Nigeria’s current account surplus is projected to increase from 9.2% of GDP in 2024 to 9.4% by 2026, according to the World Bank’s April 2025 Africa’s Pulse Report.
This anticipated improvement is largely driven by the depreciation of the naira, leading to reduced imports and higher worker remittances.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s current and capital accounts posted a combined surplus of $17.22 billion in 2024, up significantly from $2.59 billion in 2023.
The bulk of the gains came from trade, where a rebound in exports and a contraction in imports boosted the country’s trade balance.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook
The World Bank report also assesses Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic outlook, noting a slight improvement in 2024 with the regional current account deficit declining from 3.4% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024.
However, this trend is expected to reverse in 2025–2026, with the deficit widening to 2.9% of GDP due to global trade challenges and declining export revenues.
The report noted that net oil-exporting nations strengthened their position in 2024, but are likely to face declines in 2025–2026 due to falling energy revenues.
Gabon is expected to maintain a high surplus of 30.7% of GDP in 2024, benefiting from strong commodity exports.
Angola, however, will see its surplus drop significantly from 6.7% of GDP in 2024 to 2% in 2026, reflecting weaker export performance.
Divergent trends
Meanwhile, metal-rich economies and countries without natural resources show diverging trends.
- According to the report, Zambia is benefiting from rising copper exports, which are helping reduce its current account deficit.
- South Africa’s deficit is forecast to widen, climbing from 0.6% of GDP in 2024 to 1.7% in 2026, driven by strong import demand.
- The World Bank report says Botswana’s external outlook remains uncertain, given its dependency on diamond market fluctuations.
Mauritania is projected to maintain an average current account deficit of 5.9% of GDP from 2025 to 2027, largely due to higher gas exports and declining import prices.
Countries without major resource exports
For nations without major resource exports, current account deficits remain significant but slightly improving as non-resource-rich countries recorded a 4.3% deficit in 2024, expected to narrow to 4% in 2026.
Kenya’s deficit is forecast to stabilize at 4% of GDP, helped by a gradual recovery in exports and foreign direct investment, particularly under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework.
The World Bank report added that Mozambique’s deficit is projected to remain at 12.1% of GDP from 2025 to 2027, as higher coal and gas exports offset an increase in import spending related to megaprojects, including the TotalEnergies LNG project.
What you should know
The CBN, earlier in April, noted that goods trade posted a surplus of $13.17 billion in 2024, aided by a 48.3% surge in gas exports and a 24.6% rise in non-oil exports.
- On the import side, petroleum imports fell 23.2%, while non-oil imports declined by 12.6%, both reflecting the combined effect of FX liberalisation, reduced consumption of imported goods, and efforts to improve local production.
- Nigeria’s projected current account surplus growth reflects a key opportunity for its economy, reinforcing trade competitiveness while providing fiscal room for investment expansion. However, macroeconomic risks remain, particularly in light of global trade uncertainties and ongoing currency fluctuations.
