Nigeria’s private sector expands for fifth month, PMI rises to 53.2 in October

Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth momentum in October 2026, with the country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising marginally to 53.2 points from 53.0 points recorded in September.

The latest reading signals a fifth consecutive month of expansion in economic activity, driven by stronger performances in the agriculture and industrial sectors despite a slight moderation in services sector growth.

Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that all three major sectors of the economy remained above the 50-point benchmark that separates expansion from contraction, indicating broad-based growth across the economy.

What the data is saying

A closer analysis of the report’s component indices also showed improvements in some key areas of business activity, although new orders and inventories recorded slight declines compared with September.

• The composite output index rose to 54.6 points in October from 53.9 points in September, indicating an improvement in reported output activity during the month.
• The employment index increased to 53.2 points from 51.5 points, while the new orders index eased to 52.8 points from 53.7 points.
• The stock of raw materials index slipped to 51.9 points from 52.1 points but remained above the 50-point expansion threshold.
• The new export orders index improved from 48.2 to 48.8 points, while new import orders rose from 47.9 to 49.0 points, although both remained below 50 points.

The CBN explained that a PMI reading above 50 points indicates expansion in business activities, while a reading below 50 points signals contraction.

An index of exactly 50 points represents no change. On this basis, the October figures indicate that overall business activity remained in expansion, even as some individual indicators continued to show weakness.

Industry PMI rises for third consecutive month

The Industry PMI increased to 52.6 points in October from 52.0 points in September, marking the sector’s third consecutive month of expansion.

• The report showed that all five component indices used to assess industrial activity remained above the 50-point threshold, pointing to continued improvement across the measured areas.
• The performance also reflected gains in production, new orders, employment, and raw materials inventory during the review period.
• The industry output index rose to 53.5 points from 53.2 points in September, while the new orders index increased to 52.1 points from 51.7 points.
• The employment index improved to 52.7 points from 51.1 points, while the raw materials inventory index climbed to 51.8 points from 51.1 points.

Suppliers’ delivery time stood at 52.6 points, compared with 52.7 points in the preceding month.

Notably, twelve of the 16 industry subsectors surveyed recorded expansion, while four contracted.

Cement manufacturing emerged as the best-performing industrial subsector with a PMI at 60.2 points, highlighting robust activity in the construction and infrastructure ecosystem.

On the flip side, Chemical and Pharmaceutical Products recorded the weakest performance in the sector with a PMI reading of 43.4 points, remaining firmly in contraction region.

The rise in industrial activity further reinforces signs that manufacturing and production activities are gradually regaining momentum after experiencing weaker conditions earlier in the year.

Agriculture leads expansion

The agriculture sector emerged as the strongest-performing segment of the economy among the three sectors in October, posting a PMI reading of 54.7 points, up from 53.1 points in September.

• The sector maintained its expansion for the twenty-seventh consecutive month, with all five agriculture subsectors recording growth during the review period.
• The improvement was reflected in the sector’s general farming activities, new orders, employment and raw materials inventory indices, which all remained above 50 points.
• The general farming activities index increased to 56.8 points from 54.6 points in September, while the new orders index rose to 55.6 points from 54.4 points.

The employment index improved to 52.9 points from 51.4 points, while the raw materials inventory index climbed to 53.6 points from 52.1 points.

Livestock recorded the highest PMI among agriculture subsectors at 56.4 points, followed by Forestry at 55.3 points, while Agricultural Support Services recorded the lowest reading at 52.0 points.

Services growth moderates

While the services sector remained in growth territory, momentum slowed slightly in October.

• The Services PMI eased to 52.7 points from 53.2 points in September, although the sector remained in expansion for the fourth consecutive month.
• However, the sector continued to benefit from growth in output, new orders, employment, and inventories as they all stayed above 50 points.
• Business activity expanded to 54.2 points, employment rose to 53.5 points, new orders stood at 51.7 points, and inventories remained positive at 51.1 points.

Seven of the eleven services subsectors expanded during the month while four contracted.

Educational Services recorded the highest PMI reading at 60.2 points, making it one of the strongest-performing subsectors across the entire economy.

Arts, Entertainment and Recreation was the weakest services subsector with a PMI of 47.1 points.

The moderation in services growth suggests businesses remain cautiously optimistic, although slower order inflows and inventory accumulation indicate some decline in demand conditions relative to the previous month.

More insight

A breakdown of the composite PMI components highlights the broad-based nature of the expansion.

• The composite output index rose to 54.6 points in October, indicating stronger production levels across the economy.
• Employment improved significantly to 53.2 points from 51.5 points in September, reflecting increased hiring activity by firms.
• New orders, a key indicator of future business activity, remained healthy at 52.8 points.
• Meanwhile, the stock of raw materials index moderated slightly to 51.9 points but remained above the growth threshold, while supplier delivery time stood at 52.6 points, suggesting improved supply chain conditions and faster deliveries.

The report revealed that 24 of the 32 subsectors monitored recorded growth during October, underscoring the widespread nature of the ongoing expansion as only eight subsectors contracted.

The October PMI report highlighted an increase in the composite input and output price indices, indicating that businesses continued to report changes in the prices of materials and goods during the month.

• The composite input price index rose by 0.7 points to 64.0 points in October from 63.3 points in September.
• Output price index increased by 0.5 points to 58.9 points from 58.4 points.
• In Services, the input price index increased to 62.8 points from 62.0 points, while the output price index declined to 58.4 points from 59.3 points.
• Agriculture recorded increases in both measures, with its input price index rising to 68.3 points from 65.8 points and its output price index increasing to 61.1 points from 58.5 points.

The October PMI report points to a Nigerian economy that is continuing to recover, covering 1,851 responses from purchasing and supply executives across Industry, Services and Agriculture. Compared to the previous month’s report, the survey covers 1,900 respondents (Companies Purchasing and Supply Executives).

The report’s findings point to continued expansion in overall business activity, led by stronger performance in Agriculture and Industry, while Services recorded a slower pace of growth. At the same time, the rise in the composite input and output price indices remained a notable feature of the October business survey.