Key Highlights

  • Inflation rate stood at 11.61% in May.
  • Inflation rate reduces by 0.87% from April.
  • Inflation rate increased by 1.09% on month-on-month basis.
  • Food inflation stood at 13.45% in May.
  • Core Inflation stood at 10.7% in May.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), on Wednesday, released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2018. The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living.

The report shows inflation increased by 11.6% (year-on-year) in May 2018 which is 0.87% less than the recorded rate in April, 2018 (12.48%). This reduction is the sixteenth consecutive time inflation rate has been dropping since January, 2017.

Core Inflation

According to the NBS report, core inflation stood at 10.7% and decreased by 0.2% in the month of May from the 10.9% recorded in April. On a month on basis, it rose by 0.98% in the period under review. It was up by 0.11% when compared with 0.87% recorded in April.

However, the percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending May, 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 11.83%, which is a reduction of 0.19% from that of April.

Food Inflation

The Composite Food Index rose by 13.45%, during the period under review. This was caused by the increase in price of potatoe, yam and other tubers, fish, bread and cereals, Oil and fats, vegetables, coffee, tea and cocoa, Meat, Milk, cheese and eggs.

Also, on a month-on-month basis, the Food sub-index increased by 1.33% in the month of  May 2018, it went up by 0.42% from 0.91% that was recorded in the previous month of April.

The CPI report also shows that the average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending May 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 18.36%, which is a reduction of 0.53% from the average annual rate of change recorded in the month of April (18.89%).

Urban Inflation

Meanwhile, the report equally shows that there is a 12.08% reduction in the urban inflation rate (year-on-year) in May 2018 from 12.89% recorded in the previous month of April 2018. The rural inflation rate also dropped by 11.20% in May 2018, from 12.13% in the previous month of April 2018.

In the same vein, the urban index rose by 1.10% in May 2018. This shows a reduction of 0.01% from 0.85% in April, on a month-on-month basis. For Rural Index, it also rose by 1.08%, from the recorded figure of 0.82% in the previous month of April.

The corresponding 12-month year-on-year rural inflation rate in the period under review is 14.53% compared to 14.95% in April 2018 while the corresponding urban index is 15.10% which is less than 15.47% reported in April, 2018.

All Items Inflation (states)

Meanwhile, during the month under review, Kebbi State recorded the highest all-items-inflation with a figure of 14.65%. Yobe State (13.68%) and Jigawa State (13.62%) followed in that order, while Kwara State (8.87%) recorded the slowest rise in price during the period. Kogi followed with 9.07% while Delta recorded 9.22% on a year-on-year all item basis in May, 2018.

Implication

For investors, falling inflation means lower yields on treasury bills and other government securities. For select borrowers, the drop in inflation, in theory, should lead to lower rates.

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