Nigeria records 79,323 terror-related deaths between 2020 and 2025 – Report

Nigeria recorded 79,323 deaths linked to terror-related violence between 2020 and 2025.

This is according to a new report by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA), which says the country’s security crisis is more complex than commonly portrayed.

The report, released by the research organisation, estimates that more than 42,000 civilians were killed during the five-year period, while the remaining deaths involved security personnel and members of armed groups.

According to ORFA, the findings are based on years of data collection and cross-referencing of violent incidents across Nigeria, with each incident capturing up to 60 data points to analyse attack patterns and perpetrators.

What the report is saying

ORFA said its findings challenge widely held assumptions about the groups responsible for the majority of civilian deaths in Nigeria’s conflict zones.

According to ORFA, armed groups it classified as “Fulani Terror Groups” were responsible for 44% of recorded civilian deaths, while Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) accounted for 8% and 4%, respectively.

• “ORFA data show that the Fulani Ethnic Militia (FEM) has killed four times as many civilians as Boko Haram and ISWAP combined (44% vs 12%). If ORFA’s ‘Unidentified Terror Groups’ are as much FEM related as the ‘Fulani Terror Groups’, this could mount to more than six times,” the report stated.

The report also stated that about 34,773 civilians were abducted during the period, with groups classified as Fulani Terror Groups and Unidentified Terror Groups accounting for most of the recorded kidnappings.

ORFA further reported that its analysis found higher numbers of Christian fatalities than Muslim fatalities during the study period and claimed that field research indicated differences in the treatment of Christian and Muslim hostages during abductions.

The organisation said its analysis distinguishes between armed groups it classified as Fulani militants and the wider Fulani ethnic population, stressing that the vast majority of Fulani people are not involved in violence.

More insights

According to ORFA, community attacks accounted for the majority of civilian casualties recorded during the study period.

The report estimated that 75% of civilian deaths occurred during attacks on farming communities, which it said frequently involved killings, abductions, destruction of property and sexual violence.

ORFA’s researchers said the study relied on multiple years of incident tracking, field research and survivor testimonies to analyse patterns of violence across affected states.

• Senior Research Analyst Frans Vierhout said the organisation’s assessment was based on attack patterns, target selection and geographical distribution of violence rather than isolated incidents.
• Another researcher, Steven Kefas, said survivor interviews conducted as part of the study suggested differences in ransom demands, detention conditions and treatment of abducted victims based on religion.

The organisation urged governments, policymakers and international partners to examine the findings closely, arguing that a better understanding of the drivers of violence is necessary for more effective security interventions.

What you should know

Nigeria continues to face multiple security challenges, including insurgency in the North-East, banditry in the North-West and North-Central, farmer-herder conflicts, kidnapping for ransom and separatist-related violence in parts of the South-East.

• Successive governments have intensified military operations against armed groups, while security agencies continue to carry out joint operations aimed at curbing terrorism, kidnapping and oil theft across different parts of the country.
• In October, the US designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern, citing reports of widespread attacks on Christian communities.
• On 25 December 2025, President Trump announced he authorized a “powerful and deadly strike” against an ISIS terrorist base in Northwest Nigeria.

This strike follows repeated warnings from President Trump over alleged religiously motivated violence in Nigeria.

In November, Trump publicly threatened military intervention and directed the U.S. Department of Defense to prepare for potential action in Nigeria.

During his 2026 Democracy Day address, President Bola Tinubu said Nigeria has recorded a significant decline in terrorism-related deaths, claiming an 81% reduction since 2015.