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Bottom Line: Honeywell smells really good but….

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Photo by James Sutton on Unsplash

Two years ago, Honeywell was facing a financial crisis, the type it had not faced in recent times. It reported a loss of N3 billion and was saddled with debts it struggled to repay as and when due. The year before it saw its profits decline by 66% to N1.1 billion. Honeywell had achieved steady growth in earnings growth over preceding three years before the 2015 blip. Incidentally, the Nigerian economy was in a tailspin and it was easy to pin the blame on the ensuing recession.

The 2016 loss of N3 billion was hard to chew as it depleted its retained earnings to N5.9 billion. Honeywell had to do something fast if it was to remain profitable and financially solvent. The last thing it needed was distractions bothering on its fundamentals, especially when it operated in a very competitive space. It quickly revalued its assets and gained about N32 billion in revaluation surplus. That was enough to give its balance sheet a semblance of strength and allow it face its two of the main challenges; Revenue growth and input cost.

Between 2015 and 2016 Honeywell’s Gross Profit Margins dropped to 15% and 8% respectively. This compared to the 18.8% it reported in 2014 when it posted an impressive profit after tax of N3.3 billion, the highest in the last 5 years. To return to its pre-2015 margins it will have to reign in on cost by increasing sales. Its most recent interim results suggest it has achieved this.

In its 2017 annual report, the company reported a gross profit margin of 23.8% as sales climbed 4.3% while the cost of sales dropped 12.9%. It also reduced operating expenses relying on the savings as a cushion for its ballooning interest cost. The same strategy has been followed in the current year as its 9 Months results released in December showed revenue rose 44% while gross margin was 23%. The spike in revenue filtered all the way to bottom line and pending its full-year result expected any time soon, earnings per share is currently at 35kobo. Consider the fact that, it was 17kobo this time last year.

Honeywell has two business segment, Apapa, and Ikeja and it seems its future is dependent on what happens in its Ikeja segment. Honeywell’s Apapa division oversees its more profitable arm, the flour business while the Ikeja division is where operations of its loss-making Pasta making business is located. Of the N11 billion in operating profit it reported last year, N10 billion alone came from Apapa. Currently, Ikeja is operating at a loss while Apapa again is leading the charge with N7 billion in operating profit.

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While results from the Ikeja division is disturbing, the fact that it relies only on one-half of its business operations for all its profits indicates just how much potential the company has. The company expects its new factory in Ogun State to come on stream this year (earlier scheduled for 2018 Q1). The factory is projected to raise the total installed capacity of the company by 150% at its completion and will include 4 pasta lines with an installed capacity of 125,000 metric tonnes. Will this all translate to a better bottom line? Perhaps yes, but not in the short-term. The company will still need to rely on its Flour business for another year or two before it starts to reap the benefit of investing billions in a new factory.

For now, the improvement in the fundamentals of the company suggests the company may possess some upside for a potential rally. Trading at a price-earnings multiple of 4.55 to its trailing twelve months earnings per share, the stock appears cheap when compared to Flourmills Nigeria at 7.73 and Dangote Flour at 4.24x. It is also trading at a huge discount to its book value (0.36) all pointers to its potential upsides. Year to date the stock is up 17% and 49% off its year high of N3.7.

But there are concerns. The company is heavily indebted and still has a spat with Ecobank to resolve conclusively. Revenues, which it so needs to continue growing dropped drastically in the third quarter ending December 2017. There is palpable fear that this could continue into the fourth quarter.

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If it is to reward shareholders with capital appreciation, then it will have to declare not less than 25 kobo in dividends when it eventually releases its results. Is that even possible? At 25 kobo it will have to shell out about N1.9 billion in cash. It has about N14 billion in cash though without factoring its existing loans. It also has a retained earnings of N12 billion (less N32 billion in Revaluation Surplus) to support this case.

Bottom Line

Honeywell smells good enough for a stock good but we are not sure if it tastes as good as it smells. Its much-anticipated 4th quarter results could leave a bad taste in the mouth of investors especially if it misses its revenue estimates and fails to reward shareholders with impressive dividends. However, the smell is good enough for me to consider placing an order.


Note: This is not a recommendation to buy sell or hold this stock. Please read our disclaimer policy. Ugodre does not own any shares in Honeywell Plc and does intend to buy any within 48 hours of writing this article.

Ugo Obi-chukwu "Ugodre" is a chartered accountant with over 16 years experience in financial management, corporate finance and financial analysis. He is also a retail investor and a personal finance advocate with over a decade experience investing in the Nigerian stock market. Ugo is the founder/Publisher of Nairametrics and blogs regularly on the website.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Yusman

    April 17, 2018 at 7:18 am

    Ideally, when u conclude an analysis like this and make a recommendation, u should add a note stating if u have any interest in company u analysed. Bcos right now ur motives could be to move prices so u can cash out…?!?

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Blurb

#ENDSARS Protests: Why this is different

The #ENDSARS is not just a protest about rogue police officers, it is larger than that and this is why.

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In June 2019, the Hong Kong Government revealed plans to implement a controversial law that allows the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to mainland China.  

As the government dithered, pockets of protests broke out, which triggered clashes with Policemen that most protesters viewed as excessive. Within days, protesters went from a few thousands to over 2 million, the largest in the history of Hong Kong.  

By the time the government decided to pull back the bill; the protesters, many of them young, were already demanding for more than just a withdrawal of the bill. They wanted the police investigated and prosecuted for using excessive force, amnesty for protesters, and a right to vote for all.  

The protests lasted for about 6 months only to be dissipated by social distancing requirements, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Before then, protesters had grounded the economy, which drove the Hong Kong economy into a recession and $3 billion in stimulus.  

Nigeria is experiencing its own version of protests similar to that of Hong Kong, except that it does not have any money to inject as stimulus. The latest protests were triggered by anger over the alleged violent killings and extortion by the controversial anti-robbery unit of the police, known as SARS or FSARS.  

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For years, young Nigerians, mostly via social media, have called for the unit to be disbanded and rogue elements in the force brought to justice. Despite repeated promises by the government, they have failed to heed to their demands, triggering a new wave of protests that has now spread across the country. 

From demanding an end to SARS, prosecution of rogue police officers, and reforms; Protesters are more emboldened, threatening to continue if all their demands are not met. The government is scrambling to contain a situation that is escalating and could dangerously metamorphose into violent clashes with authorities, leading to loss of lives and destruction of properties 

There is also fear that this week’s protest could be sustained for more days, if not weeksYou only need to look at the economy of the Nigerian Youth to understand why this is such a critical moment. 

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According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, Youth unemployment is at an all-time high of 34.9%, making up 64.3% of total unemployed Nigerians. University students have also been at home for months, due to the 7 months ASUU strike.  

Their parents are also facing tougher economic conditions with inflation rate galloping past 13%, after multiple devaluations and the removal of fuel subsidy. It was just a matter of time for them to find a rallying point to vent their frustration. 

There is still a window for the government to deescalate tensions, and it is not just by accepting the terms of protesters on paper and making bogus pronouncements. Nigerian youths want concrete actions and it starts by making immediate changes in the leadership of the Police – the rogue unit in particular. Officers suspected of murdering innocent Nigerians need to be made to face justice.  

The government also needs to urgently resolve its dispute with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) on the Integrated Payroll and Personnel Information System (IPPIS). Students and young Nigerians also need to be offered grants and palliatives to help them cushion the effects of an economic crunch that is in no way their making.  

Proceeds from the Nigerian Youth Investment Funds should be disbursed immediately to those who have applied. The government also needs to introduce student loan schemes for millions of Nigerian youths, who can’t afford to pay for quality university education.  

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The National Assembly also needs to introduce laws that protect young Nigerians from police brutality, status profiling and wrongful arrest. Investments in mega tech hubs across the country, establishment of recreation zones in major cities must be carried out by State Governments, to keep them engaged in activities that can better their lives.  

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No investor, local or foreign will put money in any country where its youths are in long-drawn protest with the governmentAs the economic cost of the protests for the last few days continues to mountthe negative effects could be more dire than a deeper recession. 

#ENDSARS does not just represent a protest against rogue Police officers; it is a symptom of the poor state of the economy, which for months has only gotten worse. Fortunately, the agitation can still be managed but time is running out.  

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Thrive Agric: “Where is my money?”

AgriTech firms make promises of mouth-watering returns, but what they do not reveal loud enough is just how risky the investment is.

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Fund a farmer, make a profit! Thus, says Thrive Agric, a popular AgriTech company that crowdsources funds from investors in exchange for a profit. The business model appears simple and easy for any basic investor to understand.

When you invest through them, they pool your funds along with other investors and then invest the collective sums in farms across the country. When the farmers harvest, they sell the farm produce at a profit, receive the cash, and split among investors who contributed to the pool. The company keeps a commission for itself. It all makes business sense, except for one thorny challenge – It is highly risky.

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Last week, a Twitter user posted a tweet demanding a refund of his investment in Thrive Agric – almost a million naira. The company lamented that they could not pay him, because they had experienced losses due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The investor was taking none of the excuses, resulting in a name and shame on twitter that has since gone viral.

READ: Nigeria’s Broadband subscriptions peak at 82.7m – Prof. Danbatta

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AgriTech Investments as they have come to be known has gained popularity as a viable investment option for Nigerians, who are still afraid of investing in the stock market. The largely unregulated sector leverages technology, an easy and relatable business model, and the promise of a mouth-watering return to yield-hungry investors. What they however do not reveal loud enough is just how risky the investment is.

Farming in a country like Nigeria is a highly risky venture that relies on a value chain that is fragmented, full of middlemen, and largely inefficient. Nigeria’s average yield per hectare is one of the lowest in the world, largely due to lack of farming inputs such as fertilizer, irrigation, and insecurity.

READ: We wanted to help users pay themselves first – Piggyvest

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AgriTech firms like Thrive Agric face these risks when they pool money from investors and pass on to farmers. Though part of their role in the investment scheme includes monitoring how the funds are utilized by farmers, they have no control over several risk factors such as the impact of COVID-19, which they alluded to as the challenges for not being able to pay investors.

Perhaps, if they disclose the inherent risks in the business, investors will be better informed and size up their risk against the returns. A cursory look at the company’s website reveals there is nowhere that it is mentioned that there is a risk of not getting all or part of your money when you invest. It probably would ruin the pitch if they did.

READ: Livestock Feeds: How this company survived over half a century producing animal feed

This is why when you visit their website and that of their competitors like Farmcrowdy (who pioneered this business) what you see are testimonials of just how well the investments are doing. You could argue that they had not defaulted in any of their previous rounds, so there was no need to say otherwise.

However, alerting investors about the inherent risks in a crowdsource investment scheme is not only responsible but a matter of best practice and compliance. The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), noted this in its draft Exposure on Proposed News Rules guiding crowdfunding. Section 9a (iv) states that the crowdfunding company is expected to share a general risk warning on participating in funding through the company’s platform.

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READ: Where to invest your N5m to N500m safely and securely

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It also requires in Section 14 that they must publish on their website that “Investing through an online portal is risky and Issuers raising funds through the portal include new or rapidly growing ventures,” and that “Investment in the businesses hosted on the portal is very speculative and carries high risks; Investors may lose their entire investment and must be in a position to bear this risk without undue hardship.” This proposed compliance requirement is not been done by most AgriTech firms.

If this had been published on its website and duly communicated to its potential investors, we may have avoided the embarrassing and reputation damaging question that any fund manager wants to avoid – “Where is my money?”, especially if they don’t have it.

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First Bank is cutting inefficiencies and focusing on its strengths

While the bank has everything to be thankful for, care should still be taken towards driving its growth objective.

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First bank, Dr. Adesola Adeduntan, CEO, FirstBank

Being the first entrant to any industry, no matter how lucrative, is only an advantage when there is zero competition. In the real world, for any business to stay in the game, it must constantly innovate, expand its market share, and carry out the necessary moves to survive the equally changing business and economic landscape. First Bank being the premier bank in West Africa has undoubtedly witnessed this change over time. If there is one thing the bank has done, it has stayed relevant through decades, even after many that came after it have fallen by the wayside.

READ: CAC to register companies within 48 hours, approve business name same day

The year 2020 had forced many businesses across the world to reassess their positions, and a strategy many have adopted is cost cutting – for good reasons. Given the economic and financial constraints with limited resources, cutting operational inefficiencies and focusing on areas that offer the best value has proven to be worth the effort for many. While the COVID-19 pandemic might not have had anything to do with FBN Holdings cutting off its risk underwriting business, FBN Insurance ltd, the company made the decision within the year and it couldn’t have come at a better time than when it did.

READ: FIDELITY BANK PLC: Frail earnings outlook but valuations still attractive

First Bank’s performance in Q2 2020

Like most companies, First Bank’s revenue (Net interest income) took a hit as stated in its Q2 2020 Y-O-Y results. Net interest income dropped by 7.34%, from N141.7 billion in Q2 2019 to N131.3 billion in Q2 2020, following significant reduction in investment securities over the quarter. Profit before tax grew by 14.3%, from N36.2 billion to N41.4 billion for the period under review. Profit after tax grew by 56.3%, from N31.6 billion to N49.5 billion year on year.

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READ: Nigerian Breweries’ Q1 earnings report shows profit decreased by 31.4% to N5.5 billion

Operating expenses also increased by 0.9% y-o-y from N137.9 billion to N139.2 billion; while it suffered impairment charge for credit losses of N30.7 billion from N22.1 billion in Q2 2019. Its Gross earnings increased by 5.8% to N296.4 billion, from N280.3 billion in the period under review.

Divesting from its risk underwriting arm and its capital injection

FBN Holdings completely divested from its risk underwriting arm, completely selling off its 65% stake in FBN Insurance Ltd to Sanlam Emerging Markets (Proprietary) Ltd. effective from June 1st, 2020.

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According to the group, “we successfully divested from the underwriting (insurance) businesses, to focus on our banking operations. We are confident this will enhance greater value to our stakeholders and strengthen the Group’s resolve to consolidate its leadership of the banking sector.”

READ: STANBIC IBTC posts Profit After Tax of N45.2 billion in H1 2020

This single action did many things for the bank. Following the divestment, the holding capital, FBN Holdings, had injected equity capital of N25 billion into the bank, thereby boosting its overall Capital Adequacy Ratio to 16.5% (excluding profit for H1 2020). In a similar vein, the bank’s total assets was boosted by 14.9% year-to-date from ₦6.2 trillion as at Dec 2019 to ₦7.1 trillion in June, 2020. By pumping the required capital into the bank, it was able to effectively mitigate the regulatory requirements that many banks have struggled with over the past few months. Not only does it have a comfortable buffer against regulatory requirements; it has the available financial resources to look out for emerging business opportunities, and fully deepen its strengths in its core business areas.

READ; Nike stocks post gains, women’s apparel division grow by 200%

While the bank has everything to be thankful for, with the play of events; care should still be taken towards driving its growth objective. In truth, its financial position excluding the capital injection does not particularly reveal new strengths. Hence, a false sense of security, given the current economic challenges amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and all the challenges it births, like possible increase in impairment provisions, ailing investments, and so on, could have the company dissipating its newly injected capital.

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READ: UBA Plc H1’2020 results, a true reflection of its rightsizing decision? 

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For investors, while an amazing growth opportunity does exist especially given its new resources, the best bet is to hold as a dividend stock, patiently waiting for its long-term growth strategies to play out in the years to come.

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