry recovers. History suggests we should be cautious with Russia. Moscow is solely interested in increasing market share and winning its veiled rivalry with U.S shale oil.  In the short-term, Russia’s defiance in February is why we are at these levels.

It is no surprise that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and United States President Donald Trump individually have had calls with Russia’s President on the need for coordination and cooperation in the oil markets days before the OPEC+ meeting. It seems that these discussions have been positive, and prices have reacted in this manner. Head of Oil market analysis at Rystad Energy, Bjornar Tonhaugen affirmed that “at this stage, there are two only variables that can significantly move prices, which are “Hints on the direction at this meeting and the outcome, and the rate of the shut production’s reactivation.”

READ ALSO: Ajaokuta’s completion to kick off as Russia provides funds

Oil Bear traders would be monitoring this meeting; any sign of disagreement would be treated with selling pressure. However, a successful meeting does not mean an immediate rise in price because the success has already been “priced in.” Hopefully, we have a successful meeting. Oil prices need back to back rallies to sustain its ascension to the top. Nigeria needs this, the OPEC cartel needs this, Shale oil companies need this, and the Kremlin budget needs this too.