Tinubu adds $11.4 billion to Nigeria’s external debt burden

Nigeria’s external debt has risen by $11.4 billion in the last three years under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, highlighting the increase in borrowing that has accompanied his administration’s economic reforms.

Checks by Nairametrics show that Nigeria’s total external debt stood at about $54.5 billion as of June 2026, compared with about $43.1 billion when Tinubu assumed office.

The increase has been driven by a combination of commercial borrowing, reliance on multilateral loans and, more recently, syndicated financing.

Domestic debt has also surged from about N59.1 trillion to about N91.5 trillion, driven partly by the securitisation of Ways and Means advances and increased Treasury Bills issuances.

Nairametrics broke down the composition of the total external debt pressures in an earlier article. 

World Bank Loans Drive Increase

One of the largest increases in Nigeria’s external borrowing came from loans obtained from the World Bank, according to data reviewed by Nairametrics Research.

• Nigeria’s debt to the World Bank rose from $15.4 billion to about $20.7 billion during the period.
• The first major increase occurred in June 2024 when Nigeria obtained $1.5 billion in Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation (RESET) Development Policy Financing.
• Large policy-based financing approvals under the Tinubu administration included the $2.25 billion RESET and ARMOR reform financing approved in June 2024.
• Another $1.57 billion was approved in September 2024 for the HOPE and SPIN programmes.
• In March 2025, the World Bank approved another $1.08 billion for education and resilience programmes.

In 2026, the Federal Government also engaged the World Bank for a fresh $1.25 billion loan under a proposed programme aimed at expanding access to finance, digital services and electricity, while supporting reforms in tax, trade and agriculture.

Eurobonds, UAE Loans Add Pressure

Nigeria’s Eurobond debt also increased over the last two and a half years as the country returned to the international commercial debt market. The first major increase occurred in December 2024 following a $2.2 billion dual-tranche Eurobond issuance.

• The December 2024 Eurobond comprised $700 million at 9.625% due in 2031 and $1.5 billion at 10.375% due in 2034.
• In November 2025, another $2.35 billion dual-tranche issuance followed, comprising $1.25 billion at 8.63% due in 2036 and $1.10 billion at 9.13% due in 2046.
• Nigeria also secured a $1.8 billion syndicated loan from First Abu Dhabi Bank, according to Debt Management Office data.
• In 2026, a $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement was agreed with the bank, with Nigeria drawing $1.5 billion in June 2026.

The IMF cautioned Nigeria over the derivatives-based financing arrangement, warning that such transactions are “often complex and lack transparency.”

Fitch also raised concerns about transparency, liquidity and creditor-recovery risks associated with structures such as Total Return Swaps and repo transactions.

The Federal Government defended the facility, saying no oil revenues or strategic national assets were pledged as collateral.

2026 Budget Requires More Borrowing

President Bola Tinubu signed the 2026 Appropriation Bill into law earlier in the year, approving total expenditure of N68.32 trillion for the fiscal year. The record budget is expected to be financed partly through deficit-backed borrowing, with the deficit estimated at about N31.4 trillion.

• Planned borrowing for 2026 increased to N29.20 trillion following the expansion in the proposed budget size and fiscal deficit.
• The Federal Government also targeted N2 trillion in borrowing through multilateral and bilateral project-tied loans.
• Tinubu said the expanded borrowing plan would reduce pressure on the domestic financial market, although domestic debt has also increased to about N91.5 trillion.
• Alongside the 2026 budget, lawmakers approved $6 billion in external loans, including the $5 billion First Abu Dhabi Bank facility and about $1 billion from UK Export Finance for two port projects.

The increase in domestic borrowing has come through instruments including FGN bonds and Treasury Bills, adding to the expansion in Nigeria’s overall debt stock.

Public Debt Hits N166.79 Trillion

Nigeria’s total public debt stock rose to N166.79 trillion as of June 30, 2026, from N159.35 trillion as of March 31, 2026. Domestic debt accounted for N91.59 trillion, representing 54.91% of the country’s total debt portfolio.

• Federal Government external debt stood at N65.77 trillion, representing 39.44% of total public debt.
• States and the Federal Capital Territory accounted for N9.42 trillion, or 5.65%, in external debt.
• Federal Government domestic debt stood at N87.00 trillion, representing 52.16% of the total, while states and the FCT accounted for N4.59 trillion, or 2.75%, of domestic debt.

Overall, the Federal Government accounted for about N152.77 trillion of Nigeria’s total public debt as of June 2026, while states and the FCT accounted for approximately N14.01 trillion. The figures underline the Federal Government’s dominant share of Nigeria’s public debt portfolio as external and domestic borrowing increased.