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Markets

Buy/Sell/Hold for the week ending 8th of June 2018

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Buy/Sell/Hold is a weekly column which samples opinions on a variety of stocks, that are picked from gainers and losers of the previous week, as well as analyst reports by several investment houses.

Here are the stocks on our list for the week ending 8th June 2018.

Eterna Oil: HOLD

Latest results: Results for the first quarter ended March 2018 show that revenue increased from N51.9 billion in 2017 to N54.3 billion in 2018. Profit before tax, however, dropped from N1 billion in 2017 to N750 million in 2018. Profit after tax also dropped from N681 million in 2017 to N510 million in 2018.

Current Share Price: N6.64

Price Earnings ratio: 4.11x

Price to Book ratio: 0.69

Year-to-date: 63.55%

One year return: 97%

External View: Nil

Our view: Eterna Oil is a HOLD in Nairametrics’ view. The stock is currently trading at a lower PE ratio compared to other firms in the sector such as Total, which is trading at 9.7 times earnings, and Forte Oil which is trading 19.7 times earnings.

The stock is also trading at less than 10% below its year high of N7.

Unilever: HOLD

Latest results: Results for the first quarter ended March 2018 show that revenue increased from N22.1 billion in 2017 to N25.8 billion in 2018. Profit before tax also moved from N2.1 billion in 2017 to N3.9 billion in 2018. Profit after tax also jumped from N1.6 billion in 2017 to N2.8 billion in 2018.

Current Share Price: N51.45

Price Earnings ratio: 27.53

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Price to Book ratio: 3.75

Year-to-date: 25.49%

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One Year return: 52.3%

External View:

Analysts at FBNQuest have an Underperform rating on Unilever. They have a target price of N43.1 which is 16.2% lower than the N51.5 price as at when the report was prepared.

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Analysts at Afrinvest have a Sell rating on the stock. They have a 12-month target price of N42.46 which is 13.3% lower than its current price of N49 as at when the report was prepared.

Our View

Nairametrics regards Unilever as a HOLD The stock is currently trading 15.7% below its year high of N64.6

International Breweries

Latest Results: Results for the first quarter ended March 2018 show that the company made N25.9 billion as revenue. Profit before tax stood at N1 billion, while the firm made a loss after tax of N2.2 billion.

Current Share Price: N39.00

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Price Earnings ratio: 40.05X

Price to Book ratio: 9.29

Year-to-date: -28.44%

One Year return: 61.22%

External view

Analysts at FBNQuest have a Neutral rating on the stock. They have a target price of N47 per share which indicates an upside of 17.9% from the stock’s price of N40.02 as at when the report was prepared.

Our View

International Breweries is a SELL in our opinion. The stock is trading at a premium compared to its peers like Guinness, which is trading at 18 times earnings and Nigerian Breweries, which is trading at 26 times earnings.

The stock is currently trading 39% below its year high of N64. Current market sentiments mean that the stock could witness further correction this week.

Union Bank: SELL

Latest Results: Gross earnings increased from N34.3 billion in 2017 to N39.4 billion in 2018. Profit before tax increased from N4.6 billion in 2017 to N5.4  billion in 2018. Profit after tax also increased from N4.5 billion in 2017 to N5.2 billion in 2018.

Current Share Price: N5.63

Price Earnings ratio: 7.62X

Price to Book ratio: 0.55

Year-to-date: -32.05%

One Year return: 9.62%

External View

Analysts at Afrinvest have a REDUCE rating on the stock. They have a 12-month target price of N5.65 which is 7.4% less than N6.10 at which the report was prepared.

Our view

Union Bank is a SELL in our opinion. The stock is trading at a premium compared to bigger tier two banks such as Fidelity which is trading at 1.56 times earnings and FCMB trading at 4.26 times earnings.


This is not a buy sell or hold recommendation. Remember to consult a competent financial analyst or stockbroker if you need help with your investment decisions.

 

Onome Ohwovoriole has a degree in Economics and Statistics from the University of Benin and prior to joining Nairametrics in December 2016 as Lead Analyst had stints in Publishing, Automobile Services, Entertainment and Leadership Training.He covers companies in the Nigerian corporate space, especially those listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).He also has a keen interest in new frontiers like Cryptocurrencies and Fintech. In his spare time, he loves to read books on finance, fiction as well as keep up with happenings in the world of international diplomacy.You can contact him via [email protected]

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Stock Market

Banking Index slumps to 375.35 Index points, as Sterling and Wema shares lose over 10%

The NSE Banking Index in the first week of March declined by 1.94% to close at 375.35 index points.

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Global stocks sell-off persists as resurgence of COVID-19 frighten investors 

The Nigerian Stock Exchange Banking Index at the close of trading activities in the first week of March, declined by 1.94% to close at 375.35 index points.

This is according to data from the Nigerian Stock Exchange, seen by Nairametrics.

The slump was due to the underperformance of most banking stocks during the week, notably, Sterling and Wema Bank which recorded the worst decline of 14.04% and 12.70% respectively, for the period under review.

This loss placed the aforementioned banks in the top 10 decliners for the week. It is also pertinent to note that only Unity Bank (among the listed banking stocks) emerged in NSE top 10 gainers for the week, with a share price appreciation of 8.96%.

Nairametrics had earlier reported that investors in the elite banks in Nigeria (FUGAZ) lost a total of N34.68 billion in a single trading session on Thursday, 4th of March 2021, due to downward pressure on their respective share prices caused by sell-offs.

On the other hand, the Financial Services Industry led the activity chart by volume with 1.63 billion shares valued at N10.73 billion traded in 13,269 deals; thus contributing 78.06% and 36.06% to the total equity turnover volume and value respectively.

What you should know:

  • The NSE Banking Index had earlier appreciated by 0.69% to close at 382.76 index points, last week.
  • On a general note, the NSE All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.18% to close the week at 39,331.61 and N20.578 trillion respectively.
  • Trading in the top three equities namely Wema Bank Plc, Axamansard Insurance Plc, and Zenith Bank Plc (measured by volume) accounted for 903.561 million shares worth N5.564 billion in 4,017 deals.
  • A total turnover of 2.092 billion shares worth N29.744 billion in 24,238 deals were traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange.

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Stock Market

How instability in the FX market trigger foreign investors apathy in Nigeria’s equities market

Chukwu has explained how foreign exchange crises have negatively impacted foreign investors’ sentiment in Nigeria’s equities market.

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The Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Asset Management, Mr Johnson Chukwu, has explained how a combination foreign exchange crises have negatively impacted foreign investors’ sentiment in Nigeria’s equities market.

The analysis was in response to the recent Nigerian Stock Exchange’s Domestic and Foreign Portfolio Investment Report for January 2021, which showed that domestic participation in the equities market outperformed foreign transactions, as the latter could only account for 20% of the total market activities.

The report further indicated a downward trend in the share of foreign participation in the equities market, from about 51% in 2018 to 20% as at January 2021.

Reacting to the development, Mr Chukwu in an interview with Arise TV blamed the combination of FX liquidity crisis and instability of the Nigerian foreign exchange market as underlying causes for the downward trajectory.

He said: ‘’If you look at the trend in the past three years, you will observe that foreign portfolio investment into Nigerian equities market has been declining. In 2018, it was 51% of the entire market, so they actually trumped local investors. By 2019, it declined to 49%, implying that the local investors had trumped them. However in 2020, they only accounted for 34% of the entire market, it further came down to 20% by January 2020. Of course, we know those factors that are driving away foreign portfolio investment in the country, and until those factors are addressed, we are likely to see the trend continue.”

On how FX instability and illiquidity contributed to the decline, Mr Chukwu remarked that: “The main factor that drive foreign inflow into the economy is the liquidity in the FX market. Foreign investors want to be able to convert back to their foreign currencies when they want to exit. If there is no liquidity in the FX market, foreign portfolio investors stay away from the market. As you know, the Nigeria FX market witnessed locking of foreign portfolio investors who sold their investments and wanted to exit, but they could not access FX to exit. So because those people couldn’t exit, new investors couldn’t come in. You can’t really go into a market when people are trapped.

“Another factor that could influence them is the stability or predictability of the exchange rate. But the most important factor is the liquidity in the FX market. If you look at the year, these foreign portfolio investments were impressive, oil price was quite strong, for example in 2018, they brought in about N1.2 trillion accounting for 51% of the market activities.”

On the flip side, Mr Chukwu explained why local investors’ participation has been growing. He attributed the increase to the collapse of interest rates and the impressive returns posted by the NSE last year.

‘’The basic thing that happened was that because local interest rates collapsed last year and they remain very low even in January, , local investors particularly institutional investors are underweighting their portfolios in fixed income and overweighting them in equities. When interest rates are very low, investors will switch to the instruments that will give them high yield and in this instance, variable income assets like equities and that was what happened last year and is still happening now,’’ he said.

What you should know

  • Nairametrics reported that despite a bullish run of the NSE in 2020, total investments in the Nigerian stock market as at January 2021 dipped by 13.7% M-o-M.
  • Total foreign transactions as at the aforementioned period stood at N47.52 billion, while domestic transactions stood at N184.94 billion.

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