Nigeria breaks 14-month US trade deficit streak as urea fuels N797 billion surplus

Nigeria recorded a significant turnaround in bilateral trade as its trade balance with the United States swung sharply into a N797.50 billion surplus in June 2026, the highest monthly surplus between both countries and a sharp reversal from a 14-month run of trade deficits.

According to Nairametrics Research analysis of foreign trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s exports to the United States rose significantly to N1.19 trillion in June, while imports stood at N395.60 billion.

The surge in exports was likely driven largely by urea exports, which jumped by 203% quarter-on-quarter to N1.07 trillion in Q2 2026, from N353.04 billion in Q1 2026, making urea by far Nigeria’s largest export to the US during the period.

The turnaround was primarily export-led, as the exceptional increase in Nigeria’s exports to the United States significantly outweighed the increase in imports.

What the data is saying

Nigeria’s trade balance with the US improved by approximately N846.19 billion between May and June 2026, moving from a N48.69 billion deficit to a N797.50 billion surplus.

• Nigeria’s exports to the US increased from N216.48 billion in May to N1.19 trillion in June, representing a 451.1% month-on-month increase.
• Imports from the US increased from N265.17 billion to N395.60 billion, representing a 49.2% month-on-month rise.
• On a year-on-year basis, exports increased from N410.07 billion in June 2025 to N1.19 trillion in June 2026, representing a 190.9% increase.

In contrast, imports declined from N779.80 billion in June 2025 to N395.60 billion, representing a 49.3% year-on-year decline.

In June 2025, Nigeria recorded a N369.73 billion trade deficit with the US. One year later, this had become a N797.50 billion surplus, representing an improvement of approximately N1.17 trillion.

More Insights

The latest trade figures come amid changes to US tariff policy, with Nigeria among 38 countries affected by Washington’s latest trade measures aimed at curbing imports linked to forced labour and addressing what it considers unfair trade practices. The United States imposed a 12.5% tariff on Nigerian exports to the US.

• The tariff was announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) in a July 23 statement issued by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, which unveiled revised import duties ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from several major trading partners.
• The latest move is part of the Trump administration’s efforts to rebuild a near-global tariff system after the US Supreme Court struck down the president’s previous “reciprocal” tariffs imposed under a national emergencies law.
• The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) said Nigeria is unlikely to suffer a significant economic impact from the new 12.5% tariff because crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products remain exempt from the measures.

According to a policy brief signed by CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, the exempted products account for more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the United States, meaning the bulk of the country’s exports would remain unaffected.

Get up to speed

The June 2026 turnaround is particularly notable when viewed against Nigeria’s trade performance with the US in the preceding months, during which the country recorded 14 consecutive monthly trade deficits.

• Nigeria recorded its largest monthly deficit with the US in March 2026 at N1.10 trillion, as imports surged to N1.55 trillion compared with exports of N447.06 billion.
• By June, imports had fallen to N395.60 billion while exports climbed to N1.19 trillion, effectively converting the March deficit into a N797.50 billion surplus within three months.
• Despite the June turnaround, Nigeria’s overall trade position with the US remained negative in the first half of 2026. Imports stood at N3.81 trillion, compared with exports of N2.91 trillion, producing a deficit of approximately N902.52 billion.

In H1 2025, imports stood at approximately N3.58 trillion while exports were about N2.90 trillion, resulting in a deficit of N676.90 billion. This means the H1 2026 deficit increased by N225.62 billion, or about 33.33%.

Nigeria had previously recorded substantial positive trade balances with the US, including N258.1 billion in January 2024, N201.4 billion in April 2024, N794.3 billion in August 2024 and N191.6 billion in February 2025.

What you should know

Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US has historically been important on both the import and export sides, with NBS data consistently placing the country among Nigeria’s significant trading partners.

• The US accounted for 6.40% of Nigeria’s total exports in Q2 2026 and 6.97% of the country’s leading import sources during the same period.
• Urea exports surged by 203% quarter-on-quarter to N1.07 trillion in Q2 2026, up from N353.04 billion in Q1, making it by far Nigeria’s largest export to the US during the period.
• Although crude petroleum exports declined by 13% to N529.31 billion, the decline was more than offset by the surge in urea exports.

New export categories, including other petroleum gases valued at N78.54 billion, soybean products and natural rubber, also contributed to Nigeria’s export earnings.

The strong growth in these export categories significantly boosted Nigeria’s total exports to the US, helping the country move from a trade deficit to a surplus despite the increase in imports.