OPEC slashes 2026 oil demand forecast by over 70% to 400,000 bpd

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by more than 70%, from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 400,000 bpd, reflecting weaker-than-anticipated demand growth during the year.

The revised outlook was disclosed on Monday, October 12, 2026, by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais during a ministerial session titled Perspectives on Global Oil and Gas Markets at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The announcement comes as Saudi Arabia faces renewed drone and missile threats following deadly attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport over the weekend.

OPEC cuts demand growth 71.4%

Al Ghais explained that OPEC’s decision to lower its 2026 oil demand growth projection from 1.4 million bpd to 400,000 bpd represents a downward revision of approximately 71.4%, reflecting changing market conditions throughout the year.

• Despite the sharp reduction, the organisation expects some of the anticipated consumption that failed to materialise in 2026 to emerge in 2027, potentially supporting stronger demand growth.
• The initial forecast projected global oil demand growth of 1.4 million bpd in 2026, compared with the revised estimate of 400,000 bpd.
• The ministerial discussion also featured Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, and Algeria’s Minister of State for Hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab.

Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, also participated in the ministerial discussion.

Al Ghais emphasised the importance of sustained investment across the petroleum industry amid changing conditions in the global oil market.

Saudi attacks and OPEC+ targets

The security concerns surrounding the congress follow Saturday’s attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, which killed at least 12 people and injured 309 others, according to Saudi authorities.

• A separate strike on Sunday claimed another life and left 11 people injured, further raising concerns about the security of critical infrastructure in the world’s largest crude-exporting country.
• Beyond the escalating regional tensions, OPEC’s latest demand projection comes eight days after seven OPEC+ countries agreed to maintain their November 2026 oil production targets at a combined 31.01 million bpd.
• The decision, reached during a virtual meeting on October 4, retained Saudi Arabia’s production target at 10.478 million bpd, Russia’s at 9.949 million bpd and Iraq’s at 4.431 million bpd.

Other participating countries maintained their allocations, with Kuwait at 2.676 million bpd, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million bpd, Algeria at 1.007 million bpd and Oman at 841,000 bpd.

The decision extended the group’s pause in production increases, following four consecutive months of adjustments, as participating countries continued to assess global market conditions.

Nigeria maintains OPEC production quota

Nigeria’s crude oil production has improved in recent months, allowing the country to consistently meet or marginally exceed its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, despite uncertainty surrounding global oil demand.

• The improved performance builds on gains recorded in 2025, when NNPC Limited reported that Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.77 million bpd, its highest level in five years.
• Crude output reached 1.53 million bpd in May 2026, exceeding the country’s production allocation for the first time that year.
• Nigeria maintained production above its quota through July, recording more than 1.5 million bpd for three consecutive months.

In August, combined crude oil and condensate production rose by 0.4% to approximately 1.678 million bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Crude-only output stood at 1.500 million bpd, meeting the quota for the fourth consecutive month.