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This week: What to expect from the Nigerian Economy

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Mounir Gwarzo

This is Nairametrics Outlook for the week ending November 4th, 2017

The week from the rear view

  • Last week, the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, pronounced that Nigeria was likely to record single digit inflation rate in 2018. Unsurprisingly, not a lot of people agreed with him and understandably so. Those against point to the continuous rise in food inflation as a reason. Food inflation has remained stubbornly high at above 20%, suggesting that it may take a while longer before we achieve single digit inflation. However, the very few who support the CBN Governor believe the impact of “base effects” will continue to slow down inflation rate barring no surprise increases in electricity tariffs and fuel prices.
  • Embattled Oil and Gas giant, Oando obtained a court injunction against the Security and Exchange Commission barring the commission from technically suspending the trading of its shares and continuing with its proposed forensic investigation. SEC is yet to comment on this injunction.
  • The comeback of the Consumer Kings was confirmed last week after Nestle and Dangote Flour Mills blew the pack with blistering year on year results. Dangote Flour Mills has now wiped away its accumulated losses and can now pay dividend while Nestle produced a 43% YoY rise in revenue for the period ended September 2017.
  • The Nigerian All Share Index closed the week 0.34% down but is still up 2.8% for the month and could close October on the positive for the first time in years. October is typically a bad month for stocks.
  • The race for the acquisition of 9 Mobile stepped up a notch after reports revealed about 13 companies had submitted bids to acquire the embattled company.

Outlook for the week

Nigerian Stock Exchange

  • As mentioned above, Nigerian equities are likely to close on a positive note this month on the back of some of the blistering results we have seen. Results have been largely positive for the financial, industrial and consumer goods sectors indicating that the economy starting to gain some traction. Corporate Revenues for the 34 quoted companies we track have hit about N1.9 trillion in the first 9 months of the year compared to about N1.5 trillion same period last year. Pr-tax profits are up 120% to about N326 billion.
  • Reports that the MSCI has decided to keep Nigeria on its index after placing it under review for a possible demotion to a standalone status for months is also a positive vibe for stocks. They cite the success of the Investor/Exporter Window as a reason. This could likely spur another round of influx of foreign portfolio investment into the equities market.
  • About 44 results were released last week as we wind down to the end of the earnings season. We do not see any major mark down this week, as the next set of dividends will be due later in the month.
  • We should also be on the look out for more deals this week as corporates step up capital raising efforts, particularly from the bond market. We also expect to see more news on the deal side of things as foreign companies look out to snap up local ones.

Macro-economic outlook

  • The Central Bank will be selling Treasury Bills on the 2nd of November, which is on Wednesday this week. The last one-year auction sold for 15.59% or a true yield of 18.4%. 91-day treasury bills currently sold for a rate of 13.1%.
  • It’s a busy week for the National Bureau of Statistics as we expect release of more macro-economic data. They will be releasing FAAC report for September and October 2017 as well as Job creation survey. Others are telecoms data, motor vehicle registration data and fiscal statistics data.
  • The highlight for us are the Jobs Survey, telecoms and motor vehicle data.

Government and regulators

  • The government’s plans to forfeit accounts that are not BVN compliant is still subsisting and banks have less than 7 days to comply. Some NGO’s have joint the suit challenging the government and we expect to see more right groups join forces to challenge the judgement.
  • Interestingly, this has been one polarising decision and it appears that opinions are evenly divided on the government’s plan to claim funds frozen in the accounts. A few others believe this is all part of government’s plan to force people to register BVN as it will be a PR disaster if they were to actually forfeit amount deposited in bank accounts.
  • The FG announced last week that it was pushing on with its plan for an N8tr budget for the year 2018. The government has failed to meet any of its revenue and expenditure targets this year, which is not a surprise. Another Federal Executive Council meeting is expected this week and we expect the government to provide more details, particularly over its debt plans.

World Outlook

  • Oil prices rose above $60 over the weekend signaling perhaps the beginning of another bullish period. Analysts opine the rise in oil prices have been largely influenced by climate disasters in North America and insecurity around the world. This is positive for the Government as it translates to higher revenue earnings. However, it also means subsidy cost will increase, thus a net neutral effect. Nigeria still imports much of its fuel needs.
  • The US President, Donald Trump is expected to announce his pick for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the US equivalent of the CBN. This is one decision that could jolt the markets as whoever is selected is bound to have a massive effect in the direction of interest rates. This is perhaps why foreign portfolio investment has tapered a bit as investors worry about rate hikes in the US.

That’s it for the week and do have a most profitable week ahead.

 

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Ugo Obi-chukwu "Ugodre" is a chartered accountant with over 16 years experience in financial management, corporate finance and financial analysis. He is also a retail investor and a personal finance advocate with over a decade experience investing in the Nigerian stock market.Ugo is the founder/Publisher of Nairametrics and blogs regularly on the website.

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Lagos Commissioner of Police dismantles road blocks on Lagos-Badagry expressway

The Commissioner warned the concerned Area Commanders to take action on full compliance as any defaulter will be sanctioned accordingly.

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The Commissioner of Police in Lagos State, CP Hakeem Odumosu, has ordered the immediate dismantling of all illegal roadblocks by police teams from the command on the Lagos-Badagry expressway.

The directive is to checkmate the illegal activities of the police on that route which have been condemned by the government, some stakeholders and international bodies and also bring sanity and decency to their operations along that axis.

That disclosure is contained in a statement signed by the Police Public Relations Officer of the Lagos State Police Command, CSP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, on Saturday, April 10, 2021.

Adejobi in the statement said that CP Odumosu gave the order on Friday while addressing Area Commanders and Divisional Police Officers in the command on the general security situation in the state and reviewing the anti-crime strategies of the command in order to sustain its feats on crime control.

What the statement from the Lagos State Police Command is saying

The statement from the Lagos Police Command partly reads, “In his bid to restore sanity and decency to the operations of the police along the ever-busy international route, Lagos/Badargy Expressway, the Commissioner of Police, Lagos State, CP Hakeem Odumosu, has ordered for the immediate dismantling of illegal roadblocks by the police teams from the Lagos State Police Command.

The police boss, while reacting to some complaints from the general public and some security reports on the police activities along the international route, ordered the Area Commanders and Divisional Police Officers whose jurisdictions fall along the Badargy Expressway; Festac and Area K, Marogbo, to withdraw their men from the illegal roadblocks and embark on aggressive motorised patrol and surveillance to police their areas and the route.

The Commissioner of Police confirmed that the illegal police roadblocks along the route have been condemned by the government, international bodies and interest groups and they must be dismantled without delay,” he said.

The Commissioner, however, noted that other police operatives from other police formations, outside the supervision of the Lagos State Police Command who operate along the route, would be contacted to adjust and do the needful to restore sanity to their operations.

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The CP Odumosu then warned the concerned Area Commanders to desist and take necessary action on full compliance with his order as any defaulter will be sanctioned accordingly.

 

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COVID-19 Update in Nigeria

On the 10th of April 2021, 84 new confirmed cases and death was recorded in Nigeria

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Covid 19 update symptops

The spread of novel Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) in Nigeria continues to record significant increases as the latest statistics provided by the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control reveal Nigeria now has 163,736 confirmed cases.

On the 10th of April 2021, 84 new confirmed cases and 1 death was recorded in Nigeria.

To date, 163,736 cases have been confirmed, 154,098 cases have been discharged and 2,060 deaths have been recorded in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

A total of 1.8 million tests have been carried out as of April 10th, 2021 compared to 1.7 million tests a day earlier.

COVID-19 Case Updates- 10th April 2021,

  • Total Number of Cases – 163,736
  • Total Number Discharged – 154,098
  • Total Deaths – 2,060
  • Total Tests Carried out – 1,803,177

According to the NCDC, the 84 new cases are reported from 13 states- Lagos (26), Akwa Ibom (16), Rivers (10), Ebonyi (9), Abia (6), Kano (6), Osun (3), Bauchi (2), Delta (2), Edo (1), Jigawa (1), Kaduna (1), and Ogun (1)

Meanwhile, the latest numbers bring Lagos state total confirmed cases to 57,950, followed by Abuja (19,703), Plateau (9,030), Kaduna (8,984), Rivers (6,986), Oyo (6,838), Edo (4,892), Ogun (4,620), Kano (3,924), Ondo (3,226), Kwara (3,120), Delta (2,615), Osun (2,547), Nasarawa (2,378), Enugu (2,259), Katsina (2,097), Gombe (2,034), Ebonyi (2,008), Anambra (1,909), Akwa Ibom (1,794), and Abia (1,677).

Imo State has recorded 1,655 cases, Bauchi (1,538), Borno (1,337), Benue (1,188), Adamawa (1,051), Niger (930), Taraba (910), Bayelsa (871), Ekiti (868), Sokoto (774), Jigawa (525), Kebbi (450), Cross River (385), Yobe (365), Zamfara (234), while Kogi state has recorded 5 cases only.

READ ALSO: COVID-19: Western diplomats warn of disease explosion, poor handling by government

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Lock Down and Curfew

In a move to combat the spread of the pandemic disease, President Muhammadu Buhari directed the cessation of all movements in Lagos and the FCT for an initial period of 14 days, which took effect from 11 pm on Monday, 30th March 2020.

The movement restriction, which was extended by another two weeks period, has been partially put on hold with some businesses commencing operations from May 4. On April 27th, 2020, Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari declared an overnight curfew from 8 pm to 6 am across the country, as part of new measures to contain the spread of the COVID-19. This comes along with the phased and gradual easing of lockdown measures in FCT, Lagos, and Ogun States, which took effect from Saturday, 2nd May 2020, at 9 am.

On Monday, 29th June 2020 the federal government extended the second phase of the eased lockdown by 4 weeks and approved interstate movement outside curfew hours with effect from July 1, 2020. Also, on Monday 27th July 2020, the federal government extended the second phase of eased lockdown by an additional one week.

On Thursday, 6th August 2020 the federal government through the secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and Chairman of the Presidential Task Force (PTF) on COVID-19 announced the extension of the second phase of eased lockdown by another four (4) weeks.

Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State announced the closed down of the Eti-Osa Isolation Centre, with effect from Friday, 31st July 2020. He also mentioned that the Agidingbi Isolation Centre would also be closed and the patients relocated to a large capacity centre.

Stanbic 728 x 90

Due to the increased number of covid-19 cases in Nigeria, the Nigerian government ordered the reopening of Isolation and treatment centres in the country on Thursday, 10th December 2020.

On 26th January 2021, the Federal Government announced the extension of the guidelines of phase 3 of the eased lockdown by one month following the rising cases of the coronavirus disease in the country and the expiration of phase 3 of the eased lockdown.

On 28th February 2021, the federal government confirmed that the first tranche of Covid-19 vaccines will arrive in Nigeria on Tuesday, March 2nd, 2021.

On Tuesday, 2nd March 2021, the National Primary health Care Development Agency announced the arrival of the expected COVX Astrazeneca/Oxford covid-19 vaccines.

On Saturday, 6th March 2021, President Muhammadu Buhari and his vice, Yemi Osinbajo received vaccination against the covid-19 as the State House in Abuja.

READ ALSO: Bill Gates says Trump’s WHO funding suspension is dangerous

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