Boom: Nigeria Records First Negative Annual GDP Growth Rate Since 1991


Nairametrics| The National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, released its 2016 annual GDP numbers, showing and as expected a contraction of about -1.51% for the year ended December 2016. This is Nigeria’s first negative GDP growth rate since 1991, ending a 25 year run of modest GDP Growth rate. Nigeria’s highest GDP growth rate remains 14.6%, recorded in 2006.

NBS Excerpts:

In  the  fourth  quarter  of  2016,  the  nation’s  Gross  Domestic  Product  (GDP) contracted by -1.30% (year-on-year) in real terms, from N18,533.75 billion in Q4 2015  to  N18,292.95  billion  in  Q4  2016.  This  decline  was  less  severe  than  the decline recorded in the previous quarter, of  -2.24%, but was nevertheless lower than the growth rate recorded in the final quarter of 2015, of 2.11% . Quarter on quarter, real GDP increased by 4.09%, which partly reflects seasonal factors as well as a rise in the general price level.

Nigeria’s real GDP is now about N67.9 trillion while nominal GDP is about N94.1 trillion. The NBS did not translate Nigeria’s GDP to dollars making it difficult to determine Nigeria’s GDP compared to other countries.

NBS Excerpts:

Nominal GDP was N29,292,998.54 million at basic prices in the fourth quarter of 2016,  which  represents  year  on  year  nominal  growth  of  12.97%.  In  contrast  to real  growth,  this  is  5.84%  points  higher  than  the  rate  recorded  in  the  same quarter of 2015, implying that the GDP deflator increased faster than the earlier period.  For  full  year  2016,  aggregate  nominal  GDP  stood  at    N101,598,482.13 compared to N94,144,960.45.

Why the contraction?

According to the NBS, the  contraction  reflects  a  difficult  year  for Nigeria,  which  included  weaker  inflation induced  consumption  demand,  an increase  in  pipeline  vandalism,   significantly  reduced  foreign  reserves  and  a concomitantly weaker currency, and problems in the energy sector such as fuel shortages and lower electricity generation

Oil Sector

NBS Excerpts: For the full year 2016, oil production was estimated to be 1.833mb/day, compared to 2.13mb/day in 2015. This reduction has largely been attributed to vandalism in the Niger Delta region. As a result, the sector contracted by  -13.65%; a more significant decline than that in 2015 of  -5.45%. This reduced the oil sectors share of real GDP to 8.42% in 2016, compared to 9.61% in 2015.

Non-Oil sector

NBS Excerpts: For full year 2016, the non oil sector declined by -0.22% in real terms, compared to a growth rate of 3.75% in 2015, a difference of 3.97% points.

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What others say about : Boom: Nigeria Records First Negative Annual GDP Growth Rate Since 1991..


anodebenze

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