Businesses and households in Nigeria expect inflation to remain largely stable in the coming months.
This is according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Inflation Expectations Survey Report for November 2025.
The survey showed the Inflation Perception Index at 43.5 points, with high-inflation perceptions falling to 52.3% in November from 56.5% in October.
What the data is saying
The survey showed uneven inflation pressure across firm sizes, with micro businesses reporting the highest perception at 54.6%, followed by large firms (53.7%), medium firms (49.3%), and small firms (46.4%).
This suggests smaller and informal operators continue to face higher cost pressures.
“The decline in current inflation perception was mainly influenced by the opinions of Business respondents, which dropped from 55.4% in October 2025 to 50.3% in November 2025,” the survey noted.
Respondents, according to the report, cited energy, transportation, and exchange rate as key inflation drivers, with other factors less significant.
Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated to 14.45% in November 2025, down from 16.05% in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The NBS noted headline inflation fell year-on-year, based on a November 2009 base.
Food inflation in November 2025 was 11.08% year-on-year, the NBS reported.
Expectations and policy context
The survey shows that most businesses expect inflation to remain stable over the next month, three months, and six months.
Households anticipate stability in the short term but expect a possible rise over six months, reflecting lingering medium-term concerns.
In December 2025, President Bola Tinubu reaffirmed the government’s commitment to reducing inflation from 34.6% to 15% by year-end.
He made the announcement during his presentation of the 2025 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly in Abuja.
Tinubu stated, “The 2025 budget projects that inflation will decline significantly from the current 34.6% to 15% by the end of next year.”
Several experts expressed doubts about President Tinubu achieving the targets.
What this means
- The CBN survey indicates a gradual easing of inflation worries, particularly among businesses, supported by declining headline inflation.
- While energy, transport, and exchange rate pressures remain key risks, relative price stability could encourage planning, investment, and consumption decisions in the months ahead, providing a supportive backdrop for Nigeria’s broader economic recovery.
- Nairametrics reports that Nigeria’s private sector expanded further in November 2025 as PMI rose to 56.4 from 55.4 in October.
- The rise signals broader economic expansion, reinforcing Nigeria’s steady rebound this year.
