Historical data reveals that the pioneer crypto asset is on track to post the highest September gains in history, with October showing around 12% growth so far.
The large stimulus announcement made by China and a month’s worth of newly mined BTC inflows into U.S.-listed spot ETFs are believed to have kept the crypto market trending positively.
Market sentiment has completely turned for the better this month, with bullish sentiments prevailing during the review period. From less than $58,000 on September 17, the price of BTC has risen about 12%, topping out above $64,000 on September 30.
It was a record week for Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, with more than $1.1 billion in inflows. These statistics affirm the growing endorsement of Bitcoin among traditional players.
These substantial movements are partly related to the Federal Reserve’s decision to decrease interest rates on September 18, 2024, which provided a mild boost to the crypto market. Bitcoin increased by 13.8%, trading at $65,800, and was just 10.8% away from its all-time high. This surge was further fueled by hopes of renewed interest from institutional investors, which accounted for a significant influx of capital.
Market fundamentals project a bullish outlook for the fourth quarter. Over the last nine years, investors have seen major profits during this period, with over 50% gains in five of those years.
Downside Risk Remains Elevated Amid Market’s Parabolic Nature
Despite the prevailing positive sentiment, certain bearish indicators remain evident. Currently, the demand for stablecoins in China is notably low, which may hinder the potential for a new all-time high for Bitcoin. When dollar-pegged stablecoins trade at a discount rather than a premium in China, it generally reflects a bearish outlook in the wider cryptocurrency market.
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $64.4K, approximately 13% lower than its all-time high of $73,734 reached in March, as seen on Binance. The digital asset experienced a decline during the early trading hours of September 30, dropping nearly 2% over the last six hours.
Although Bitcoin reached its highest closing price in two months on September 28, nearing the $66,000 threshold, various indicators suggest that a genuine bull market may still be elusive. The recent price increases have been partially attributed to favorable trends in traditional markets, with the S&P 500 index achieving an all-time high on September 26.
Santiment’s report also highlighted that it does not appear that Bitcoin will reach any record high value within the foreseeable future, as cryptocurrencies have not experienced a high public mood for several months. Nonetheless, on September 30, on-chain analytics platform Santiment suggested that those looking forward to a new all-time high for Bitcoin may have a long wait ahead and should “slow down their expectations.”
The $70,000 level has been a barrier for several months, with the price hovering around $60,000. For the third consecutive time, buyers have managed to push the price above the $60,000 boundary. BTC is moving towards the bearish trendline and the resistance at $70K.
If the price is rejected, the main target for the bulls will be to protect $61,000 to prevent a fresh wave of decline that could drag the price closer to the $50,000 mark. The price might utilize the bullish institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18) as support and bounce back from a fall.
Recent price action shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) attempting to breach the bearish trendline. Should this validation be confirmed by a close above 60, bullish momentum will likely take shape.
Over the weekend, sellers benefited as Bitcoin dipped below the $65K support line. However, Bitcoin continues to exhibit overall bullish momentum despite the bearish trendline. If the resistance at $65,500 is surpassed, the price may rebound to $67,000. Conversely, if the price is rejected at this resistance level, the subsequent support level will be at $63,500. The RSI has returned to the bullish trendline, and a new rebound could sustain bullish momentum.
Although a slight decline was noted on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price remains bullish at this time. To achieve a new all-time high, it will be essential to overcome the remaining resistance. A breakthrough at $70,000 could enable Bitcoin to experience significant bullish volatility.
