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Economy & Politics

What the latest Niger Delta threat means for your investments

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The relative peace enjoyed in Nigeria’s oil producing Niger Delta may be a thing of the past, if the latest threat by the Niger Delta Avengers is anything to go by. The militant group, in a release posted on its website, have threatened to attack Nigeria’s deep sea operations in the Niger Delta.

Possible targets mentioned in the post include Bonga Platform, Agbami, EA Field, Britania-U Field, Akpo Field; amongst others littered across the deep waters of the Niger Delta region. The  avengers also threatened to attack the  Egina FPSO.

What do the militants want ?

The militants are demanding the restructuring of the country, and control of crude oil resources. They also requested for the release of all militants arrested by the Federal Government. Previous ceasefires according to them, had not  yielded much benefit.

How does this affect you ?

A potential militant attack could have the following effect on investments and the economy as a whole.

1. Business shut down in the Niger Delta

A militant attack could lead to the few businesses operating in the Niger Delta shutting down. Businesses tend to form clusters in areas where oil exploration and production take place. Multinationals could decide to evacuate their staff and shut down pending when peace returns.

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2. Foreign exchange liquidity

A drop in crude oil revenue , in the event of an attack could lead to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tightening foreign exchange supply. Many businesses in the country are largely dependent on foreign exchange to purchase inputs and raw materials.

Multinationals that operate in the country, also require foreign exchange to repatriate their profits. A foreign exchange squeeze could lead to money being trapped in the country.

3. Cost of borrowing

A militant attack could affect the cost of borrowing externally. Nigeria ramped up her foreign exchange borrowing last year in order to take advantage of low interest rates and reduce the crowding out effect of the Federal Government on the domestic market. Several banks in the country also took advantage of the relative stability in the exchange rate to raise bonds.

Nigeria is largely depedent on crude oil income for her foreign exchange revenue. A militant attack could lead to an increased premium on foreign denominated loans for both government and the private sector.

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4. A possible devaluation

If the militant attacks become a reality and are severe, the CBN may be forced to devalue the Naira. This could throw financial projections for many companies into jeopardy, as they would have to spend more Naira servicing foreign loans.

5. Power Outage 

Militant attacks could also lead to power outage,as the militants could decide to attack critical gas pipelines. Militant attacks by one group,tend to lead to similar attacks by other groups. Power supply in the country had recently become more regular. A cut in power means businesses will have to spend more on alternative sources of power such as petrol and diesel generators.

Onome Ohwovoriole has a degree in Economics and Statistics from the University of Benin and prior to joining Nairametrics in December 2016 as Lead Analyst had stints in Publishing, Automobile Services, Entertainment and Leadership Training.He covers companies in the Nigerian corporate space, especially those listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE).He also has a keen interest in new frontiers like Cryptocurrencies and Fintech. In his spare time, he loves to read books on finance, fiction as well as keep up with happenings in the world of international diplomacy.You can contact him via [email protected]

Economy & Politics

FG receives N144 billion in dividends from NLNG in 2020

NLNG, paid the Federal Government a dividend of N188 billion in the fiscal year ended December 2020.

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LNG

Nigeria Liquified Natural Gas Company, NLNG, paid the Federal Government a dividend of N188 billion in the fiscal year ended December 2020.

This is according to the information contained in the Ministry of Finance Budget implementation report for the period of January 2020 to December 2020 and presented by the Minister for Finance Dr. Zainab Ahmed.

During the year, the Federal Government budgeted a sum of N80.3 billion as its share of dividends from NLNG, however, the actual sum received as its share was N188 billion, N63.2 billion more or 79% higher than projected.

The year 2020 was a difficult year for the government as the fall in crude oil prices and the economic shutdown that was triggered by the Covid-19 Pandemic dented projections and ravaged revenues.

NLNG Dividend Bliss

The dividend received from NLNG was a major bright spot in the government’s revenue performance for the year.

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  • During the year, the government projected revenue of N5.36 trillion but only received N3.9 trillion in revenues representing a shortfall of N1.4 trillion or 27% for the year.
  • The huge dividend windfall received in 2020 is a stark contrast from 2017 when Nigeria just exited a recession triggered by falling oil prices and a sharp exchange rate devaluation.
  • In that year, the Federal Government’s share of dividends from Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) dropped by as much as $687 million, from $1.04 billion in 2015 to $365 million in 2016, a 65% drop.
  • The N188 billion received in 2020 topped the amount received from signature bonuses only N78.2 billion and complimented the N192 billion received by VAT.
  • It is the most effective form of revenue generation for the government.

NLNG Controversies

Back in July Nairametrics reported that the House of Representatives planned to investigate the alleged illegal withdrawal of $1.05 billion from the NLNG account by NNPC without its knowledge and appropriation.

  • They had accused the NNPC of illegally tampering with the funds at the NLNG dividends account to the tune of 1.05 billion dollars thereby violating the nation’s appropriation law.
  • NLNG is a company jointly owned by Nigerian owned NNPC(49%), Shell (25.6%), Total (15%), and ENI (10.4%).
  • The company is located in Bonny Island and has six trains with a total capacity to process 22 million tonnes of LNG a year and as much as 5 million tonnes of natural gas liquids.
  • NLNG currently accounts for about 7% of the total LNG supply in the world. Nigeria is ranked as the 4th exporter of Natural Gas in the world.

Upshots: The FG is targeting a revenue of N208 billion from NLNG as dividends in 2021. If this materializes, it will be one of the highest payouts in dividend history (in naira terms).

  • Important to note that the recent devaluation of the naira will increase the naira value of dividends and other government revenue, as it did in 2020.
  • The government also targets N6.6 trillion in revenue for the period under review.

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Economy & Politics

Uganda Elections: Museveni re-elected for 6th term with 58.6% of the votes

Uganda’s President Museveni has won a 6th term in office as the opposition alleges wide-scale rigging.

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The President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, has been re-elected as President, gathering 5.85 million votes compared to 3.48 million votes by main opposition leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, a.k.a Bobi Wine.

According to Reuters, this victory represents 58.6% of the vote cast while Bobi Wine got 34.8%

Bobi Wine announced that the election results show this is the most fraudulent election in the history of Uganda and urged his followers to reject the result.

What you should know

  • Yoweri Museveni, aged 76, has been President of the East African nation since 1986.
  • Bobi Wine claimed via his official Twitter handle that military men jumped over his fence and took control of his home yesterday.

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Economy & Politics

Okonjo-Iweala speaks on Twitter’s suspension of Donald Trump

Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has given her opinion on Twitter’s suspension of US President, Donald Trump.

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Ngozi Okonjo Iweala, World Bank, Davos, World Economic Forum, WTO accepts nomination of Okonjo-Iweala as DG despite opposition from Egypt,WTO:  Happy to be in final rounds of DG Campaign- Okonjo Iweala

Twitter board member and candidate for the DG of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has said Twitter has rules under which it operates and CEO Jack Dorsey’s statement contains all that needs to be known concerning the suspension of US President, Donald Trump from its platform.

Okonjo-Iweala disclosed this in an interview with Arise TV on Friday evening.

  • “Twitter tries to help the public conversation in the world and gives people a means to engage on important issues,” she said.

On the decision to censor Donald Trump

She said the Board agreed as a team to have one voice on the decision to suspend Donald Trump from the service and that CEO Jack Dorsey gave all that needed to be known.

Okonjo-Iweala stated;

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  • “Being on the Twitter board, I have to respect our rules for communications on what is happening. I have to be very honest that we as a board agreed that we have a team that will deal with this, to make sure that we have one voice. But, I can tell you that if you want to know why the decisions were taken, please look at the statement by the CEO, Jack Dorsey, I think it tells you all you want to know.
  • “Twitter is an organization that has rules under which it operates, and if you read what it puts out, you will see that things are being implemented according to the rules.

On welcoming rules and regulations for the social media giant

Okonjo-Iweala said;

  • “Let’s wait and see, I don’t want to pre-judge or comment on anything. I don’t want to go beyond what I am willing to say, but let’s wait and see. These are very difficult times in the world. We all saw what happened in the United States. We have to be very careful. We would see what the future would be for the tech companies.”

Flash back:

  • Nairametrics reported that social media network, Twitter, permanently suspended U.S President, Donald Trump, citing the risk of further incitement of violence.
  • Jack Dorsey, the CEO and founder of Twitter, said that the decision to ban Donald Trump from the social network was the right decision, but one that sets a dangerous precedent.

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