The Statistician-General and chief executive officer of the National Bureau of Statistics Yemi Kale may have news capable of throwing Nigerians into joy as he ‘thinks’ the economy might have resuscitated its way of the dredges of recession it currently finds itself. According to Bloomberg, Kale in an interview stated as much. “Intuitively, we might be getting out of recession in the second quarter, but I can’t say until all the numbers are in,” Kale said. Here are 3 reasons for his prediction.
- The reasons for the NBS boss’ suspicions are hinged on initial reports from the six major sectors, making up more than half of the economy. While trade and real estate will probably still contract, crude and telecommunications might shrink or expand marginally, manufacturing and farming are expected to grow in the second quarter.
- Factory costs have also dropped significantly in the second quarter especially as the CBN window for investors hit the ground running achieving massive flow of forex within the initial weeks of its inception. The window succeeded in cleaning out a premium of about 20 percent on the black market after the CBN asked commercial banks to start quoting the window’s prices.
- Oil production has also continued to rise as the data from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries shows that Nigeria for Q2 2017 averaged 68 million barrels daily. For a country that depends heavily on oil production for the majority of its revenue, the 8.6% increase over last year’s figures will be more than a welcome relief. It will also have contributed in no small measure to the belief that the country may be out the woods finally.