Seplat, Aradel and Oando: Who is turning more oil into more cash?

Seplat led oil and gas production in the first nine months of 2026, averaging 144,999 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Aradel was close behind at about 144,700, while Oando ranked third at 42,985, less than a third of either rival’s output.

However, according to their financial statements, Aradel had the most cash left, but Seplat had already used its cash to reduce debt and increase dividends.

Cash matters because the more a company generates from its operations, the more it can have left after investing in the business.

That leftover cash, known as free cash flow, gives it room to pay down debt and sustain or raise dividends. A dependable dividend can strengthen investor confidence and support the share price.

In the first nine months of 2026, Aradel generated N2.46 trillion in operating cash, compared with N1.26 trillion at Seplat and N218 billion at Oando.

After allowing for investment and interest payments, Aradel still led with N1.67 trillion left, followed by Seplat at N912 billion and Oando at N107 billion.

That cash gives them room to pay down debt and sustain or raise dividends. The prospect of a dependable payout can build investor confidence and support the share price, but the company with the most cash left does not always deliver the biggest share price gain.

By the close of trading on Friday, November 6, 2026, Seplat led the three stocks with a 175% gain for the year, even though Aradel had more cash left after investment and interest. Aradel had gained 93.4%, while Oando fell 17.7% despite its cash turnaround.

Why Aradel had more cash left

Seplat and Aradel produced almost the same amount of oil and gas, yet Aradel had about N760 billion more left after investment and interest.

Most of the difference opened up before either company paid those bills.

Aradel brought in about N1.20 trillion more in operating cash. The gap narrowed after investment and interest, but Aradel still came out ahead.

• Aradel’s results now include ND Western and Renaissance, making the group much larger than it was a year earlier.
• It also received an average of $97.50 a barrel for its crude, up from $75.60, and lifted more crude than it was entitled for the period.

That timing matters: two companies can produce similar amounts but load different volumes for sale during the same nine months.

The timing of payments mattered too. An increase in trade and other payables added N1.38 trillion to Aradel’s operating cash flow before other working-capital movements.

In other words, some bills had yet to be paid. Aradel also paid about N544 billion towards its acquisition obligations, a payment that came out after the cash measure used in this comparison.

For Oando, the change in direction mattered more than its place in the ranking. It went from using cash in its operations a year earlier to generating enough to cover investment and interest, with N107 billion left on the same basis.

New wells and fewer interruptions helped lift production, while the cost of producing each barrel fell by 22%.

• In simple terms, Oando produced more and spent less to get each barrel out. Its trading business is also part of the group, so the N107 billion reflects the whole business.

Can the three producers keep the cash coming?

Aradel’s bigger business gives it a stronger starting point for 2027. The Olo field has started producing, giving it another source of oil.

The harder test is how much cash the group can generate if crude prices fall, and the amount it lifts comes back in line with its entitlement.

• Even if Aradel keeps its cash lead, any payments that fall due on its acquisitions will affect how much is available for dividends or debt reduction.
• Seplat has two ways to keep cash coming in. It is bringing idle offshore wells back into production, and the ANOH plant began commercial gas sales through the OB3 pipeline in September.
• More gas sales would give Seplat another source of cash if crude prices ease. But restoring and maintaining offshore wells costs money, and Seplat sold its oil for about $96 a barrel in the first nine months.

For shareholders, the figure to watch is the core dividend. Most of the third-quarter payout was a special dividend, and a separate proposed payout depends on completing a stake sale to NNPC.

Oando has the smallest cushion of the three. Keeping its facilities running reliably and holding down the cost per barrel would help it build on the turnaround.

More downtime, higher costs or slower customer payments could quickly eat into what it has left.

The next sign of progress would be another period in which the business pays for investment and interest from the cash it generates.

Overall, here, is that Aradel had the most cash left. Seplat, whose shares gained the most, had already reduced debt and increased its payout.

Going into 2027, the question for both is what they can still afford to pay shareholders if oil prices ease.

For Oando, the first test is whether it can keep generating a cash surplus in the first place.

Investor takeaways

Can Seplat finish 2026 generating more cash? It used cash to pay down debt and lifted dividend payments to N240 billion in the first nine months, from N147 billion a year earlier.

• Reopened offshore wells and higher gas sales could help it finish the year strongly.
• With the shares up about 175% by November 6, buyers were paying about N22 for every N1 Seplat earned over the past year.
• For investors buying for income, the test is whether the business can keep funding its regular dividend.

Most of the third-quarter dividend was a special payment, and another proposed payout depends on a deal with NNPC.

Can Aradel end the year with more cash in the bank after paying for Renaissance? Aradel has the most room to return cash, but shareholders need to see how much of it is available.

• It had the most cash left after investment and interest, but it used N544 billion to pay toward the acquisition, reduced debt and cut its interim dividend from N10 to N7 per share.
• Aradel shares had gained 93.4% for the year by November 6. That means N100,000 invested at the end of 2025 would have been worth about N193,400, before dividends and trading costs.

At that price, investors were paying about N9 for every N1 Aradel earned over the past year, with a one-off gain boosting reported profit.

For shareholders/investors, the question is whether the enlarged business can generate enough cash to meet its commitments and leave more for dividends, especially if oil prices ease.

If the cash surplus holds up after those payments, Aradel has more scope to raise dividends or reduce debt.

Oando’s cash turnaround gives investors a reason to watch the next results. Its shares rose 5.1% to N33.10 on Friday, November 6, from N31.50 at the previous close, narrowing the stock’s loss for the year from 21.6% to 17.7%.

• At N33.10, investors were paying about N2.90 for every N1 Oando earned over the previous 12 months.

The next test is whether higher production and lower costs can keep leaving Oando with enough cash after investment to pay down debt.

• Reducing debt could lower the interest bill and, over time, give Oando more room to consider a cash dividend.
• Its 2025 distribution gave eligible investors additional shares, but cash dividends have yet to resume.

For now, another period of positive cash flow, accompanied by lower debt and interest costs, would give investors a firmer basis to reassess the stock.